{The above debate seems to draw confusion not critique per se from characters who have excluded themselves from anything Rwanda either due their heinous crimes to Rwandans and our country, or by association to these characters or even by intentional omission not to discern why Rwandese have chosen to stay course by requesting President Paul Kagame to sustain our social economic transformation at high gear right now, and security model that has ensured safety of persons and their properties for a while. }
These characters chose to ignore the critical end state of our debate which is, either sustenance of what we have achieved to date, or existential threats that would crystallize otherwise.
{{Existential Threat.}}
As pointed out in earlier article, our retreat made bare existential threats posed by not sustaining our stability and exemplary leadership we were fortunate to have, and without which we would be another Somalia, Liberia, Iraq, Libya, South Sudan. The list is endless. What is unique with Rwanda unlike the aforementioned countries, is that; we are both post conflict and a post genocide countries (an extreme terrible state a country can be in) whereas the former happen to be post conflict countries only.
We are a country in transition from both and at a takeoff stage of our development in the modest sense of the term. In transition stage you don’t gamble or try/test the management of the country if you are lucky to have exemplary one in place. Countries which have tried such model have regressed so much that, they only wish they did not. But too late. And so the existential threats posed by such risks as possibility of recurrence of genocide given that, it is official FDLR are protected by strong interest groups which either were party to genocide or sympathetic to these. The risk of reversal of our reconciliation model is real, and so is that of our social economic transformation that are both work in progress. The risks of reversal of our unprecedented peace and security model that addresses both internal and external threats is equally real.
The risk that huge regional as well as local projects will stall such as northern collidor rail to Kigali and pipeline, as well as Bugesera airport projects among others. There is also a huge risk that, our untold story will certainly be told differently with the consequence that, genocide and its impact to our social fabric will be diluted or even reversed by the forementioned powerful interest groups. Characters making noise in western capitals are not party to or exposed to these threats as ‘they have sanctuaries’ in these capital with no threats whatsoever.
What we are to day as a country has been shaped by, and is handiwork of President Pual Kagame, so much so that any change in his leadership will certainly pose existential threat to Rwanda and Rwandans. His moral authority, charismatic readership, hard work and discipline imposed on himself and through this to the entire civil service has ensured high standard of performance that is trusted both at home and abroad has earned Rwanda a unique place/status that never was. As Mr Tee Ngugi well put it in his article in East African 4th July, 15, “to build a nationhood… President Kagame had to inculcate a sense of shared values, and to inspire all to work towards a clear vision, to practice inclusive as opposed to exclusive politics, to give all citizens access to resources and opportunities …Rwanda has taught us important lessons: it is possible to reinvent yourself, and a visionary leadership is the difference between life and death…we ignore these lessons at our peril”.
These are observations of an informed commentator on regional politics that reminds us that, these lessons are for us Rwandans as they are for the region. We cannot discount such at the alter of convenience of the so called term limits as if these are an end in themselves.
{{Economic Vs Political Systems in place .}}
For some time now, Africa has had many lessons/lectures on development both political and economic, from all sorts of know it all westerners so much so that one wonders whether Africans are bad students or they have had bad teachers. I bet on the latter. Lectures given to Africa, has not been in the interest of Africa. Problem is, these lectures are coated with western self interest and are not value neutral and no one should take the view that, the west will ever develop Africa. It is not in their interests, and has never been. Africa will have to develop itself. And although this may sound radical. I personally have no apologies for reality on the ground vindicates this thesis. A lot of research has been done on the failure of Africa to develop as fast as Asian Tigers did despite having similar backgrounds. All/most research has zeroed on leadership deficit in Africa, as the main variable that explains the difference in development episodes of the two regions. However nearly all Asian tigers had consistency in one variable; good leaders void of term limits. This was true in Singapore as it was in Malaysia etc. And where term limits were in place, they were simply hypothetical. Good leaders delivered until these economies grew to sustainable levels. Which is why term limits were not an end to these countries, as they should not be to any other country lucky to have an exemplary leader least Rwanda with its heinous past and context no one can hold constant.
The history of development of western Europe bore similarities to those of Asian Tigers. European countries were ruled by Kings/Queens who ruled for life. A good King/Queen left a developmental mark on his or her own country. And because of proximity of these countries growth, and development were literally contagious. Up to the post industrial revolution and later years of development of Europe this governance paradigm remained constant. It was not until these countries develop a middle class that there was a need for paradigm shift in the governance model which had to answer their circumstances. And so the powers of Kings/queens were to be transferred to Prime Ministers and Presidents as the case dictated. The theory here is that, economic development and political development are highly correlated that, it is literally impossible possible to skip the stages of one, leaving the other behind/constant. It does work. It hasn’t worked anywhere else, it will never work in Africa, much less in Rwanda. So those agitating for fast-tracking one, must also fast tract the other. The structure of our economies will not allow this, as it could not allow it for Europe anyway. And so as research has concluded, it is not possible to talk of democratic development until a country has attained middle income and with a per capita income of about $2500. The rest is academic, and lectures of no substance. This is the hard truth. The rest are experiments that take us no where except to sustain and entrench the interests of those giving lectures without substance.
This was true for western Europe as it was for other regions of the world including Asian Tigers that latched into developed mode just recently. It is true for Africa. The issue democratic narrative espoused by western simplisists will have to be revised by these, or by us Africans to address the realities of our developmental phase. And as such, if we Rwandans fit into the historical development paradigm, a path that have been taken by all developed countries, we are justified. The western descendants should read their history, before they lecture Africa lessons it cannot learn because it happens to operate in similar environment as that of their grand-grandfathers. Some of this environment was shaped by them to serve their interests. We only have to reverse it and do what is in our best interest. We don’t owe it to anybody. For us Rwandans, it is our destiny, fate, and future, amidst existential threats we stare in its face.
{ {{To be continued…}} }
Professor Nshuti Manasseh.
Economist and Financial Expert.
Email: nshutim@gmail.com.
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