The final event took place on April 30, 2026, featuring five finalists selected from an initial pool of 1,200 applicants. The challenge is designed to support youth-led innovations that improve productivity and efficiency in the agricultural sector.
The grand prize of Rwf 30 million was awarded to Mutoni Goodluck for her project, Goodness of God Ltd, which produces natural hair care oils designed to promote hair growth and maintenance.
Mutoni explained that she began experimenting with her products in 2019 and officially entered the market in 2024. Her oils are made from natural ingredients including onions, ginger, and garlic.
She noted that sourcing raw materials requires close collaboration with farmers from land preparation to harvest, a process that initially limited her production capacity.
“We were working with about 120 farmers. During dry seasons, production would drop due to limited yields,” she said. “With this support, we plan to organize farmers into groups and train them so we can improve production and ensure consistent supply.”
Isidore Niyigirimpuhwe won second place and received Rwf 20 million for his project, Tech Plus, which focuses on developing egg incubator machines capable of hatching chicks after 21 days.
His innovation includes machines with different capacities, ranging from 120 eggs to large-scale incubators holding up to 40,000 eggs. He said the funding will help increase production capacity.
“We had many clients, but building one machine used to take three to four days. Now we aim to scale up so that we can produce at least one machine per day,” he said.
Muyumbano Happy Axel secured third place with Rwf 15 million for his project, Ampere Vision, which develops agricultural drones used for spraying pesticides on crops.
Each drone can cover up to 18 hectares per day, significantly improving efficiency in pest control.
He said the funding will help expand production to meet growing demand. “We had limited drones, which made it difficult to serve many farmers. Now we can scale up because our main challenge was access to equipment,” he said.
Other finalists included Josiane Mujawayesu, who is developing organic fertilizer from biodegradable waste combined with insects such as worms and flies that she breeds for this purpose.
Another finalist, Abdu Usanase, presented a digital platform that helps farmers calculate the quantity of seeds needed and also supports storage solutions that allow crops such as potatoes to be preserved for up to six months without spoiling.
Government and partners emphasize collaboration
Minister of Agriculture and Animal Resources, Dr. Ndabamenye Telesphore, highlighted that young people are increasingly understanding their role in agriculture through innovation and encouraged collaboration among entrepreneurs.
“There is a youth platform in agriculture that brings together everyone from farmers to exporters. What we always encourage is teamwork and partnerships between complementary projects so that profits can grow,” he said.
Verena Ruzibuka, Country Director for Heifer International Rwanda, noted that even participants who did not win are still supported through other programs.
“Even those who do not win continue to benefit from other initiatives that help them expand their markets. For example, we work with mushroom farmers and connect them to solve shared challenges,” she said.
She added that young entrepreneurs also receive continuous mentorship to help strengthen and scale their businesses.
Mutoni Goodluck received the Rwf 30 million grand prize at the AYuTe Africa ChallengeProducts developed by Mutoni Goodluck, winner of the grand prize at the AYuTe Africa ChallengeVerena Ruzibuka, Country Director for Heifer International Rwanda, noted that even participants who did not win are still supported through other programs. Muyumbano Happy Axel won Rwf 15 million prize at the AYuTe Africa ChallengeMuyumbano Happy Axel explains how his agricultural drone operates.Minister of Agriculture and Animal Resources, Dr. Ndabamenye Telesphore, encouraged youth participation in agriculture innovation.Abdu Usanase presents his digital platform helping farmers determine required seeds based on expected yieldsJosiane Mujawayesu explains her organic fertilizer project combining waste and insects such as flies and wormsIsidore Niyigirimpuhwe, inventor of an egg incubation machine, wins second prize of Rwf 20 millionPromising but emerging innovation project was recognized and supported for further developmentThe third edition of the AYuTe Africa Challenge concluded with awards given to outstanding agricultural innovations
In the first quarter of 2026, the world’s largest technology companies showed that their massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure are beginning to pay off, even as they continue to increase their spending.
Companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Meta Platforms, and Amazon all reported stronger‑than‑expected results, largely driven by growth in their AI‑related cloud services and data center businesses. These results confirmed that their costly commitments to AI computing capacity and infrastructure are generating real revenue and are shaping the future of their businesses.
These major tech firms are collectively projected to spend more than $700 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, a significant increase from earlier expectations of around $600 billion. This year’s total far surpasses the roughly $650 billion level that had been forecast earlier, reflecting how urgently companies are racing to build the computing power needed to support advanced AI tools and services.
