Category: Politics

{Opposition leaders on Wednesday unveiled the much-touted National Super Alliance (Nasa) and vowed to stick together with the aim of removing Jubilee from power in the August 8 General Election.}

The four – ODM’s Raila Odinga, Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka, Ford-Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula and ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi – signed a memorandum to seal the unity pact at a ceremony in Nairobi witnessed by more than 5,000 aspirants gathered in the Bomas of Kenya ballroom. The pact was also signed by Kanu Secretary-General Nick Salat.

The meeting had initially been called by the Opposition chiefs to give the way forward on the controversial Election Laws (Amendment) Act, which was passed by the National Assembly and Senate last week and assented to by President Kenyatta on Monday. However, it was turned into a forum to cement the Opposition unity, with the leaders promising to invite more leaders.

Mr Mudavadi has been spearheading the push for the opposition leaders to unite under Nasa since late last year.

The leaders also used the meeting to rally their supporters to register in large numbers when the final voter registration drive commences on Monday. They also said they would suspend the planned street protests to mobilise their supporters into registering in large numbers.

{{‘COMMON DREAM’}}

“We are also here to emphasise that we are one Opposition team, with the common dream of liberating Kenyans from the yoke of Jubilee,” said Mr Odinga, while reading a statement that had been agreed on by all the Opposition chiefs.

“We are here to agree to stop Jubilee from ruining our country beyond August 2017. Defeating Jubilee in August is not about the Opposition taking power. It is a national duty and a civic responsibility to save Kenya”.

He cited joblessness among educated youth, high borrowing by the government and corruption as among the ills perpetuated by the Jubilee administration.

“We are here to make all of us understand that the only enemy we have and our country has, is Jubilee. Divided we shall fall and the country will continue to suffer. Only our unity shall salvage what remains of our country. We are here because we understand that simple and painful reality,” he said.

According to him, the meeting had not been convened to call for mass action to protest the recently-passed election law.

“That remains on our radar but not in the next 30 days,” he said.

The speeches were preceded by presentations by renowned economist David Ndii, a law lecturer, Prof Elisha Ongoya, and former Constitution of Kenya Review Commission commissioner Zein Abubakar, who all urged Opposition supporters to work together.

{{A TEAM}}

The meeting also saw Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula lead other leaders from western Kenya in declaring that they would work as a team with a view to locking Jubilee out of the vote-rich region. In the declaration, led by Senator George Khaniri, the leaders said urged voters in the region to “put all their eggs in one basket”.

Just before he read the prepared statement, Mr Odinga announced that leaders from western Kenya wanted to make a declaration before the gathering. He then invited Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula to lead their colleagues in declaring that they would work as a team. They were joined by MPs Yusuf Chanzu (Vihiga), and Paul Otuoma (Funyula), Senators George Khaniri (Vihiga), and Boni Khalwale (Kakamega) and former Nairobi Mayor George Aladwa.

From the very outset, it was evident that the gathering expected nothing short of a united opposition. Speaker after speaker implored the leaders to remain united.

Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho set the ball rolling, when he told the leader that they had no choice but to unite and remove Jubilee from power.

Turning to face the five on the dais, Mr Joho said to applause; “My dear brothers, you have no choice but to hold together”.

{{SENT PACKING}}

He said he was ready to die if that would ensure Jubilee was sent packing.

Dr Khalwale, too, stressed the need for the Opposition to remain united, saying that President Uhuru Kenyatta had hoped that he would lure Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula so as to split the western vote.

“Uhuru thought he would get my brother Wetang’ula and my brother Musalia but he has failed. Are they not with us here?” he posed.

Mr Mudavadi, who was the first of the four chiefs to address the gathering, urged his colleagues to unite behind Nasa.

“I have been there before. It is a long and narrow road but with unity, it will be wide and short,” he said to a thunderous applause.

Mr Musyoka electrified the crowd when he declared that he was ready to sacrifice his presidential ambition to ensure that the Opposition captures power.

“I have sacrificed before and I’m ready to sacrifice again. I also expect similar sacrifice from my brothers here,” he said. However, he also added that he expected similar selflessness from the other leaders.

He warned against any of the opposition chiefs betraying their colleagues and called for transparency in picking the movement’s presidential candidate.

Mr Wetang’ula also dwelt on the need for leaders to remain united.

