In a statement released on May 25, S&P said the stable outlook reflects confidence in Rwanda’s macroeconomic stability and policy direction as the country continues implementing long-term development priorities.
“While short-term moderation is expected, the overall growth path remains stable and resilient, reflecting expectations of continued steady economic activity in the medium term,” the statement said.
Rwanda recorded strong economic growth of 9.3% in 2025, up from 7.2% in 2024, driven by solid performance across agriculture, industry, and services.
While growth is expected to moderate to around 6.8% in 2026 due to rising global fuel costs linked to tensions in the Middle East, S&P projects the economy to recover gradually and average about 7.1% between 2027 and 2029.
The agency said the medium-term outlook remains stable, supported by continued economic activity and institutional resilience.
S&P also highlighted Rwanda’s continued investment in major infrastructure projects, particularly the New Kigali International Airport (NKIA), describing it as a strategic development expected to strengthen regional connectivity, expand tourism, and support long-term economic diversification.
Construction of the airport remains on schedule and is being supported through innovative financing arrangements, reflecting Rwanda’s broader strategy to position itself as a regional hub for investment and services.
A key factor supporting the rating affirmation is Rwanda’s debt profile. According to S&P, approximately 89% of the country’s external debt is concessional, contracted at long maturities and relatively low interest rates, helping keep debt servicing costs manageable.
The report further noted that fiscal consolidation efforts continue to advance through improved domestic revenue mobilisation and prudent public expenditure management, helping maintain debt sustainability and reduce risks to fiscal stability.
S&P acknowledged that Rwanda remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly as a net oil importer exposed to global fuel price fluctuations linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
However, the agency noted that “proactive measures such as expanding fuel reserves and diversifying supply sources help strengthen stability and resilience,” reflecting confidence in Rwanda’s ability to manage external pressures while maintaining overall economic stability.
The latest assessment follows a similar decision earlier this year by Fitch Ratings, which in March revised Rwanda’s outlook to Stable from Negative while affirming its ‘B+’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating.
Fitch cited improved access to external financing, strong donor support, easing regional tensions, and sustained economic growth as factors underpinning its decision. The agency also projected Rwanda’s economic growth to remain above 7% through 2027, significantly outperforming many countries within the same rating category.
Both assessments come as Rwanda continues pursuing large-scale infrastructure investments, including the New Kigali International Airport and expansion plans for RwandAir, while seeking to strengthen its role as a regional centre for innovation, trade, and investment.
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