Tag: GreatLakesNews

{Although all recent Kenyan elections have shown degrees of unpreparedness, the 2017 elections may end up becoming the most ill-prepared poll the country will have.}

While the impasse over the fate of the outgoing members of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission was finally overcome through the Joint Select Committee that the ruling Jubilee and opposition Cord established to address outstanding questions that would allow the elections to go ahead, there had already been substantial delays in getting the country to that point.

The delay has since been compounded by a series of obstructionist measures that have been witnessed during the implementation of the deal that was agreed by the Joint Select Committee. One of the problems that caused this further stalling was a deadlock in agreeing a package that would constitute a “dignified exit” for the outgoing commissioners, as had been commanded in the agreement between two political parties.

The agreement provided that the outgoing commissioners could only leave office after new ones were appointed, creating an inbuilt disincentive to hurry the process towards their replacement.

The plan to appoint new IEBC commissioners also suffered delay when the selection panel was forced to vacate the initial shortlist of applications for the position of chair after the applicants were found to be wanting. The panel then re-advertised the position.

The work of the selection process has not been without its own controversies. The applicable law required the panel to identify two finalist candidates for the position of chair, for the President to pick one, and a further list of nine candidates out of which the President would fill the six positions of commissioners.

Questions have been raised over the selection criteria applied both by the President and the panel after relatively lower-ranked candidates were preferred over their better positioned competitors.

There have also emerged questions as to the suitability of the proposed chair, Wanyonyi Chebukati, following allegations that a law firm he is associated with was involved in unethical practices. The selection panel was placed in the extraordinary situation of taking out paid space in newspapers to defend its selection.

{{INTRODUCE AMENDMENTS}}

The new IEBC commissioners will thus take office under some cloud of doubt. Assuming that they receive the approval of the National Assembly, they will have about six months to prepare for the elections, a period that is significantly less than the not-less-than-two-years that was recommended by the Kriegler commission.

Difficulties in preparing for the elections have significantly been compounded by Jubilee’s decision to introduce amendments to the Election Laws (Amendment) Act, 2016, the law that codified elements of the agreement reached with Cord.

In the National Assembly, the debate on the amendment was stormy and was characterised by physical confrontations among opposing legislators, as police cordoned off the debating chamber, creating political tension in Parliament and around the country.

The main grievances by Cord revolved around the speed at which the Speaker of the Assembly seemed prepared to allow the processing of the law, and a view that since the law had been agreed on in a bipartisan process, any amendments should follow the same process.

A decision by Speaker Justin Muturi to refer the Bill to the Senate for concurrence shifted the attention to the upper house, which also passed the Bill without alteration. The chaotic events that had been witnessed before the Assembly provided the context in which the Senate convened to deliberate on whether to give its concurrence to the Bill.

The Senate set out to demonstrate a maturity that had lacked when the National Assembly debated the same Bill, with the Senate Speaker Ekwee Ethuro demanding a withdrawal of the police positioned outside the chambers.

Also, unlike in the National Assembly where debate was rushed, Mr Ethuro demonstrated a willingness to allow for consultations, directing the Legal Affairs committee to arrange sessions for the receipt of public views.

In the end, however, the debate and vote in the Senate reflected the same partisan positions that had been evident in the National Assembly, a demonstration that the Senate was unable to transcend the political divisions that the Bill had created at all levels. Even the proceedings of the Legal Affairs committee took the same party lines as would later be witnessed during the debate in plenary.

The opposition attempted to prevent debate in the Senate through a technical interpretation of what a session before Senate meant. However, the Speaker overruled the objection and allowed the debate to proceed.

While all the public submissions made to the committee opposed the passage of the Bill, these had no persuasive effect and were not even referred to when the vote was eventually taken.

UGLY PROCEEDINGS
Ultimately, it will be difficult to avoid the perception that the political establishment used the relative respectability of the Senate to sanitise the ugly proceedings that had taken place in the National Assembly.

To pass the Bill, the majority needed, and was able to obtain, the 24 votes that constitute a simple majority of the 47 delegations represented in the Senate. On the other hand, the task by the opposition was to prevent the majority from achieving the 24 votes.

In the end, much turned on the decision on the vote by the delegation from Kisii County, whose leader, Senator Chris Obure, reportedly donated a last-minute proxy in favour of the little-known Senator Hosea Ochwang’i, who cast the Kisii vote in favour of the amendments.

There were compelling arguments about the need for Senator Ochwang’i to consult with his co-delegate, Janet Ong’era, a requirement of the Constitution, and also about what should be made of the fact that Senator Obure, elected on an ODM ticket, had apparently defected to Jubilee without seeking a fresh mandate from the electorate that constituted his delegation.