Microsoft reported robust growth in its Azure cloud division, with revenue beating analyst expectations. Its AI‑related revenue has grown significantly, prompting the company to raise its full‑year capital expenditure forecast to about $190 billion well above market predictions. Microsoft’s leadership described this period as part of a new “agentic computing era,” where AI tools are central to enterprise services.
Alphabet saw particularly strong performance from Google Cloud, which posted a 63 % year‑over‑year revenue increase the most dramatic growth among the major cloud platforms. CEO Sundar Pichai pointed out that demand for AI computing is outpacing supply, leading to expanded infrastructure commitments. This strong performance helped reinforce Alphabet’s decision to boost its capital spending projections for 2026 and beyond.
Meta Platforms also surpassed revenue expectations, reporting about 33 % growth in its first‑quarter sales. However, its expanding AI infrastructure costs and higher capital expenditure outlook contributed to downward pressure on its stock price. Meta plans to spend more on data centers and components to support future AI tools and services.
Amazon continued to show solid performance in cloud computing through its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, which saw a 28 % growth rate, the fastest in many quarters. AWS has also formed strategic partnerships with AI companies, reinforcing its long‑term AI spending plans without raising its full‑year forecast.
The first quarter of 2026 demonstrated that AI investments are driving revenue growth for Big Tech, even though companies are still increasing their capital expenditures. Demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, suggesting that these technology giants are committed to long‑term expansion in AI and cloud computing as core parts of their business futures.
Big tech’s AI investment soars in Q1 2026, reaching $700 billion in infrastructure spending.
The inclusion of an additional 20 African nations under the zero-tariff treatment policy has demonstrated the nation’s active commitment to expanding high-standard opening up, according to the authorities.
From May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, China will grant zero-tariff treatment, in the form of a preferential tariff rate, to 20 African countries that have established diplomatic ties with China and are not classified as the least developed countries, according to an announcement by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council.
The announcement specified that for products under tariff quotas, only the in-quota tariff rate will be reduced to zero, while the out-of-quota tariff rate will remain unchanged.
During the two-year implementation period, China will continue to promote the negotiation and signing of the agreement of China-Africa Economic Partnership for Shared Development with relevant African countries, it said.
China’s latest move to apply zero-tariff treatment to an additional 20 African nations came after the country had granted zero-tariff treatment on 100 percent of tariff lines since Dec. 1, 2024 for 33 least developed African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations.
The commission added that this move will play an important role in strengthening the economic and trade cooperation bond between China and Africa as well as advancing joint efforts to build an all-weather China-Africa community with a shared future for the new era.
Calling it a “significant measure,” China’s commerce ministry said Tuesday that with the expanded policy taking effect on Friday, China will become the first major economy to provide unilateral, full-coverage zero-tariff treatment to all African countries with diplomatic ties, and to all least developed countries with diplomatic relations.
In a statement, the ministry said that the zero-tariff arrangement is also an innovative and phased step as China and relevant African countries work toward the signing of the China-Africa Economic Partnership for Shared Development agreement.
It said that at a time when unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, China’s move will expand the opening up of its market through zero-tariff treatment, creating development opportunities for African countries. Meanwhile, by negotiating and signing the China-Africa Economic Partnership for Shared Development agreement, China aims to ensure stable benefits for African countries and provide long-term, stable and predictable institutional safeguards for deepening China-Africa economic and trade relations.
As a concrete step demonstrating China’s unwavering commitment to expanding high-standard opening up and its initiative to open wider, the implementation of zero-tariff treatment for the 53 African countries will inject strong impetus into China-Africa trade and investment cooperation as well as Africa’s development, it said.
China’s policy announcement on Tuesday aligns with its broad efforts to build a new system of a higher-standard open economy through mutually-beneficial and open cooperation and expansion of institutional opening up over the coming years.
According to the outline of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), the country will actively take the initiative to open wider and create a transparent, stable and predictable institutional environment. It has also pledged to improve the quality and level of trade and investment cooperation in the years through 2030.
The decision, framed by Emirati officials as a “sovereign, strategic choice,” is believed to better align with the country’s long-term economic vision and production ambitions. However, experts argue that the move may steer the global energy geopolitics toward a more fragmented structure.
Sovereign decision
The UAE formalized its departure through a statement released by the official Emirates News Agency (WAM) on Tuesday, confirming its exit from both OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance.
