Delivering the National Policy and Financial Stability Statement (NPFSS) 2026 on Thursday at the Kigali Convention Centre, Governor Hakuziyaremye addressed members of the public and stakeholders from various sectors, emphasising the Central Bank’s mandate to maintain price stability and promote a sound and inclusive financial system.
“We meet at a time when the global economic environment is marked by elevated uncertainties, in particular geopolitical tensions, volatile stock markets, and commodity markets. These developments continue to shape global and domestic inflation dynamics, financial conditions, and growth prospects around the world and in Rwanda,” the governor stated.
The ongoing Middle East conflict began in late February 2026, when US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets escalated tensions in the region. This disruption triggered sharp increases in global energy prices.
The Governor noted that disruptions in oil and gas flows via the Strait of Hormuz have triggered sharp price increases, with crude oil rising 43% from $72 to $103 per barrel, and natural gas up 64% from $32 to $52 per megawatt-hour. She warned that these energy price shocks elevate risks to inflation and could slow economic activity if the conflict persists.
Despite global pressures, the Rwandan franc depreciated against the US dollar at a much slower pace in 2025, with a 4.4% decline compared to a 9.4% drop in 2024. This relative stability was supported by a stronger current account, boosted by tourism receipts and remittances, reforms in the domestic foreign exchange market, and a weakening of the US dollar globally.
Governor Hakuziyaremye also addressed concerns about the potential impact of the Middle East crisis on food and agriculture. When asked about fertiliser supply, which largely comes from the Middle East, she said that imports for upcoming agricultural seasons B and C are secure. However, the Central Bank and government will continue to monitor potential effects on season A, which starts in September.
“As a country, we diversify sources of fertiliser, and there are always ways to access raw materials when a region is impacted,” she explained.
Rwanda’s economy remained strong in 2025, with GDP growth of 9.4%, surpassing the Second National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) target of 9.3%. Growth was driven by industry (11%), services (8.5%), and agriculture (7.4%), supported by exports of coffee, minerals, and other industrial and digital services.
The Governor also highlighted developments in Rwanda’s financial sector, which recorded nearly 24% growth in total assets to 15.9 trillion Rwandan francs in 2025. Lending rose 25% to support households and businesses, with trade, construction, personal loans, and manufacturing accounting for 70% of total credit. Digital financial services expanded rapidly, with the eKash platform nearly tripling transaction values to 136 billion francs.
Looking ahead, the Central Bank remains vigilant against global and domestic risks, including geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks, virtual assets, operational and cyber threats, and limited financing in strategic sectors.
Inflation remains above target, with headline inflation at 9.2% in February 2026, slightly above the upper bound of 8%. The Governor said inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near term but gradually return to the target range of 2–8% by the end of 2026.
“In spite of global headwinds, the central bank remains confident in Rwanda’s macroeconomic stability, sustained growth, and the soundness of the financial system to support the financial resilience of households and businesses,” Governor Hakuziyaremye assured.
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