The reigning European champions booked their place in Sunday’s final in Arlington, Texas, where they will face either England or Argentina, while France must now turn their attention to the third-place playoff.
Didier Deschamps’ side entered the semifinal full of confidence after impressive knockout victories over Morocco, Sweden and Paraguay. Led by captain Kylian Mbappé, France were among the favourites to lift the trophy after another impressive World Cup campaign. However, they found Spain’s disciplined defence difficult to break down as the European champions controlled the contest from start to finish.
Spain took the lead midway through the first half after Salvadoran referee Ivan Barton awarded a penalty for a foul by France left-back Lucas Digne on teenage winger Lamine Yamal. Mikel Oyarzabal calmly converted the spot kick, beating goalkeeper Mike Maignan to score his fifth goal of the tournament.
France’s problems deepened shortly afterward when defender William Saliba was forced off with a recurrence of a lower back injury, disrupting an already difficult evening for Deschamps’ men.
Les Bleus struggled to create meaningful opportunities throughout the opening half, failing to register a shot on target as Spain dominated possession and dictated the tempo.
Seeking a response after the break, Deschamps introduced Desire Doue in an attempt to inject more attacking energy. But just moments later, Spain doubled their advantage with an excellent team move.
Dani Olmo combined neatly with Pedro Porro, who collected the return pass before calmly slotting the ball past Maignan to make it 2-0 and put Spain firmly in control.
Trailing by two goals, Deschamps introduced Theo Hernandez and Rayan Cherki in search of a comeback. Mbappé, who had inspired France throughout the tournament, was kept largely quiet by Spain’s well-organized defense and was unable to produce the moment of brilliance his side desperately needed.
Spain continued to defend resolutely, frustrating France’s star-studded attack. The European champions have now conceded just one goal throughout the tournament while combining defensive discipline with the creativity of players such as Yamal and Olmo.
The victory sends Spain into their first World Cup final since lifting the trophy in South Africa in 2010. They are now one win away from becoming the first champions of the expanded 48-team FIFA World Cup.
For France, the defeat ends their bid for a third World Cup title and denies Mbappé the opportunity to lead Les Bleus into a third consecutive World Cup final. The Real Madrid forward had once again been central to France’s impressive run, but he and fellow attacking stars Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise were effectively neutralised by Spain’s disciplined defensive display.
The defeat also marks the end of Didier Deschamps’ World Cup journey as France coach after 14 years in charge. Despite being eliminated from title contention, Les Bleus will remain in the tournament to contest Saturday’s third-place playoff against the loser of the second semifinal between England and Argentina. The winner of that match will claim the bronze medal.
Speaking after the match, Spain defender Pedro Porro described reaching the final as “a dream come true.”
“We knew that to get close to the final we needed to have the ball. We knew that countering their strengths was key, and we did that. So we’re really happy.”
Speaking after the match, Mbappe didn’t hide his frustration at France’s performance in the game.
“I don’t think we played the match we wanted to play – whether tactically, technically, or in terms of our overall performance level,” Mbappe told French broadcaster M6.
“And when you don’t do what you’re supposed to do in a World Cup semifinal, you don’t win.
“Our goal was to press them high up the pitch to prevent them from settling into that slow, controlled rhythm – because when it comes to controlling the game, they are better than us. We failed to do that,” the Real Madrid star added.
While France’s hopes of lifting the trophy are over, Mbappé and his teammates will still have one final opportunity to end their campaign on a positive note in the third-place playoff. The match will also mark France’s final World Cup appearance under Deschamps before a new era is expected to begin, with Zinedine Zidane widely tipped to succeed him as head coach.
Spain, meanwhile, will now focus on Sunday’s final, where they will attempt to win their second World Cup title and their first since 2010.
Pedro Porro scores Spain’s second goal.Oyarzabal scores from the penalty spot. Mbappé looks dejected after France’s 2-0 defeat to Spain.
Both sides now accuse the other of violating the agreement first. While neither has formally declared the MoU void, the latest escalation has cast doubt over whether diplomacy can survive another round of fighting.
Has the MoU collapsed?
The clearest signal yet came from U.S. President Donald Trump, who formally notified Congress in a letter dated Friday that military operations against Iran had resumed under his direction.
In a letter to lawmakers, Trump described the strikes on Iran that began on July 7 as “military action consistent with my responsibility to protect Americans and United States’ interests both at home and abroad.” This notification starts a new 60-day period during which the Trump administration can conduct military operations in the region without congressional approval.