The withdrawal is set to take effect on May 1, removing the group’s third-largest producer from its quota system. Analysts estimated that OPEC will lose about 15 percent of its capacity.
The decision followed “a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production,” Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei told Reuters, adding that the UAE did not raise the matter with any other country.
The sentiment was echoed by the Foreign Ministry, with its communications director Afra Mahash Al Hameli describing the exit on X as a “sovereign, strategic choice grounded in its long-term economic vision.”
Al Hameli said the move will give the country greater flexibility in using its energy capacity, strengthen national development, and reinforce market confidence.
Diverging paths
The UAE decision, analysts say, reflects a strategic pivot driven by its expanded production capacity and independent export routes, underscoring a broader ambition to become a versatile global energy leader beyond the cartel’s constraints.
Mohamed Nour El-Din Hashim, a Sudanese economist, believes the UAE’s exit is driven by a strategic desire to break free from OPEC production constraints to maximize oil revenues.
“This is true especially after Abu Dhabi has made substantial investments in expanding its oil production capacity in recent years,” Hashim said.
Though regional tensions almost paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE possesses alternative export routes that grant it greater flexibility, he said, boosting its confidence in managing its oil policies “outside OPEC+ collective commitments.”
Aside from oil, the UAE harbors ambition to become a global energy hub in a broader sense, encompassing oil, gas, hydrogen and renewable energy, noted Emirati political analyst Abdulaziz Sultan Al-Mamari.
The country wants to pursue “greater autonomy” to better manage its “production levels” and meet its new role in the global market, Al-Mamari told Xinhua.
On a larger scale, Jumaa Mohammed, a politics professor at Iraq’s Tikrit University, argues that OPEC has increasingly struggled to balance the differing production strategies of its members.
“The strongest evidence: the UAE did not consult Saudi Arabia,” Mohammed said. “In GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) culture, this has never happened before. Major decisions were always preceded by meetings and coordination.”
This, however, does not mean a political rupture within, Al-Mamari said.
“Gulf countries are undergoing a phase of economic and sovereign repositioning characterized by diversified tools and approaches, without affecting the foundations of strategic coordination among them,” he added.
Fragmented energy order
The UAE’s exit not only entails oil price volatility in the short term, regional experts argue, but also signals a shift from OPEC collective discipline toward a more fragmented, market-driven energy order.
Mohammed Belqasim Al Barghouti, a Syrian political economy professor, hold the view that the exit of a country the size of the UAE, an influential producer, could weaken OPEC’s cohesion, but not its overall influence.
“In reality, the organization’s weight today largely depends on a central axis led by Saudi Arabia within OPEC, alongside its partnership with Russia under OPEC+,” Al Barghouti said.
Thus, the impact will be more on the level of discipline within the alliance rather than a collapse of the organization, he said.
Still, any signal of fragmentation within OPEC could create volatility and uncertainty in oil prices, pointed out Oytun Orhan, a senior researcher at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Studies.
“If the UAE moves to increase production outside quota constraints, this could put downward pressure on prices, especially if it coincides with a slowdown in global demand,” the researcher said.
In the long term, Sudanese political analyst Abdul-Rahman Awad said, the decision potentially marks the beginning of a new phase where national calculations trump collective discipline.
The expert warned, “The UAE’s decision could mark the beginning of a new phase in the global energy market, where traditional blocs lose their ability to enforce collective discipline, giving way to more independent policies driven by national calculations.”
Al-Mamari also believes this could accelerate a structural shift away from collective supply management.
“The decision may form part of a broader structural transformation in global energy architecture, shifting from collective control mechanisms toward a more open model, governed by supply and demand dynamics and balances of power among producers,” he said.
Photo taken on Nov. 30, 2023 shows the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria. (Xinhua/He Canling)Photo taken on June 28, 2021 shows the industrial estate of Saudi oil giant Aramco in Dammam, Saudi Arabia. (Xinhua/Hu Guan)This photo taken on Sept. 1, 2024 shows a view of Dubai, the United Arab Emirates. (Xinhua/Sui Xiankai)Photo taken on Sept. 5, 2022 shows the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria. (Photo by Wang Zhou/Xinhua)
The listing of the third tranche follows a highly successful primary issuance which recorded an oversubscription of 126.2 percent, against the initial target of Rwf 23 billion. This reflects continued market confidence in the bank’s financial health and its commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) targets.
