Rwanda and the DRC have been at odds since 1994, with a few short periods of amity in between. The trend is, once every Congolese president gets into power, they turn against Rwanda to gain popularity back at home. Then comes the conflict.
Apart from Tshisekedi, there is nothing new about this current conflict Rwanda and the DRC are navigating. Since the conflict between DRC and Rwanda is not new, the way in which they are handling it this time around, shows what these two governments currently prioritize and their foreign policy.
DRC’s strategy is to blame
If you are not aware, President Tshisekedi and his government throw accusations in Rwanda every chance they get. Be it in the local news, regional meetings, or international conferences.
For instance, on 25 February 2023, during his speech, President Tshisekedi who was the outgoing chair of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECAAS), a community in which both Rwanda and the DRC are members, proposed sanctions on Rwanda in front of many regional leaders who attended the session.
Two days after, on 27th February 2023, he again talked about “Rwanda’s aggression” at the UN Human Rights Council session in Geneva. Added to that, during each of the incessant press briefs in the DRC, the speaker always finds a way to talk about Rwanda connecting it to M23 and blaming Rwanda for everything that is going wrong in the DRC.
Even during the press brief that was about infrastructure on 14th February 2023, specifically on the reparation of roads in DRC, the Congolese minister of infrastructure talked about Rwanda. Which makes you wonder, what does Rwanda have to do with DRC roads? It is that frequent.
This political behavior’s aim is to slowly program the Congolese people or anyone else who will allow that information in, into accepting their narratives about the cause of the insecurity in Eastern DRC. This strategy could be effective if it was well studied and planned, but when you analyze DRC leaders’ speeches, you find too many contradictions and irregularities that make anyone doubt the reliability of the information they are propagating.
Tshisekedi’s love for power
President Tshisekedi’s love for power has made him cancel some bilateral agreements between the DRC and Rwanda that would have benefited the whole region.
His way of handling his personal problem, such as reaching his political aspirations, tells you everything you need to know about him as a leader. A leader who puts his personal needs before the needs of many and a leader who is so lazy that instead of delivering to his people, he will look for a shortcut, no matter how costly it is.
Rwanda’s strategy is to listen, observe and correct
Rwanda, on the other hand, took a completely different approach. You would not even know that Rwanda was dealing with a serious political issue by looking at the speeches of Rwandan leaders or even their social media activities.
For instance, President Paul Kagame mainly talks about the DRC only to reiterate that M23 is not getting help from Rwanda. Additionally, apart from the minister of foreign affairs, the government’s spokesperson, and her deputy, no other official discusses the DRC anywhere randomly.
This could be misinterpreted as the inability to properly navigate political crises. However, that is a wrong take. It could be argued that Rwanda is playing a long game, letting the DRC talk, make accusations, make incessant requests, and so on, which eventually will make them a laughingstock.
People who are really interested in this conflict have started noticing many irregularities and contradictions in DRC leaders’ statements.
In fact, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has reminded the DRC government that blaming international actors without taking any responsibility for their failures is not going to fix anything.
So, why have President Tshisekedi of DRC and President Kagame chosen two completely different approaches to deal with a political crisis that their countries are currently navigating? And what do their respective choices reveal about these two countries?
What are the reasons behind these choices?
A few Rwandan and Congolese journalists and political analysts have concluded that President Tshisekedi is using Rwanda to gain popularity for his next presidential campaign. After grasping that the Congolese populace has noticed his incompetence and his inability to deliver during his first term, he has resolved to blaming Rwanda for literally every one of his failures, which is a strategy that past DRC politicians have used.
The most famous of them is Kabila the father who did a 180 on Rwanda, just like Tshisekedi did. Thus, it is a tried and tested formula that he can just copy and paste.
Rwanda’s approach on the other hand comes from experience. With every new DRC president, Rwanda has learned lessons. The most important of them: being patient and keeping their calm.
Where are Rwanda and DRC headed?
There are two possible outcomes, either after the elections, president Tshisekedi will come around, have a dialogue with Rwanda, and accept to start implementing the Luanda and Nairobi processes, which will in turn, lead to peace in the region. This will present him as a visionary leader who has chosen peace when that choice was not the easiest. It will also give him some increased popularity at home, in the region, and abroad. This is the best scenario for him.
The other possibility is, the international and regional communities will keep ignoring his pleas, which will highlight his political and strategic impotence even at home. His political opponents will use this against him and probably ruin his future political career prospects. This will make him go down in history as another regional politician who tried using Rwanda and killed his career in the process instead.
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