On Monday, Trump said on Truth Social that the United States was “reinstating the Iranian blockade, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving,” and proposed charging a 20 percent fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Tehran insists it is not the side that abandoned the agreement.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that the MoU had entered a “crisis phase” because Washington had continuously violated its obligations. He said Iran would follow a principle of “commitment for commitment” and warned that if the United States continues breaching the deal, Iran would no longer see any reason to fulfill its own obligations.
Can diplomacy revive?
Before the latest escalation, the two sides had been using regional mediators to preserve the fragile agreement.
According to Axios, Washington demanded that Iran publicly reaffirm that the Strait of Hormuz remained open and “stop firing on commercial ships,” arguing that Tehran had violated the MoU.
Trump also said last week that the United States had agreed to continue talks with Iran, although he simultaneously declared that the ceasefire was “over.”
Iran denied requesting new negotiations but indicated it remained willing to engage through regional intermediaries, including Qatar, according to Qatar’s Al Jazeera television.
The fighting has nevertheless intensified. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said its latest wave of strikes against Iran concluded late Monday after strikes on military targets across Iran, including Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas, to “further degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping.”
Iran has continued missile and drone attacks on U.S. positions and regional targets, including Oman, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait.
The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) said Tuesday that it has launched missile and drone attacks on the U.S. Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain. “The retaliatory operation continues,” the statement said.
Who controls Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz has once again become the main flashpoint.
Early Sunday, Iran’s IRGC announced that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed “until further notice” and until “the end of U.S. interference in this region.”
The U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center and the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command said Sunday that the southern route remains operational despite Iranian claims, adding that “U.S. forces are prepared to maintain freedom of navigation and safeguard lawful commerce.”
On Monday, CENTCOM announced that it would resume blockading maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports beginning at 4 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Tuesday.
Baghaei said Sunday that arrangements for the future administration of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz must be made through consultations with Oman.
Those competing visions directly contradict one of the MoU’s central provisions, which envisioned the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade while Iran ensured safe passage for international shipping.
For now, the memorandum has not been formally abandoned. But with military operations expanding, the agreement appears to be surviving more on paper than in practice.
Fresh U.S. airstrikes and Iranian retaliation have plunged Washington and Tehran back into open conflict less than a month after they signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at ending the war and paving the way for broader negotiations.
The update brings the total number of individually identified elephants in Akagera to 115, including 65 females and 50 males. These identified individuals represent approximately 80% of the park’s estimated elephant population, providing valuable insight into the composition, movements, and dynamics of Akagera’s herds.
Individual elephant identification is an important part of Akagera’s long-term conservation efforts, enabling monitoring teams to track individual animals, understand population trends, and support informed conservation and management decisions. Each new identification adds to the growing body of knowledge that helps protect and manage one of Africa’s most iconic species.
Established in 1934, Akagera National Park covers 1,120 square kilometres and is renowned for its diverse wildlife, including the Big Five — lions, leopards, elephants, and buffalo — alongside many other species that contribute to the park’s unique biodiversity.
The park’s remarkable wildlife recovery story has been highlighted by the growth of its lion population, which was revealed in August last year to have increased from just seven individuals to 62 over the past decade. This significant recovery demonstrates the impact of sustained conservation efforts, including improved protection, monitoring, and habitat management.
Additionally, in June last year, Akagera welcomed 70 southern white rhinos translocated from South Africa in a historic cross-continental conservation effort. The arrival significantly strengthened the park’s rhino population and built on the successful reintroduction of 30 white rhinos in 2021.
Together, these milestones reflect the continued success of conservation initiatives at Akagera, where careful monitoring, species reintroductions, and dedicated management are helping restore and safeguard some of Africa’s most iconic wildlife populations.
INDIVIDUAL ELEPHANT IDENTIFICATION UPDATE: The bi-monthly elephant survey was completed, resulting in the addition of six new individuals to the database. Akagera now has 115 individually identified elephants, comprising 65 females and 50 males, representing approximately 80% of… pic.twitter.com/kUCIOVQ1v9
— Akagera National Park (@AkageraPark) July 14, 2026
The budget comes as government institutions begin implementing their performance commitments for the 2026/27 financial year. To finance these national priorities, authorities are leaning heavily on domestic revenues. The Rwanda Revenue Authority, led by Commissioner General Ronald Niwenshuti, has set a target of collecting Rwf 4.6 trillion in domestic taxes, while local government taxes are expected to generate Rwf 165.9 billion.