“The success of this issuance demonstrates strong investor appetite for sustainable investments in Rwanda. The oversubscription and interest from a wide range of investors from Rwanda and beyond highlight that an ESG-driven approach is both impactful and commercially viable,” said Stella Rusine Nteziryayo, CEO of BRD.
The transaction was supported by the World Bank Group, which provided a credit enhancement to strengthen the bond’s attractiveness. Through this partnership, BRD has effectively mobilized private capital at three times the level of concessional financing provided.
“This transaction demonstrates how well-structured financial instruments can mobilize private capital at scale to support Rwanda’s development priorities. By linking financing to sustainability outcomes, BRD is helping to channel investment into sectors that create jobs, strengthen resilience, and drive inclusive growth. The World Bank Group is pleased to support efforts that deepen local capital markets while delivering tangible development impact,” said Sahr Kpundeh, the World Bank Country Manager for Rwanda.
SLB picks international investor’s interest
In a landmark development for the country’s capital markets, the BRD is also in advanced discussions with an international investor expected to invest in the reopening of the second SLB. This would mark the first time an international investor participates in a domestic issuance on the local bourse.
Proceeds from the bonds will finance projects that drive sustainable development and job creation, including exports and manufacturing, affordable housing, and support for women-led enterprises. By linking financial performance to measurable sustainability targets, BRD ensures that its growth remains aligned with Rwanda’s national development priorities.
About BRD
Established in 1967, the Development Bank of Rwanda (BRD) is the country’s sole national development bank. BRD supports sustainable development by offering affordable, long-term, and tailored finance. Over the past 58 years, BRD has financed projects in key sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, affordable housing, education, green finance, exports, and manufacturing. These investments are critical for achieving Rwanda’s national development agenda, aligned with the Second National Strategy for Transformation (NST2), Vision 2050, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In 2025, Global Credit Rating Co. (GCR) reaffirmed BRD’s “AAA” rating on long-term domestic credit with a stable outlook that reflects BRD’s financial stability, strong support from shareholders and pivotal role in advancing Rwanda’s development.
The listing of the third tranche follows a highly successful primary issuance which recorded an oversubscription of 126.2 percent, against the initial target of Rwf 23 billion.
This was revealed during a press briefing held at the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Rwanda on Tuesday evening, where Ambassador Gao Wenqi outlined China’s economic outlook and the steady strengthening of trade and cooperation with Rwanda.
Amb. Gao said Rwandan coffee has become one of the strongest-performing export products in the Chinese market, reflecting years of gradual expansion and improved trade facilitation.
He noted that China’s imports of Rwandan coffee and related products have grown from $126,000 in 2013 to $1.01 million in 2019, and $4.72 million in 2024, describing this as evidence of consistent upward momentum.
Amb. Gao further confirmed continued rising consumer demand and improved logistics between the two countries.
“In 2025, China imported 869 tonnes of Rwandan coffee,valued at$5.97 million. The zero-tariff policy helps enhance the competitiveness of Rwandan specialty agricultural products in the Chinese market, enriches consumer choices, and brings tangible economic benefits to Rwandan farmers and export enterprises,” he said.
The envoy also highlighted a practical example of the impact of policy changes, saying a shipment of 2.4 metric tons of raw Rwandan coffee beans entered China through Changsha Airport in January 2025 under the zero-tariff scheme, saving the exporter over $1,600 after duties were reduced from 8 percent to zero.
Beyond coffee, Amb. Gao noted that Rwanda’s agricultural exports to China are gradually diversifying, with tea and chili increasingly entering the Chinese market.
He said these products are benefiting from the same zero-tariff framework and improved customs systems, including faster clearance through what he described as green channel arrangements for African agricultural goods.
Amb. Gao explained that the zero-tariff policy is part of China’s broader effort to deepen economic cooperation with Africa.
Rwanda is among the countries already benefiting from the initial phase introduced in December 2024, with a wider rollout planned for May 2026 covering all 53 African countries with diplomatic relations with China.
He said the policy will apply to 100 percent of tariff lines, aimed at strengthening competitiveness and expanding market access for African exports.
Amb. Gao also placed Rwanda’s trade performance within the broader bilateral context, noting that total trade between Rwanda and China reached $849 million in 2025, an increase of 26.9 percent year-on-year, while Rwanda’s exports to China rose by 42 percent. He said this reflects both Rwanda’s growing export capacity and China’s expanding consumer market as a major global importer.