Senator Gideon Moi, who had been expected to vote with the opposition, ended up supporting the Jubilee side. Senators of Kajiado and Narok counties, who had come under pressure from both Jubilee and Cord, stayed away during the vote, thus preserving their neutrality on the debate.

During the debate, the leadership of Speaker Ethuro was tested when a number of senators claimed that he had allowed a little more time before ordering the closing of the doors that would pave way for the voting to commence, to allow Senator Ochwang’i into the chambers. Claims also surfaced about irregularities affecting the Samburu delegation vote.

While the Mr Ethuro has avoided the withering criticism that has been reserved for his National Assembly counterpart, there is a sense in which he could have better guided the proceedings during the debate. Viewed in totality, the proceedings before the Senate had a certain sense of inevitability about them.

In retrospect, it seems that the Senate was set for a pre-determined outcome and that no reason was ever going to be good enough to stop that. Under the circumstances, all the motions before the vote were an act of window dressing, which would not affect the outcome.

Like the Supreme Court, which had promised so much but ended up delivering so little, the senate finds itself in the same position where, on an issue of some national importance, it was unable to rise to levels of leadership that would help to keep the country together.

The country goes into elections with Jubilee using its majorities in both houses of Parliament in a crushing manner that has left the opposition badly humiliated, and the country badly divided.

In the event of a major disagreement going forward, it is difficult to see what authorities remain which can mediate through such a crisis.

{Opposition CNARED group urges Ugandan president to immediately replace current facilitator after ‘failure’ in peace talks.}

Burundian opposition has called on the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to appoint a new facilitator in mediation efforts to end the country’s political crisis.

The opposition accused Benjamin Mkapa, facilitator of the Burundi peace talks and former Tanzanian president, of supporting the government.

“CNARED is asking the mediator of the Burundi crisis, Yoweri Museveni, to enter into consultation with the other heads of state of the East African Community (EAC) to find a new facilitator,” it said in a statement late Thursday.

Pending the appointment of a new facilitator, CNARED called on Mkapa to cease all efforts in organizing further inter-Burundian dialogue.

“Mkapa disqualified himself. He violated the basic principles of a facilitator that is to say impartiality and neutrality,” the statement said.

It also called on the African Union and the United Nations to support the new facilitator.

“Given the lack of effectiveness of Mkapa’s facilitation, CNARED asks that the future facilitator should be assisted by an AU and UN team with negotiating experts and linguistically able to communicate easily with the parties,” the statement said.

In December the CNARED called on Mkapa to resign after he said Burundi President Pierre Nkurunziza was legitimate.

Mkapa was appointed facilitator of Burundi peace talks in March 2016.

Meanwhile, the bureau of facilitation is busy preparing for a new round of Burundi peace talks scheduled for January. Mkapa had earlier said that the solution to the Burundian crisis will be found in June 2017.

The violence that erupted in April 2015 in Burundi has led to the death of about 1,000 people and forced over 310,000 more to flee the country and seek refuge in neighboring states, according to a report issued last November by the International Federation of Human Rights.

{Political stakeholders in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are finetuning modalities of a political deal brokered by a non-political group – the Catholic bishops of the National Episcopal Conference of the Congo (CENCO).}

CENCO’s decision to open a new dialogue despite a deal reached by the African Union mediator turned out to be more durable. The Edem Kodjo led process was boycotted by the main opposition parties hence it was seen as carrying relatively lesser weight.

The CENCO deal agreed on December 31, 2016 practically snatches the country from the brink of increased instability. The lead up to the deal was bloody with heavy security clampdown on protesters insisting that incumbent Kabila steps down.

I am a Congolese citizen, I will go home and I am running for president. The charges of plotting against the government are a distraction.
In the end, the opposition gets two main ‘victories.’ That Kabila agrees to step down with polls to be held later this year and more importantly, that he cannot change the constitution to allow him to run for a third term.

We present a sequence of the major events from 2015 till date.

January 17, 2015 – With about two years to the expiration to Kabila’s mandate, the parliament passed a bill that allowed him to extend his mandate beyond 2016.

January 19-22 – There were clashes between anti-Kabila protesters and security forces in the capital Kinshasa and other towns. Dozens were reported dead and several others arrested.

Note: The government sought to justify the law allowing Kabila to continue in power with the excuse that a new voters register was needed for general elections and that it would take time to compile. DRC is a country of an estimated 70 million people.

A planned census for 2015 has yet to take place. Joseph Kabila took over after the assassination of his father Laurent Kabila. He has been in power for about 15 years and his second and final term ended on December 20, 2016.

April 2016 – Darryl Lewis, an American security aide of Mosie Katumbi, a former governor and ally of Kabila was arrested during a street protest and detained together with three other members of Katumbi’s entourage in the southern city of Lubumbashi.