For ordinary Rwandans, the new fiscal year brings several notable changes to the prices of everyday goods and services due to shifting VAT rules, digital taxation measures, and tighter tax enforcement.
Here is a breakdown of how the new budget affects your wallet.
VAT exemption phase-outs on fuel, phones, and tech
For more than 15 years, petroleum products, mobile phones, and other ICT equipment enjoyed VAT exemptions in Rwanda. Under the government’s medium-term revenue strategy, these exemptions officially ended. Consequently, these products now attract the standard 18% Value Added Tax (VAT).
Because VAT is ultimately paid by the consumer, this tax is directly reflected in retail prices. For example, a smartphone or laptop that previously cost Rwf 250,000 may now cost upwards of Rwf 300,000 once VAT and distribution costs are factored in. While the tax on petroleum products feeds into overall transport and distribution costs, the government deployed a subsidy of Rwf 47.7 billion between March and June 2026 to help cushion retail fuel prices and prevent a sharper spike in transport fares.
Online purchases and digital services attract 18% VAT
Under Ministerial Order No. 004/26/10/TC, signed in April 2026, VAT is now officially charged on goods and services bought online, regardless of whether the seller is local or foreign. Foreign platforms selling to Rwandan consumers are legally required to register for VAT in Rwanda or appoint a local representative.
This new rule broadly affects online film and entertainment streaming subscriptions, software downloads, application purchases, cloud storage, and goods ordered from foreign online marketplaces. It also covers distance learning, virtual conferences, and online training programs, unless they are specifically exempt under existing educational laws. If foreign digital companies fail to comply with these rules, local financial institutions are mandated to withhold the 18% VAT during payment processing.
Foreign digital platforms pay a 1.5% digital services tax
On top of VAT, foreign digital companies operating in Rwanda will pay a 1.5% Digital Services Tax (DST) on the local revenues they generate. While this tax is charged directly to the multinational corporations, history shows that platforms frequently pass these operational tax costs down to the final consumer.
Gradual airtime tax increase continues
The excise duty on telecommunications, which includes airtime and mobile data bundles, continues its legislated, step-by-step climb toward 15% by 2027. This fiscal year brings another incremental step, meaning phone calls and data plans will cost slightly more.
Stricter VAT exemptions for local manufacturers
Until recently, industrial machinery and raw materials enjoyed automatic VAT exemptions. Under the April 2026 ministerial order, this tax break is no longer automatic. To qualify, manufacturing, assembling, or mining companies must be registered in Rwanda, demonstrate a direct link between the requested exemptions and their operations, maintain clean records, and prove that the value added to raw materials is at least 30%. If local factories face higher upfront costs, some of that pressure may trickle down to the retail prices of locally made goods.
Motorists: road maintenance levies and annual fees
Motorists face a structured series of levies to maintain the country’s road networks. First, petrol and diesel are subject to a 15% road maintenance levy based on the imported CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) value. Additionally, the strategic fuel storage levy remains active, standing at Rwf 50 per litre, which is an increase from the historical Rwf 32.73.
Vehicle owners must also pay a fixed annual road use charge depending on the class of vehicle. Under this fee structure, passenger cars and Jeeps are charged Rwf 50,000 per year, while pick-ups, microbuses, minibuses, and buses pay Rwf 100,000. Larger transport vehicles face higher rates, with trucks and small trailers paying Rwf 120,000, and large trailers paying Rwf 150,000.
Retained 2025 excise and tourism taxes
Taxes introduced during the previous fiscal year remain in full force. This includes the 3% tourism accommodation levy on hotel and lodging stays, as well as the 0.2% environmental levy on imported goods packaged in plastic materials.
Imported hybrid cars continue to be taxed based on their age, with vehicles under 3 years old taxed at 5%, those aged 3 to 8 years taxed at 10%, and those older than 8 years taxed at 15%. Only hybrid vehicles fully assembled in Rwanda are exempt from this excise tax.
As a small relief, the highly discussed 15% tax on bank and mobile money transaction fees has been deferred and will not take effect until July 1, 2027. Additionally, fully electric vehicles (EVs) remain completely VAT-free until June 30, 2028.