On the wider economic front, he emphasized China’s continued opening-up policy and its role in global trade, noting that platforms such as import expos and trade fairs are designed to increase market access for international partners, including African countries.
He also briefly addressed China’s position on global issues, reaffirming the one-China principle regarding Taiwan and restating China’s call for peaceful coexistence and dialogue in resolving international conflicts, including tensions in the Middle East.
Amb. Gao concluded that Rwanda–China relations are currently at their strongest level following their elevation to a comprehensive strategic partnership. He said the implementation of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is expected to create new opportunities for cooperation in agriculture, trade, infrastructure, and digital development.
Chinese Ambassador to Rwanda Gao Wenqi outlined China’s economic outlook and the steady strengthening of trade and cooperation with Rwanda.
Relations built on mutual respect
Diplomatic relations between Rwanda and China date back to 1971, and over the years, both countries have built a strong partnership anchored in mutual respect and a shared commitment to development.
China has played a visible role in Rwanda’s development journey through several flagship projects, including the construction of Masaka Hospital, where services from Kigali Teaching University Hospital (CHUK) are expected to be relocated with improved capacity.
Cooperation has extended through the deployment of Chinese medical teams, donation of medical equipment, and continuous skills transfer to local health professionals, further reinforcing the practical dimension of the partnership.
Chinese firms have also contributed to major infrastructure works such as modern highways, hydropower plants, and smart education systems.
In agriculture, the introduction of Juncao mushroom technology has directly benefited around 35,000 farmers since 2017.
Since 1983, China has been offering government scholarships to Rwandan students, a cooperation spanning more than four decades. Last year alone, over 400 Rwandan trainees participated in short-term training and workshops in China, while about 110 students received government scholarships, both reaching record levels.
In vocational education, cooperation has also delivered concrete results. The Luban Workshop at IPRC Musanze, jointly established by Rwanda Polytechnic and Jinhua Polytechnic, provides training in E-commerce and Electrical Automation and has so far equipped nearly 10,000 people with practical skills through both online and offline programmes.
Under the China–Africa Vocational Education Cooperation Programme, the two institutions also implement a “2+1” training model, where students study for two years in Rwanda and complete a final year in China before obtaining an advanced diploma. This June, 30 more students from IPRC Musanze will travel to Jinhua, bringing the total number of beneficiaries under the programme to 90.
Lin Hang Minister Counsellor at Chinese Embassy in Kigali also attended the press briefing. Zeng Guangyu is the Chinese Director of the Confucius Institute at the University of Rwanda was also present at the media briefing. The presss briefing took place at the Chinese Embassy in Kigalo on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Gao Zhiqiang, Economic and Commercial Counselor of the Chinese Embassy in Rwanda speaking to the press.
Rwanda’s foreign exchange reserves are expected to rebound to $2.2 billion in 2026, marking a recovery after a projected decline in 2025, according to the latest economic outlook.
The rebound follows a projected decline in reserves from $2.4 billion in 2024, equivalent to 5.3 months of import cover, to about $1.8 billion in 2025, or 3.7 months of imports.
By 2026, reserves are expected to recover to cover approximately 4.3 months of imports, returning above the widely accepted adequacy threshold of four months. In the years beyond, reserves are projected to stabilise around $2.6 billion, supported by sustained inflows of foreign direct investment and concessional financing.
External pressures and recovery path
The short-term deterioration in Rwanda’s external position is tied to a projected rise in the current account deficit to 13.3 percent of GDP in 2026, up from 12.9 percent in 2025. This reflects strong import demand as the country invests in long-term growth projects.
“This increase is driven by a surge in imports of capital goods, linked to key projects like a new airport, and intermediate goods. While strong export performance and supportive policy measures are projected to improve the current account balance in the near term, gradually,” reads the Annual Economic Report for the Fiscal Year 2024/2025 published by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning.
However, the outlook remains optimistic. Strong export performance, particularly in commodities such as coffee and minerals, alongside supportive policy measures, is expected to gradually ease external imbalances.
Recent data shows an improvement in Rwanda’s external position, with the overall balance of payments surplus rising from about $217 million in the Financial Year 2023/24 to $274 million, supported by stronger inflows from exports, investment, and financing.
Gold emerges as a strategic reserve asset
A notable development shaping the forward outlook is Rwanda’s move to diversify its reserves. The National Bank of Rwanda has begun purchasing gold as part of its reserve assets, marking a shift toward strengthening resilience against global financial volatility.