“Each one of us here (referring to the opposition chiefs) is a first among equals. I will be happy if my brother Steve is named the candidate. I will also be happy if my brother Musalia is named the candidate or my brother Raila is named,” he said.

{{IN MILLIONS}}

Mr Odinga, who was the last to speak, urged Opposition supporters to register as voters in their millions.

“We will deal with election laws – we promise you that – but you must all go out, in every town, village, home, church, school, bus stop every single day and not rest until everybody you meet is a registered voter to send a mass message to Jubilee that they must go home! It has to be done. It has been done elsewhere. It will be done here with your help,” he said.

“I wish to urge all Opposition supporters to discard the fears that Jubilee will steal the August elections. Yes, Jubilee will try to steal the elections. But we shall not allow it. We shall make it impossible for anyone to steal the elections. But we are also sending word to Jubilee again that the cost of stealing this election will be regrettable. Therefore, don’t try it.”

He assured the aspirants that the nominations across all the opposition parties would be free and fair.

“The commitment runs across the Opposition… We are against fraud in the General Election. We will not allow fraud in our nominations,” he said, and promised that those who lose would be given jobs in government if the alliance wins the elections.

{Dr Besigye said every election organized by President Museveni is an opportunity to FDC because it enables them carry out their operations at the ground level.}

Former presidential candidate Dr Kizza Besigye has asked all Ugandans to participate in the forthcoming LC1 elections “despite being organized in an improper way of lining behind candidates.”

While addressing a rally at Sanga Secondary School playground in Sanga Sub county Nyabushozi in Kiruhura District on Wednesday, Dr Besigye said every election organized by President Museveni is an opportunity to FDC because it enables them carry out their operations at the ground level.

“Every election they bring is a blessing to us. So engage yourselves in the elections and make sure that you stand behind FDC candidates and we shame them,” said Dr Besigye.

He said there are some people in Kiruhura who threaten others for associating with FDC which he said is bad politics. He said in 1980 elections they shunned the person they are glorifying.

“You see some people in Kiruhura District threatening others not to support a candidate of their choice yet in 1980 they refused to vote Museveni. It is a shame that in Kiruhura District where the President comes from, people are migrating because of drought and you start singing NRM when you are not among the people who share on the money they steal,” said Dr Besigye.

The reason Rwenzururu kingdom palace was attacked by the UPDF, he said, is because people in Kasese voted for FDC.

“What killed the people of Kasese is because they voted for me and all six MPs from Kasese are FDC, chairman LC5 is FDC and all councilors are FDC members.

People from Kasese stood firm for our votes until when they agreed to declare that Kasese was ours which has since increased tension in the area,” explained Dr Besigye.

He reiterated at the rally that he won the February 2016 election with 52 per cent and that is recognized by outside countries. He said it is the reason he was invited at the swearing in of Ghana’s new President Mr Nana Akufo-Addo last Saturday.

“That is why I was invited to attend the swearing in ceremony of Ghana’s new President on Saturday where I am coming from to attend court in Kabale (on Thursday) which is just wastage of my time. So what I want from you is to unite and stand firm to support your (people’s) government. The reason why am called to see how other countries presidents are swearing in is because they know that I’m the President,’’ Dr Besigye said.

{The second phase of political talks about how to implement a New Year’s Eve deal on the transfer of power has begun in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. If applied, the agreement will pave the way for the departure of President Joseph Kabila and elections this year.}

The DRC’s political deal was signed by Kabila’s ruling alliance and the Rassemblement, the largest opposition coalition.

Delayed elections, originally scheduled for November, and Kabila’s decision not to leave office when his second term expired on December 19 launched the DRC into uncharted and volatile waters. There were widespread fears that Kabila wanted to change the constitution to permit him to serve a third term.

But the new agreement stipulates its signatories will not attempt to alter the constitution. It also states elections to find Kabila’s successor should be held in late 2017 and provides for the establishment of a government of national unity headed by a prime minister from the Rassemblement.

Analyst Stephanie Wolters of the Institute for Security Studies told VOA that “the deal on paper is a good deal, and if we could get this political accord implemented and get all the people who have not signed it yet to sign it, then it is an extremely good road map. It is an actual resolution of the crisis that we had all last year.”

The Catholic bishops of the National Episcopal Conference of the Congo, known as CENCO, are mediating the talks, and their vice president, Bishop Fridolin Ambongo, has said this second phase will be “the most difficult part.”