Tighter EBM enforcement and consumer rewards
A major portion of the government’s revenue strategy relies on narrowing the tax gap through better collection rather than creating entirely new taxes. The RRA is heavily enforcing Electronic Billing Machine (EBM) compliance.
To incentivize tax compliance, the RRA continues its Tengamara na TVA program, which has registered over 1 million consumers. Under this initiative, shoppers who request an EBM receipt can receive a 10% cash reward linked to the VAT shown on their receipts. Furthermore, the government is planning reforms to the EBM system that will allow customers to initiate the receipt-generation process themselves, with the seller simply approving it.
Where your money goes
The Rwf 7.8 trillion budget, presented to Parliament by the Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Yusuf Murangwa, is split into two major spending categories. Recurrent expenditure takes up Rwf 4.8 trillion, or 61.3% of the budget, which covers public sector salaries, administrative running costs, and public service operations. The remaining Rwf 3 trillion, representing 38.7% of the budget, is allocated to development expenditure to fund key infrastructure and development programs.
When looked at through strategic pillars, the economic transformation pillar receives the largest share of the budget at 62.9%, which is equivalent to Rwf 4.9 trillion. This funds agricultural inputs, fertilizer subsidies, electricity grid expansion, and key infrastructure, including Rwf 474.2 billion for the New Kigali International Airport in Bugesera. Meanwhile, the social welfare pillar receives 22%, or Rwf 1.8 trillion, to fund health services, education infrastructure, and community social protection safety nets. The remaining 15.1%, or Rwf 1.2 trillion, is allocated to the governance pillar to cover national security, public administration, and judicial services.
Ultimately, the 2026/27 budget is a delicate balancing act. While everyday digital services, fuel, and imports will cost slightly more, the government is betting that stronger tax compliance and robust domestic revenue collection will successfully fund major projects to drive Rwanda’s long-term economic growth.
For ordinary Rwandans, the new fiscal year brings several notable changes to the prices of everyday goods and services due to shifting VAT rules, digital taxation measures, and tighter tax enforcement.
The examinations will be conducted at 1,746 examination centres across the country, with candidates sitting for both Ordinary Level (O-Level) and Advanced Level (A-Level) assessments.
According to NESA, 149,533 candidates are registered for the O-Level examinations, while 108,722 candidates will sit for A-Level examinations.
The number of candidates has increased compared to the previous academic year, when 255,498 candidates were registered for the 2024/2025 Secondary National Examinations.
NESA also confirmed that 879 candidates with disabilities will participate in this year’s examinations.
“The candidates will receive the necessary accommodations and special support measures to ensure they can take part in the exams on an equal basis with other learners,” NESA said.
The Secondary School National Examinations are conducted annually to assess learners’ knowledge and competencies at the end of their secondary education cycles and determine progression to further education and training opportunities.
The examinations will be conducted at 1,746 examination centres across the country, with candidates sitting for both Ordinary Level (O-Level) and Advanced Level (A-Level) assessments.
The complaint, submitted on July 10, 2026, details a series of actions by state authorities and individuals linked to the ruling establishment that the legal team avers amount to crimes against humanity in different parts of the country. The ICC prosecutor’s office is expected to assess the submission before deciding whether any further action, including a possible preliminary examination, is warranted.
The lawyers cited 11 incidents, including deaths and injuries at Kinshasa’s Makala prison during a 2024 attempted prison break, as well as killings in Lubumbashi, Kolwezi and other parts of the former Katanga region.
Hervé Diakiese, one of the lawyers involved in the case, accused the youth movement Force du Progrès, which has been associated by critics with President Félix Tshisekedi’s ruling UDPS party, of involvement in some of the cited abuses. Human Rights Watch has previously raised concerns over violence involving members of the group during political unrest, while the UDPS has rejected accusations linking the party to such acts and said individuals may have been misusing the group’s name.
Diakiese also accused some political actors of promoting ethnic-based rhetoric favouring members of the Luba community, President Tshisekedi’s ethnic group.
“There are statements showing a sense of superiority among some people from the President’s community,” he said, alleging that some officials and individuals close to power have used language suggesting that the Luba are not simply holders of political power but represent power itself.
Another lawyer involved in the complaint, Bernard Maingain, said the decision to seek international justice was motivated by Congolese institutions’ to address the said abuses.
“Article 15 of the Rome Statute has been respected,” Maingain said, referring to the provision that allows individuals or groups to submit information to the ICC prosecutor. He argued that the complaint had been properly filed and should be examined according to ICC procedures.