Gold is widely regarded as a stable store of value that does not easily depreciate, especially during periods of currency fluctuations or global uncertainty. By incorporating gold into its reserves, Rwanda is positioning itself to reduce reliance on traditional foreign currency holdings such as the US dollar while enhancing long-term stability.
The central bank is expected to disclose the volume of gold accumulated, a move that could provide further insight into the country’s evolving reserve management strategy.
What it means for the economy
Foreign reserves play a critical role in stabilising the economy. When reserves are sufficient, they enable the country to pay for essential imports, support the national currency, and cushion against external shocks.
If reserves fall too low, the Rwandan franc could come under pressure, making imports more expensive and increasing the cost of living. Conversely, the projected recovery in reserves is expected to help stabilise the exchange rate, contain imported inflation, and support purchasing power.
The central bank also retains the ability to intervene in currency markets using reserves, injecting foreign currency when needed to limit excessive depreciation.
The National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) has begun purchasing gold as an additional way of building and diversifying its reserves.
Analysts warned that even brief interruptions of passage ripple through global markets and that prolonged instability risks evolving into a broader inflation and growth crisis.
Roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes through this narrow corridor linking the Gulf to global markets, making it one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Shocks of this magnitude propagate rapidly through trade, finance and consumption, ultimately affecting household budgets across economies worldwide.
Largest oil supply disruption
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, flows through the Strait of Hormuz have become increasingly volatile.
Data from shipping analytics firms show that prior to the escalation, an average of 45-50 oil tankers transited the strait each day. In the weeks since, that number has dropped by more than half, with fewer than 20 vessels transiting daily, and at times of heightened tension, falling to near zero as shipping temporarily halted.
Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, warned that the market will lose at least 1 billion barrels of crude and refined products due to the crisis.
He noted that sustained attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and repeated closures of the strait have already removed some 12 million barrels per day of production since late February. Analysts expected the global oil market to shift from an expected surplus into a deficit of about 750,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said the war in the Middle East “is creating a major energy crisis, including the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” warning that without a swift resolution, impacts will intensify.
In response, the IEA has coordinated an emergency release of around 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in March, the largest ever, to stabilize markets.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 63 percent in March, surpassing the 46 percent monthly gain recorded in September 1990 during the first Gulf War. Analysts estimate sustained instability could keep Brent crude between 100 and 190 U.S. dollars per barrel, with an average above 130.
Meanwhile, the shock is reshaping global flows. The London-headquartered maritime analytics firm Windward noted that crude shipments are increasingly rerouting toward the Gulf of Mexico, positioning the United States as a key export anchor amid Hormuz disruptions.
U.S. producers could benefit from higher prices, even as import-dependent economies bear the costs, analysts were quoted by Al Jazeera as saying.
“Conflict tax”
If the first layer of impact unfolds in supply, the second is felt in daily life. Reports point to a widening “conflict tax.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) identified energy as the main transmission channel, noting that for fuel-importing economies, rising prices act like a sudden tax on income.
Recent data showed these pressures are increasingly visible at the fuel pump. In the United States, gasoline prices rose by more than 24 percent in March alone, contributing significantly to a surge in retail spending driven largely by higher fuel costs.
In Asia, higher fuel and electricity costs are squeezing manufacturing output and household purchasing power, and in Europe, the crisis revives memories of the 2021-2022 gas shock. British officials warn that elevated food and energy prices could persist for months even after the conflict ends, reflecting delayed inflationary effects.
The real-world impact in other respects is increasingly visible. The war in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in air fares, with the lowest-priced economy tickets costing, on average, 24 percent more than a year ago, according to new research from the consultancy Teneo. The report said airspace restrictions linked to the conflict have forced airlines to reroute numerous flights, increasing fuel consumption and pushing up operating costs.
At the micro level, the consequences are equally tangible. In Ethiopia, a wholesale trader told Xinhua that fuel shortages delayed shipments by several days, causing goods to spoil and resulting in financial losses. In Portugal, consumers reported rising grocery bills eroding incomes, reflecting a broader cost-of-living strain.
“Even if the war is far away, the effect reaches people’s daily lives very quickly,” said Tiago Santos, a Brazilian immigrant working as a salesman in Lisbon, Portugal, capturing how geopolitical shocks in energy markets translate into lived economic pressure far beyond the region of conflict.
