In a statement released on March 13, the global credit rating agency said the outlook revision reflects reduced uncertainty over Rwanda’s access to external funding and growing confidence that public debt levels will stabilise in the coming years.
Fitch noted that strong donor support has helped ease near-term fiscal and external financing risks. External disbursements from multilateral and bilateral partners reached about $1 billion, equivalent to 6.1% of GDP, in the fiscal year ending June 2025. The agency expects official external loan commitments to remain close to $1 billion annually between 2026 and 2027, supporting government financing needs.
The agency also pointed to recent diplomatic engagement and de-escalation of conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo as helping reduce uncertainty over Rwanda’s access to concessional financing, although it cautioned that the regional security environment remains fragile.
Rwanda’s public debt is expected to rise in the short term as the government continues to finance major infrastructure and development projects. According to Fitch, government debt could reach around 79% of GDP by 2027, up from 75% in 2025, before gradually stabilising as growth and fiscal adjustments take effect.
The increase in borrowing is partly linked to large-scale investments, including the construction of Bugesera International Airport and the expansion of the national carrier RwandAir. However, Fitch noted that most of Rwanda’s external debt remains highly concessional, helping maintain manageable debt servicing costs.
Economic growth remains a key strength supporting the rating. Fitch estimates that Rwanda’s real GDP growth reached 8% in 2025 and expects it to remain above 7% through 2027, significantly higher than the median growth rate for countries with similar credit ratings.
Recent data from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda also showed strong economic momentum, with the economy expanding 11.8% in the third quarter of 2025, driven largely by the services and industrial sectors.
As Rwanda continues investing in major infrastructure projects, Fitch projects the current account deficit to widen to around 15% of GDP in 2026, reflecting strong import demand linked to ongoing economic development.
Fitch said improvements in export performance, stronger foreign reserve levels and sustained fiscal consolidation could support a future upgrade of Rwanda’s credit rating.
Fitch Ratings is an American-British credit rating agency. It is one of the three nationally recognised statistical rating organisations designated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is considered as being one of the “Big Three credit rating agencies”, along with Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings.
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