The complaint was also submitted in Belgium because some of the individuals mentioned in the case are said to hold Belgian nationality.
Following the filing of the complaint, the next stage will involve reviewing the
allegations and determining whether they fall within the court’s jurisdiction and meet the criteria for further action.
Bernard Maingain, one of the lawyers involved in the complaint, said the decision to seek international justice was motivated by Congolese institutions’ failure to address the abuses in question.The complaint, submitted on July 10, 2026, details a series of actions by state authorities and individuals linked to the ruling establishment that the legal team avers amount to crimes against humanity in different parts of the country.
The National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) received the Innovative Project for Impact Award for its AI-Assisted Coding of Multilingual Job Descriptions for Faster Employment Statistics project, which uses artificial intelligence to classify job and economic activity descriptions in Kinyarwanda, English and French.
The AI-powered tool is designed to accelerate the processing of Labour Force Survey data by automating the coding of job descriptions, a critical step in producing employment statistics. The innovation is expected to improve efficiency, reduce processing time and strengthen the production of timely official statistics for policy and planning.
The award was announced during Innovate for Impact 2026, a programme under the AI for Good platform by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) that identifies and supports AI solutions developed to address real-world challenges. The 2026 edition recognised 59 projects selected from nearly 400 global submissions.
The AI for Good Summit highlighted projects demonstrating how artificial intelligence can be applied to practical challenges, particularly in areas where scalable and resource-efficient solutions can deliver meaningful impact.
NISR’s project was among innovations recognised for its ability to address local needs while offering a model that can be adapted to other contexts. The use of multilingual AI is particularly significant in environments where language diversity can create challenges for data processing and digital services.
The project was developed under the first cohort of the Data Science Capacity Building Initiative (DSCBI) through collaboration with the Ministry of ICT and Innovation, the Rwanda Information Society Authority (RISA), the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences – Rwanda (AIMS Rwanda), Mastercard, and Cenfri. The initiative aimed to strengthen data science capacity and support the adoption of advanced technologies in addressing development challenges.
NISR said the recognition reflects the Government of Rwanda’s visionary leadership and commitment to leveraging artificial intelligence to strengthen the production of official statistics.
The award comes as Rwanda continues to expand its focus on responsible AI development and adoption. President Paul Kagame attended the AI for Good Global Summit 2026 in Geneva, Switzerland, in his capacity as Co-Chair of the newly launched AI for Good Global Commission.
Addressing heads of state, technology leaders, investors and development partners, President Kagame called for greater investment in infrastructure, skills development and accountable governance to ensure AI benefits communities worldwide.
“We must be intentional about designing, funding, and governing AI so that it can reach its full potential,” Kagame said last Wednesday.
He identified access to computing infrastructure, connectivity and reliable energy as key priorities, alongside the development of skills needed for an AI-driven economy and governance frameworks that promote trust and transparency.
President Kagame also highlighted Rwanda’s practical applications of AI, including the Health Intelligence Center, which uses real-time health data and artificial intelligence to support disease prediction and policy decisions.
In June 2026, Rwanda’s Cabinet approved the establishment of the National Artificial Intelligence Agency, which will coordinate AI development, innovation, investment, adoption and governance as part of the country’s digital transformation agenda.
The AI for Good Global Summit, organised by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), continues to serve as a platform for showcasing AI solutions that advance inclusive development. Rwanda’s recognition at the summit demonstrates how locally developed technologies can contribute to global efforts to use artificial intelligence for social and economic progress.
The National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) received the Innovative Project for Impact Award for its AI-Assisted Coding of Multilingual Job Descriptions for Faster Employment Statistics project.The award was announced during Innovate for Impact 2026, a programme under the AI for Good platform by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) that identifies and supports AI solutions developed to address real-world challenges. The 2026 edition recognised 59 projects selected from nearly 400 global submissions.
The question is no longer distant. France has officially set the first round of its next presidential election for April 18, 2027, with a possible run-off on May 2, 2027. Macron, who has served two consecutive terms, cannot run again. This means that in less than a year, France will have a new president, and Rwanda will be dealing with a new political personality at the Élysée.
For Rwanda, this transition is important because the Macron years marked one of the most significant diplomatic resets between Kigali and Paris since the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi. Relations that had for decades been shaped by suspicion, accusations and unresolved historical grievances were gradually reopened through a more direct political conversation.