Structural adjustments
Beyond immediate shocks, analysts have pointed to longer-term changes. Restoring oil production to pre-conflict levels will likely take several months, depending on the extent of damage to oilfields and how smoothly shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.
Even under a relatively constructive scenario, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) analysts estimate that only 2-3 million barrels per day could return in the first month, with another 2-3.5 million barrels per day gradually coming back over the rest of the second quarter. However, they stressed that operational disruptions, damaged infrastructure and export bottlenecks mean the recovery will not be smooth or linear.
At a systemic level, the crisis is accelerating a reconfiguration of global energy and trade networks. Windward reported that alternative logistics patterns, notably overland transport corridors and destination shifts, are becoming increasingly normalized rather than temporary responses.
“This architecture is unlikely to unwind quickly, even if the ceasefire holds,” the report noted, adding that war-risk insurance, backlog pressure, congestion risk and unresolved transit governance mean that the current system has already moved from improvisation into operational normalization.
More broadly, the crisis highlights the vulnerability of maritime chokepoints and is prompting countries to diversify supply sources, expand strategic reserves and rebalance efficiency with resilience in global trade systems.
At the same time, the shock is reshaping the trajectory of the energy transition. Policymakers across regions have called for faster deployment of clean energy to reduce exposure to similar shocks.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has recently urged a rapid, large-scale transition toward renewables. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for speeding up “the integration of low-carbon, home-grown energy” to strengthen energy security.
“This fossil fuel crisis will happen again and again,” said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell. “Sunlight does not depend on narrow and vulnerable shipping straits. Wind blows without massive taxpayer-funded naval escorts.”
Analysts warned that even brief interruptions of passage ripple through global markets and that prolonged instability risks evolving into a broader inflation and growth crisis.
The report, published on Tuesday, shows a significant increase from 612 projects recorded in 2024, with the new investments expected to generate more than 38,000 jobs. Real estate, manufacturing and mining accounted for the largest share of the registered investments, underlining continued investor confidence in Rwanda’s economic outlook.
Foreign private capital performance also remained strong. According to the 2025 Foreign Private Capital survey, Foreign Direct Investment inflows rose to $872.9 million (Rwf 1.27 trillion) in 2024, marking a 21.8 percent increase from $716.5 million (Rwf 1.04 trillion) recorded in 2023.
RDB said the combined performance demonstrates sustained confidence in Rwanda’s policy environment and its ability to support investors beyond promotion through implementation and service delivery.
Tourism remained one of the country’s strongest-performing sectors, with revenues reaching $685 million (Rwf 997.9 billion) in 2025, up from $647 million (Rwf 942.6 billion) in 2024, representing a 6 percent year-on-year increase.
Visitor arrivals also rose by 9 percent to 1.49 million, supported by Rwanda’s flagship gorilla trekking experiences and expanded tourism offerings across the country’s national parks.
The Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions (MICE) segment generated $94.7 million (Rwf 137.9 billion), up from $84.8 million (Rwf 123.5 billion) in 2024, reflecting an 11 percent increase. The growth was driven by 165 international and regional events hosted in Rwanda during the year.
Among the major events were the UCI Road World Championships held in September, the first time the global cycling championship was hosted in Africa, alongside Move Afrika Kigali featuring John Legend, the Mobile World Congress, and Season 5 of the Basketball Africa League.
RDB said these events played a major role in boosting visitor arrivals, raising Rwanda’s international profile, and strengthening the country’s MICE ecosystem.
Rwanda’s export sector also remained resilient, with total export receipts reaching $3.6 billion, supported by steady performance in mining, agriculture and horticulture. Services exports increased by 2.7 percent year-on-year, while air cargo volumes rose by 2.4 percent to 6,257 tonnes from 6,113 tonnes in 2024.
The country also continued to leverage global sports partnerships under the Visit Rwanda campaign to strengthen international visibility and attract high-value tourism and investment.
In 2025, Rwanda renewed its partnership with Paris Saint-Germain until 2028 and signed a new three-year deal with Atlético de Madrid running through 2028.
It also expanded long-term sponsorship agreements with the Los Angeles Clippers and the Los Angeles Rams, both extending through 2030.
These partnerships are expected to increase Rwanda’s global exposure, attract more high-value visitors and investors, and support further growth in tourism and the MICE segment.
The report also highlighted Rwanda’s strong performance in global rankings, including the World Bank B-READY Report, where the country achieved Africa’s highest score on regulatory framework performance.