An agreement is needed on the composition of the new government, the electoral commission, and the committee tasked with monitoring implementation of the accord.

Possible obstacles

Wolters said several obstacles stand in the way of the smooth implementation of the agreement. One is the logistical challenge of holding presidential, parliamentary and provincial elections in this huge, mostly undeveloped country by the end of this year.

Another is Prime Minister Samy Badibanga, who was appointed in November after a previous set of negotiations boycotted by the Rassemblement. Badibanga and some of his ministers have refused to recognize the new agreement.

“Of course, Badibanga is key to the implementation of this whole thing, because the accord calls for the formation of a new government and the appointment of a new prime minister,” Wolters said. “And if Badibanga stands in the way, that is going to be a problem.”

Even though Kabila’s ruling alliance has signed the deal, some senior members have criticized the accord for its lack of inclusivity, and they have suggested the new government cannot be put in place until March, when parliament reopens.

There are many questions, Wolters said, “about whether or not this was a calculated move by the ruling alliance to essentially sign something knowing full well that they could still scupper it in a number of ways, and also knowing full well, it has to be said, that the opposition itself may still be an obstacle, because it can not agree on exactly who is going to take what post in the various different new structures.”

Monseigneur Marcel Utembi, CENCO’s president, said Wednesday that he wanted to conclude this phase of negotiations within four days.

{Lawmakers across the political divide roundly condemned interference in the independence of Parliament.}

Speaker Rebecca Kadaga yesterday christened Deputy Chief Justice Steven Kavuma’s order, stopping Parliament or any individual from inquiring into the Shs6b oil cash bonanza as “stupid” and with unflinching fists declared the House sittings suspended indefinitely.

In a stormy afternoon session, Ms Kadaga pulled no punches as incensed lawmakers across the political divide roundly condemned interference in the independence of Parliament.

Ms Kadaga adjourned the House for an indefinite period and directed Attorney General, through State Minister for Justice, Mwesigwa Rukutana to immediately appeal Justice Kavuma’s “stupid” court order.

Addressing herself to the consequence of Justice Kavuma’s court order, Mr Kadaga said: “This is the first time that a court is operating in anticipation of an issue that has not even come to the House. This is an attempt to gag this House. This is an attempt to stop this House from doing its work.”

“I cannot accept a decision where court shall determine how we sit in this House. How we shall write the Order. Court is interfering in the oversight powers of the House. It is going to the core of democracy in this country. This is unacceptable. I want to direct the Attorney General to go to court and ensure that this stupid order is vacated. I want the rights of MPs fully reinstated. I adjourn the House and all Committees sine die.”

The fall-out from the presidential golden handshake, a reward to 42 top government officials continues to rumble on, the House chamber turned into a theatre of verbal wrangling as Mr Rukutuna wriggled to defend the court order amid torrid attacks from MPs.

The deputy AG put up a lone spirited defence of the “stupid” court order, barring debate on the matter.

In her ruling, Ms Kadaga put the government on notice that Parliament will be adjourned sine die (with no resumption date) until the court order is quashed on grounds that no parliamentary work can be conducted with the court order in place.

She said there will be no debate on critical business such as the 2017/18 Budget, the planned capitalisation of Uganda Development Bank (UDB) and providing money to the Petroleum Fund.

As soon as Mbarara Municipality MP Michael Tusiime had started reading his motion seeking to investigate the circumstances under which the Shs6b was shared out amongst 42 officials without the knowledge of the Auditor General, Mr Rukutuna shot up on a procedural issue and argued that there was a court order barring any debate on the matter.

Although Mr Rukutana claims the disputed court order was copied to Ms Kadaga, the Kamuli woman representative said she had not seen the purported document.

She then read out Section 4 of the Parliament (Powers and Privileges) Act, arguing that the court order was served when Parliament was in session, making it null and void.

Ms Kadaga also questioned the authenticity of the court order, asking Mr Rukutuna whether he “believes it’s a genuine order.”

Section 4 of the Section 4 of the Parliament (Powers and Privileges) Act indicates that no process issued by any court in Uganda in the exercise of its civil jurisdiction shall be served or executed within the precincts of Parliament while Parliament is sitting or through the Speaker, the clerk or any officer of Parliament.

But Mr Rukutuna shot back, this time tabling a copy of the court order received by the Clerk to Parliament.