Macron’s approach to Rwanda was unusually personal and symbolic. In May 2021, during his visit to Kigali, he stood at the Kigali Genocide Memorial and recognised France’s heavy historical and political responsibility in Rwanda. He said that only survivors could grant forgiveness to France.
“Standing here today, with humility and respect, by your side, I have come to recognize our responsibilities,” said Macron.
That moment did not erase the past, but it changed the diplomatic atmosphere. It allowed both countries to move from confrontation toward cooperation. In June 2026, Macron and President Paul Kagame jointly inaugurated a memorial in Paris in honour of the victims of the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi. Macron described the memorial as placing the genocide “at the heart” of France’s capital and history, and as the result of a long search for truth.
This is why the end of the Macron era raises a serious question. Will the next French president preserve this relationship, deepen it, cool it down or reverse its symbolism?
The answer depends on who wins.
At this stage, the race appears fragmented. The far-right National Rally is in a strong position, while the centre is divided between former prime ministers Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Reuters has reported that Philippe and Attal are seen as the favoured figures to lead the centrist challenge, while polls have placed the National Rally in a leading position.
Gabriel Attal, the candidate of continuity
Gabriel Attal may represent the clearest continuation of the Macron line. He formally launched his presidential bid in May 2026, joining a crowded centrist race. He is young, ambitious and closely associated with Macron’s political family, even though he is trying to show that he has his own identity.
For Rwanda, an Attal presidency would likely mean continuity. There is no strong public record suggesting hostility toward Kigali. Having been part of the Macron era, he would probably preserve the main pillars of the reset: recognition of historical responsibility, diplomatic cooperation, cultural ties and pragmatic engagement with Africa.
However, Attal would also inherit France’s broader position on the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. France has condemned the M23 offensive as being made possible by Rwanda’s active support, while also supporting diplomatic solutions.Rwanda has repeatedly refuted backing AFC/M23, arguing that the movement is made up of Congolese citizens with longstanding grievances against the Congolese state.
Therefore, under Attal, Rwanda-France relations would likely remain warm, but not without pressure on the DRC issue.
Gabriel Attal, who formally launched his presidential bid in May 2026, may represent the clearest continuation of the Macron line.
Édouard Philippe, the pragmatic centre-right option
Édouard Philippe is another major figure to watch. Macron’s former prime minister has spent years positioning himself as a credible successor, especially for voters of the centre and centre-right. Le Monde has described him as trying to establish himself as the natural successor to Macron, while also distancing himself from the current president.
For Rwanda, Philippe would probably mean continuity, but with less emotion and symbolism than Macron. He is likely to approach Rwanda through a pragmatic lens: diplomacy, economic interests, security, Europe-Africa relations and regional stability.
A Philippe presidency would probably not dismantle the reconciliation work achieved under Macron. But it might make the relationship less personal. Kigali could still count on serious engagement from Paris, but perhaps not the same level of symbolic investment that Macron brought to genocide memory and bilateral repair.
Macron’s former prime minister, Édouard Philippe, has spent years positioning himself as a credible successor, especially for voters of the centre and centre-right.
Jordan Bardella, the uncertain far-right alternative
Jordan Bardella may be the most important unknown. The president of the National Rally has emerged as one of the most serious contenders for 2027. A Reuters report in November 2025 said an Odoxa poll predicted that Bardella could win the next presidential election against any opponent tested at that time.
Bardella’s Rwanda policy is not clearly defined. He has not built his political identity around the Rwanda question. But he comes from a political family whose historic instinct has been sceptical, sometimes hostile, toward President Paul Kagame’s government and toward France’s language of historical responsibility.
This matters because the National Rally has traditionally defended the honour of the French army and rejected what it sees as excessive “repentance” in foreign policy. If Bardella becomes president, he may choose pragmatism, especially if he wants to appear presidential and internationally credible. But Rwanda should expect a colder, more cautious and less emotionally invested France.
The relationship would probably not collapse automatically under Bardella. France has interests in the Great Lakes region, and Rwanda has become too important diplomatically, economically and strategically to be ignored. But the warmth of the Macron-Kagame chapter would likely fade.
Jordan Bardella, the president of the National Rally, has emerged as one of the most serious contenders for 2027.