Rwanda also maintained its position as one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s top performers in the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index.
To improve the business environment, RDB said it continued expanding the One Stop Centre and digitising services through a unified platform expected to provide more efficient and transparent access to over 400 services delivered by more than 20 institutions.
A real-time performance monitoring system was also introduced to improve service delivery in areas such as business registration and investment facilitation.
Additionally, Rwanda established the National Lottery and Gambling Commission under RDB’s mandate to regulate the gambling sector and strengthen governance, compliance and oversight.
Commenting on the results, RDB Chief Executive Officer Jean-Guy Afrika said the performance reflects continued progress in supporting Rwanda’s economic fundamentals.
“The 2025 performance reflects continued progress in supporting Rwanda’s economic fundamentals and delivering on our priorities across investment, exports, tourism and service delivery. We remain focused on building a predictable and competitive environment that enables private sector growth and long-term development,” he said.
RDB said it will continue implementing the Second National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) and its 2025–2030 strategy, with a focus on expanding investment, strengthening exports, promoting high-value tourism and advancing innovation.
Rwanda registered $2.62 billion (approximately Rwf 3.8 trillion) in investments across 799 projects in 2025, reflecting stronger economic momentum driven by growth in investment, tourism, exports and business reforms, according to the latest annual report released by the Rwanda Development Board (RDB).
The fund, named the Rwanda SME Growth Fund, is a joint initiative between the Rwanda Social Security Board (RSSB) and Enko Capital. It was officially unveiled in Kigali on April 27, 2026, following the signing of a partnership agreement between the two institutions.
Under this arrangement, RSSB will provide the capital, while Enko Capital will be responsible for evaluating investment proposals and managing the fund’s portfolio.
The fund begins with an initial capital of $30 million (over Rwf 43 billion), with plans to expand to $100 million in the coming years. In addition to this investment, RSSB has set aside an extra Rwf 3 billion to support operational activities, including deploying skilled professionals to assist companies receiving funding.
This additional support is intended to help businesses address capacity gaps—for instance, by enabling them to recruit essential staff needed during expansion phases.
Unlike traditional financing mechanisms, the Rwanda SME Growth Fund will not offer grants or loans. Instead, it will take equity stakes in eligible businesses. Companies with viable and scalable projects will receive capital in exchange for a shareholding structure, where part of the ownership is transferred to the fund for a defined period of between five and ten years.
The Director General of RSSB, Rugemanshuro Regis, said the fund is designed to accelerate the growth of private SMEs. He noted that RSSB is also seeking additional partners to help raise the fund’s total value to $100 million.
He explained that many local industries operate below capacity, often between 40% and 50%, despite producing goods in high demand. He attributed this to the high cost and limited accessibility of bank loans, which the fund aims to address.
According to him, many entrepreneurs lack sufficient collateral to meet bank requirements, making it difficult to secure financing. As a result, businesses remain under-capitalized, limiting their production capacity and contributing to increased imports.
Businesses seeking funding will be required to submit detailed information about their operations and investment needs to Enko Capital.
Each company will be eligible to receive between $500,000 and $5 million from the fund.
RSSB indicated that after a period of five to ten years, the fund will exit its investment by selling its shares either back to the company or to other investors, depending on the growth achieved.
Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Enko Capital, Cyrille Nkontichou, emphasized that access to affordable capital remains a major challenge for SMEs, particularly due to high borrowing costs and strict lending conditions.
He noted that many SMEs lack collateral and require longer repayment periods, which often do not align with the terms offered by financial institutions. In this context, the Rwanda SME Growth Fund presents a more flexible and sustainable financing solution.
Nkontichou added that Enko Capital already operates in several African countries, managing assets worth approximately $1.7 billion. He described the firm’s expansion into Rwanda as a strategic opportunity, not only to implement this fund but also to tap into the country’s growing investment landscape.
According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, SMEs account for 98% of all businesses in Rwanda and employ around 2.5 million people, highlighting their critical role in the country’s economy.
The fund was officially unveiled in Kigali on April 27, 2026, following the signing of a partnership agreement between the two institutions. The fund was unveiled in Kigali through a partnership between RSSB and Enko Capital.The Director General of RSSB, Rugemanshuro Regis, said the fund is designed to accelerate the growth of private SMEs.Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Enko Capital, Cyrille Nkontichou, emphasized that access to affordable capital remains a major challenge for SMEs, particularly due to high borrowing costs and strict lending conditions.
