While the World Cup trophy remains the ultimate prize, the battle for the tournament’s highest individual scoring honour has added another layer of intrigue to the showpiece event.
Mbappe put himself firmly in control of the race after scoring twice in France’s thrilling 6-4 defeat to England in Saturday’s third-place play-off. The brace lifted the French forward to 10 goals for the tournament, making him the clear favourite to retain the Golden Boot.
Only Messi, who has eight goals heading into the final, can still catch him.
The Argentina captain and Mbappe are level on the first tiebreaker with four assists each, but Mbappe currently holds the advantage if the goals remain close.
Under FIFA’s rules, the Golden Boot is awarded to the player with the most goals. If players finish level, the winner is determined first by assists, before minutes played serve as the final tiebreaker.
Messi has played 712 minutes compared to Mbappe’s 769, meaning he would only retain the minutes-played advantage if he does not exceed 57 minutes on the pitch in the final.
As a result, the Argentine icon will need a special performance to snatch the award from his long-time rival. He must score at least three goals, score twice before being substituted within 57 minutes, or score twice while also registering an assist to overtake Mbappe.
Should Messi fail to meet those scenarios, Mbappe will become the first player to win back-to-back World Cup Golden Boots.
The battle between the two global superstars extends beyond this tournament.
Mbappe’s double against England took his World Cup career tally to 22 goals, moving him one ahead of Messi in the race to become the competition’s all-time leading scorer.
His 10-goal haul is also the highest by any player at a men’s World Cup this century. The last player to reach double figures in a single edition was Germany’s Gerd Muller, who scored 10 goals at the 1970 tournament.
Only a select group of football legends have scored eight or more goals at a single World Cup, placing Mbappe alongside names such as Just Fontaine, Sandor Kocsis, Ademir, Eusebio, Guillermo Stabile and Ronaldo.
The Golden Boot standings heading into the final are led by Mbappe with 10 goals and four assists, followed by Messi with eight goals and four assists. England midfielder Jude Bellingham sits third with seven goals and one assist after scoring in the third-place play-off, edging Norway’s Erling Haaland, who also has seven goals but no assists.
France’s Ousmane Dembele and England captain Harry Kane have six goals apiece, while Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal remains an outside contender with five goals ahead of the final.
For Messi, Sunday’s showdown with Spain offers one final opportunity to add another remarkable chapter to his illustrious World Cup career. For Mbappe, the wait begins as he watches to see whether his remarkable tournament will end with another Golden Boot.
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