Marine Le Pen, the most difficult scenario for Kigali
Marine Le Pen would likely represent the most complicated scenario for Rwanda. Her record is far clearer than Bardella’s. In 2011, she strongly criticised Nicolas Sarkozy for receiving President Kagame in Paris. In that statement, she described Kagame as a dictator, defended the French army and Operation Turquoise, and accused Kigali of dishonouring the French army by accusing France of involvement in the genocide.
That language is not a small detail. It reflects a political view of Rwanda that is fundamentally different from Macron’s. Where Macron chose recognition, Le Pen has historically chosen defence of France’s military record and confrontation with Kigali’s accusations.
Her candidacy is also legally uncertain. Reuters reported in January 2026 that Le Pen had been barred from public office for five years over a conviction for misusing EU funds, and that her appeal would determine whether she could run in 2027. If she cannot run, Bardella is expected to stand for the National Rally.
If Le Pen were elected, Rwanda-France relations would likely cool sharply. The risk would not only be diplomatic distance, but also a symbolic reversal of Macron’s reconciliation work.
Marine Le Pen would likely represent the most complicated scenario for Rwanda.
Raphaël Glucksmann, sympathetic on memory but demanding on politics
Raphaël Glucksmann presents a different kind of complexity. On the history of the Genocide against the Tutsi, he may be among the French political figures most aware of the depth of the issue. He co-directed Tuez-les tous !, a documentary on the genocide and the role of France, which examined the international failure to stop the killings and the controversy surrounding French policy at the time.
This background could make him sympathetic to Rwanda’s long-standing position on historical truth. A Glucksmann presidency would probably not reverse Macron’s recognition of France’s responsibility. On memory, he could even go further than some centrist politicians.
But Glucksmann is also a strong human-rights advocate. His relationship with Kigali would likely remain respectful on historical issues while placing greater emphasis on governance, human rights and regional security, including the conflict in eastern DRC. These issues would likely feature more prominently in bilateral engagement.
Raphaël Glucksmann brings a nuanced understanding of the Genocide against the Tutsi’s history and legacy.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, recognition of France’s responsibility but strong criticism of Kagame
Jean-Luc Mélenchon would also bring a mixed approach. He supports France recognising its responsibility in Rwanda, and has criticised those who dismiss that process as repentance. But he has also described Paul Kagame’s government as authoritarian and has linked Rwanda to mass violence in the DRC.
His political movement, La France Insoumise, has taken an even harder line on the DRC conflict. In January 2025, it called for strong sanctions against Rwandan political and military leaders and a total embargo on Rwandan mineral exports.
A Mélenchon presidency would therefore be difficult for Kigali. It would not be hostile to Rwanda because of genocide memory. On that point, Mélenchon is closer to historical recognition. But it would probably be very confrontational on the DRC, human rights and Kagame’s rule.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon takes a mixed position: supporting France’s responsibility over Rwanda while criticising Kagame’s government.
Bruno Retailleau, cautious conservatism
Bruno Retailleau, the candidate of the traditional right, is harder to assess on Rwanda specifically. He does not have the same visible Rwanda record as Le Pen, Macron or Mélenchon. His approach would likely be conservative, state-oriented and security-focused.
For Kigali, this would probably mean a cooler but manageable relationship. Retailleau would not necessarily seek confrontation with Rwanda, but he would be unlikely to invest heavily in the symbolic dimension of reconciliation. The relationship could become more administrative, less presidential and more dependent on regional developments in the Great Lakes.
Bruno Retailleau, the candidate of the traditional right, is harder to assess on Rwanda specifically.
The DRC question could shape everything
Whoever replaces Macron will inherit one sensitive file: the conflict in eastern DRC. This issue now sits at the centre of how many Western capitals view Rwanda. France has taken a firm position at the United Nations, including condemning the M23 offensive as supported by Rwanda. At the same time, Macron has also warned against isolating Rwanda and has argued for continued dialogue rather than purely punitive measures.
This balance may not survive intact under Macron’s successor. A centrist president may keep the same careful line: pressure on security issues, but continued engagement with Kigali. A far-right president may cool the historical reconciliation agenda. A left-wing president may maintain recognition of France’s responsibility in 1994 while becoming tougher on Rwanda’s current regional policy.
For Rwanda, the lesson is clear. The relationship with France has improved significantly, but it should not be taken for granted. Much of its current warmth was built around Macron’s personal political choice to confront France’s past and rebuild trust with Kigali. Institutions, trade, culture and diplomacy may preserve the relationship, but personalities will shape its temperature.