May 2016 – Katumbi, the former governor of Katanga province declared presidential intentions. He was and is still seen as a strong opposition candidate. Katumbi joined opposition ranks in September 2015.

May 11, 2016 – A constitutional court ruled that Kabila can stay on when mandate expires till successor is elected.

Later in May – Katumbi , owner and bankroller of TP Mazembe football club, appeared before a prosecutor in Lubumbashi over charges of hiring mercenaries. His security aide was subsequently freed and ordered out of the DRC.

Katumbi left the DRC to South Africa before being flown to Europe to seek medical treatment after he inhaled tear gas fumes fired by police when he appeared before the prosecutor with his supporters to answer to the ‘mercenaries’ charges.

June 2016 – Katumbi was jailed 36 months in absentia and fined $6m in a property appropriation case. His lawyers claimed the courts’ ruling was part of a political distraction meant to derail his ambitions.

June 10, 2016 – Katumbi with leading opposition figure, Etienne Tshisekedi decide to set up an opposition coalition.

July 2016 – Tsisekedi returns to DRC after two years in Belgium, he demands elections and Kabila’s exit while speaking to a huge section of his supporters.

July 2016 – the electoral body entered an agreement with a Dutch outfit, Gemalto, to help with the compilation of a biometric register and the conduct of its next elections. According to Corneille Nangaa, President of CENI, “We needed a reliable partner to facilitate our ambitious program, which we expect will enroll up to 45 million voters.”

August 2016 – The Electoral body (CENI) says polls are only possible by April 2018. The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) cited lack of funding and delays in voter registration as the major factors behind the postponement.

September 19–20, 2016 – Main opposition party calls for protests three months to Kabila’s tenure expiration. Scores dead as police apply ‘brutal’ force according to the United Nations and human rights groups.

October 17, 2016 – DRC’s constitutional court allows CENI to postpone November polls and ordered the immediate roll out of a new calendar for the next elections.

The last calender they presented indicated that a credible voters register will be ready in July 2017 after which they need over 500 days to organize polls in July 2018. The parliamentary majority and breakaway faction of opposition agree poll extension to April 2018.

AU backed deal is reached with Edem Kodjo as facilitator but main opposition refused participation from day 1. As part of the deal, Prime Minister Matata Ponyo resigns and opposition candidate Samy Badibanga is named new Prime Minister.

Katumbi told the British broadcaster, BBC in October that he will run for president, ‘‘I am a Congolese citizen, I will go home and I am running for president. The charges of plotting against the government are a distraction,” he emphasized.

The Church’s ‘saviour’ role

The CENCO who were earlier part of the AU mediation pulled out after the September clashes saying it wanted ‘‘to mourn dead protesters,’‘ also at some point they warned that a deal that keeps Kabila in office beyond 2017 will not be acceptable.

December 8, 2016 – CENCO opens fresh dialogue to set up transitional authority until polls can definitively be held – target reaching a deal by middle of December.

December 12, 2016 – The US and EU sanctioned top officials of the regime for complicity in using deadly force on protesters.

December 15, 2016 – Bloomberg releases Kabila family’s business interests in the country links to why he doesn’t want to leave. Claimed that since the end of the civil war in 2003, the family of the Kabila is reported to have flourished by owning at least 70 companies.

According to a the Bloomberg report published on Thursday, December 15, 2016, the scope the Kabila empire has recently become visible after Congolese regulators computerized and made corporate and government records publicly available.

December 17, 2016 – Church suspended talks till after expiration of Kabila’s mandate in three days’ time (December 20)

December 20–22, 2016 – A new round of protests as Kabila’s mandate expires, groups ‘‘bye-bye Kabila’‘ and ‘‘Filimbi’‘ were rounded up. Some were later released whiles others were jailed.

In Goma, Lubumbashi, Kinshasa, violent clashes between security and protesters led to deaths. Kabila’s spokesman a day after his mandate expired said ‘‘nothing changes and that he (Kabila) was still in charge. A new cabinet was also named with Badibanga as PM.

CENCO resumed negotiations with the hope of a deal by Christmas. A deal was announced by opposition members but it wasn’t corroborated by the government, the negotiators said some other fine details were being ironed out and that they were close.

On the last day of the year 2016, the church officially announced a deal. Its major conditionality being that Kabila agrees to leave office by end of 2017 contrary to 2018 as earlier projected. That he cannot under any circumstance be a candidate as says the constitution.

January 1 – CENCO accord was signed by all stakeholders. Between January and when Kabila exits, he will be president but a transitional body will be set up to be led by Tshisekedi and a new opposition prime minister will be named.