It was a stormy sitting that pitted Mr Rukutuna against the Speaker and the House.

{More than 4,000 opposition leaders will on Wednesday make what they regard as the biggest declaration of political unity in their bid to defeat President Uhuru Kenyatta in the August General Election.}

Opposition political outfits will bring together all their elected leaders and aspirants under the National Super Alliance (Nasa) during a meeting that will be their first manifestation of a united front.

The leaders have said that the alliance will be akin to the 2002 National Rainbow Alliance (Narc) that swept President Daniel arap Moi out of power.

“The Bomas meeting will be the greatest symbol of a united opposition with a strong presidential candidate. There will be an advancement of talks to add other players to the opposition fold,” said Ford Kenya deputy party leader Boni Khalwale.

Dr Khalwale, who is also the Kakamega Senator, added: “We are going to find a solution to a headstrong Jubilee government that is forcing down the throats of Kenyans all manner of bad laws”.

The alliance has been fronted by Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and supported by Cord’s Raila Odinga.

Those expected at Wednesday’s meeting are leaders from Mr Odinga’s ODM, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Party, Mr Moses Wetang’ula’s Ford-K, Mr Mudavadi’s ANC, and Mr Gideon Moi’s Kanu.

{{UHURU KENYATTA}}

The meeting will also take a stand on the controversial laws signed into law by President Uhuru Kenyatta on Monday evening and that allow the electoral commission to turn to a “complementary mechanism” in case the electronic mode of identifying voters and transmitting results fails.

“This meeting is key for the opposition unity to brainstorm and develop strategies that will guarantee a credible election,” said Mr Mudavadi at his party headquarters in Lavington, Nairobi.

He added: “We must work together as the Opposition. We should not come together for constitutional problems only. We genuinely believe some issues have not been managed well”.

On Monday, Cord management committee co-chairmen James Orengo and Eseli Simiyu, as well as ANC’s John Sakwa Bunyasi, inspected the Bomas of Kenya venue and promised what they said was a coalition that would be impossible to defeat in 2017.

“For about six months, we have been speaking about opposition unity. On Wednesday, we are going to take a stand once and for all with a view to beating President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017,” said Mr Orengo, who is also the Siaya Senator.

On Tuesday, Dr Simiyu said Jubilee’s goose was already cooked and they should start packing.

‘NO CHANCE’

“Once the Opposition is united, Jubilee has no chance at all. That is why some people are working to ensure that opposition unity does not happen,” Dr Simiyu said in an opinion piece.

He added: “But Kenya is ready for change. It has been for a long time now. We are, therefore, getting together to work towards a message that will resonate with majority of Kenyans”.

Kanu leaders, who had been seen to have developed cold feet towards the alliance, on Tuesday said they were in the talks fully and will be represented at the Bomas meeting.

“We are going to be there. We are fully committed to talks on opposition unity and to take a stand on the bad electoral laws signed by President Kenyatta,” party secretary-general Nick Salat told the Nation.

Mr Mudavadi denied that the opposition team from western Kenya was divided following his appointment by trade unionist Francis Atwoli as the region’s political spokesman, opposed by Mr Wetang’ula and Dr Khalwale.

“It’s not a meeting of tribes. We are not going there as Luhyas, but as people who will be representing a political party,” said Mr Mudavadi.

But National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale dismissed the opposition’s renewed vigour, saying it would die down soon. “There is no one new in that Nasa line-up. Who have they added that we did not defeat in 2013? As Jubilee, we are ready and our team is intact and we will defeat any form of opposition unity that comes,” he said in an earlier interview.

{On January 1, the Congolese population awoke to the surprising news that political actors in the country had signed a comprehensive political accord that sets elections for 2017 and stipulates explicitly that Congolese President Joseph Kabila cannot stand for another term as president. It is a significant accord, but the simple fact of its signing does not mean the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is out of the woods yet.}

The deal, which was brokered by the leadership of the Catholic Church in the DRC (Conference episcopale du Congo or CENCO), was signed by the president’s ruling political alliance and numerous opposition groupings. The opposition had boycotted the National Dialogue talks mediated by the African Union in 2016 and had refused to sign the October 18 political agreement.

The main sticking points in the October 18 agreement were the absence of explicit language about Kabila’s candidacy in the next elections – the 2005 constitution allows only two presidential terms, and the fact that elections were due to be held in 2018 – a full two years after the 2016 deadline. Although the October accord was endorsed by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), it was widely criticised for failing to address key issues and create sufficient consensus to stabilise the volatile political situation.