The most favourable scenarios for Rwanda would likely be Attal or Philippe. Both would probably maintain continuity, although with different levels of enthusiasm. Glucksmann would be constructive on genocide memory but more demanding politically. Bardella would be uncertain and colder. Le Pen would be the most difficult. Mélenchon would be confrontational, especially in the DRC.
After Macron, Rwanda-France relations are unlikely to return to the deep hostility of the past. Too much has changed. But the exceptional warmth of the Macron-Kagame years may not be automatic. The next phase will depend on whether France’s new president sees Rwanda as a strategic African partner, a historical responsibility, a regional problem or all three at once.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), the Urban CPI, the country’s headline measure for monetary policy, increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, while the annual average inflation rate for the 12 months to June stood at 9.3%.
Transport, which has been affected by rising fuel prices stemming from the Middle East crisis, remained one of the biggest drivers of inflation. Transport costs rose 26.0% compared with June last year and increased 1.2% over the previous month. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels also continued to exert pressure on household budgets, recording a 20.5% annual increase and a 0.7% monthly rise.
Healthcare prices posted the sharpest annual increase among major consumer spending categories, soaring 71.2% year-on-year, while restaurants and hotels became 15.9% more expensive. Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics also recorded a 13.0% annual increase.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages, which account for the largest share of household spending, increased 7.5% annually despite declining 0.3% from May. Within the category, vegetable prices rose 13.1% year-on-year, matching the increase recorded for meat, while non-alcoholic beverages rose 9.4%.
The Energy Index remained elevated, increasing 44.8% annually, while the Local Goods Index rose 14.7%, outpacing the 10.5% increase recorded for imported goods. Fresh products increased 9.1% over the year.
Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, stood at 12.3%, indicating that underlying price pressures remain strong across the economy. The annual average inflation rate over the past 12 months was 9.3%.
In rural areas, annual inflation reached 12.1%, with consumer prices increasing 0.4% over the previous month. Nationally, the Overall Rwanda Consumer Price Index rose 12.7% compared with June 2025 and also increased 0.4% on a monthly basis.
The NISR compiles the Consumer Price Index using prices collected for approximately 1,622 products across Rwanda. Every month, the institute gathers more than 29,482 price observations in urban areas and 10,744 in rural areas from markets, shops, schools, hospitals and other outlets.
The Urban CPI remains the principal inflation indicator used by the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) to assess price stability and guide monetary policy decisions.
Transport, which has been affected by rising fuel prices stemming from the Middle East crisis, remained one of the biggest drivers of inflation. Transport costs rose 26.0% compared with June last year and increased 1.2% over the previous month.
In a statement shared on her Instagram Story on Sunday, the singer, whose real name is Zuhura Othman Soud, said she was making the announcement with a “heavy heart” after six years together.
“My former partner and I are now separated and going through a divorce,” she wrote. “After six years of being together, I have finally decided to choose myself.”
Zuchu said she wishes Diamond, whose real name is Naseeb Abdul Juma, and his family well as she turns her attention to healing, her health and her music career.
“Our chapter has come to an end. We tried, but Allah has His own plans, and I have no choice but to accept them,” she added.
The announcement came a day after fans noticed Zuchu’s absence from the birthday celebration of Diamond’s mother, Mama Dangote, prompting speculation that the couple’s relationship had once again hit a rough patch.
The pair first confirmed their romance in 2021 after months of speculation, quickly becoming one of the region’s most talked-about celebrity couples. Their relationship frequently made headlines, with public declarations of love often followed by reports of breakups and reconciliations.
After years of an on-and-off romance, the couple married in a private Islamic ceremony last year, raising hopes that they had finally found lasting stability.
Diamond has not publicly commented on Zuchu’s announcement.
Beyond her personal life, Zuchu has emerged as one of East Africa’s biggest female music stars since signing with WCB Wasafi in 2020. The daughter of legendary taarab singer Khadija Kopa, she has built a successful career with hit songs including Sukari, Wana, Cheche and Honey.
Whether this marks the final chapter of the couple’s on-and-off romance remains to be seen. Their relationship has survived several public breakups in the past, leaving fans divided over whether this separation will be permanent or lead to yet another reconciliation. As it stands, however, Zuchu says she is choosing herself and looking ahead to a new chapter focused on her well-being and career.
After years of an on-and-off romance, the couple married in a private Islamic ceremony last year, raising hopes that they had finally found lasting stability.