In the aftermath of its signing, international and regional actors worked frantically behind the scenes to get the government and opposition to continue talks under the mediation of the church – the only Congolese player with the historical credibility and neutrality to lead such an important initiative.

These diplomatic efforts were accompanied by the harsher reality of sanctions on key players in the Kabila government and the Congolese security sector in particular. Over the last year, the United States has imposed asset and travel bans on four senior officials, while the European Union imposed sanctions on seven officials in December, several of them for their role in violent crackdowns on protests that have killed dozens of people.

There is little doubt that these sanctions gave some actors in the Kabila government pause. But ultimately it was probably Angola that pushed the Congolese government to agree to re-enter negotiations from which the government stood little to gain. Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos’s government had made it clear to Kabila behind the scenes at the October SADC-ICGLR summit that the October 18 accord was too flimsy and would not convince domestic or international actors.

Kabila knows well how influential Angola can and has been in the DRC in the past, and that defying it could have serious implications for his government.

The December 31 political accord contains all of the most important elements for a credible election, notably the stipulation that Kabila not run again, and language about not changing the constitution in the period leading up to the polls – a loophole which existed in the October 18 agreement. The new accord also gives the opposition a number of significant posts, notably that of prime minister in charge of a newly formed government made up of representatives from all parties.

Veteran opposition leader Étienne Tshisekedi of the Union pour la démocratiet et le progrès social (UDPS) has been appointed to head the Conseil national de suivi de l’accord et du processus électoral (CNSA), the accord’s implementing body. CENCO officials have said that his appointment will ensure the accord is implemented in an objective manner and provides some reassurance for the population.

Other key elements aimed at ensuring the neutral management of the electoral process are that the government and the CNSA jointly monitor progress towards elections in 2017, and that the politicised electoral commission be reconstituted. On the subject of political detainees, the accord says that the cases against former Katangan governor Moïse Katumbi as well as several other prominent politicians should be placed under immediate review, and that activists from civil society groups La Lucha and Filimbi as well as any others arrested after the September and December protests be released.

All of these are important confidence-building measures that the various parties have committed to, on paper. In reality there has already been some back pedalling. The DRC government spokesperson has repeatedly said that the government signed the accord with reservations and that it must be inclusive; the government is banking on the fact that there will be much jockeying for positions before all parties sign the accord.

A number of significant players have not yet signed – notably the Front pour le respect de la constitution headed by the Mouvement pour la liberation du Congo (MLC) of Jean-Pierre Bemba, which has been insisting that it be guaranteed a leading position in the CNSA before it signs up.

While the MLC has been making reassuring noises that its signature is imminent, there is a potentially even more significant hurdle in the form of Prime Minister Samy Badibanga. Badibanga, a dissident member of the UDPS, was appointed to head a new government formed in November as part of the October 18 agreement. He and several other new ministers have rejected the latest accord on the grounds that it does not contain a clear electoral calendar.

Badibanga also says that as prime minister, he holds the sole constitutional right to form a government. If he refuses to step down and abide by the December 31 accord, parliament could vote to have him removed, but this is not guaranteed, as the majority in parliament is held by the presidential alliance.

So, where does all this leave matters? The key questions are what drove the Congolese president to make such significant concessions and whether he intends to stick to the terms of the December 31 accord, or simply use it to buy time.

Did Kabila give in to pressure from Angola and others, or has he calculated that the new accord will fail sooner or later and that he now won’t have to take the blame for it? If Badibanga refuses to step aside, that cannot be plausibly blamed on Kabila, nor can he be blamed for individual and opposition parties’ competition over senior positions – a dynamic that could yet scupper the deal.

Last week Kabila extended the church’s mediation role to the current phase of implementing the accord. Church officials involved in the talks have recognised that the hardest part starts now. CENCO vice-president Fridolin Ambongo told Radio Okapi last week: “This is the hardest part because it is about implementing the accord, which means giving posts to different political platforms … When you start to talk about [specific] people, sensitivities rise to the surface, as do egotistical interests.” DM

Stephanie Wolters is Head, Peace and Security Research Programme, ISS Pretoria

Join the online View on Africa briefing with Stephanie Wolters on 11 January, 11am-12pm, for a discussion on the latest developments in the DRC.