DRC settles one election conflict but is thrown into another

{Political rivals fall out over choice of prime minister before poll agreed under peace deal}

For months, it was a battle for the presidency that threatened to plunge the Democratic Republic of Congo back into conflict. Now, just weeks after a surprise political deal that pulled the country back from the brink, a power struggle has erupted over who will be the next prime minister.

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If successful, the vote would mark the country’s first democratic transition of power since independence in 1960. But squabbles between Mr Kabila and the opposition over the selection of a prime minister are undermining the deal even before it is implemented.

“What’s going on shows an implosion is inevitable because the [political] system is not set up to solve problems like these,” said Hans Hoebeke, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “We’re not there yet, and in the past negotiations in Congo have taken a year longer than planned. But the signs are worrying.”

Catholic bishops who brokered the agreement and secured Mr Kabila’s pledge to step down when the elections are held warned at the weekend that “every day of delay makes it harder to achieve our goal”.

“The establishment of a national unity government is more than urgent,” they said in a statement.

Under the constitution, Mr Kabila, who has led the DRC since the assassination his father, former president Laurent Kabila, in 2001, was supposed to relinquish power when his second elected term ended on December 19. But his insistence on remaining in office sparked a series of deadly protests in which dozens of people were killed. Further unrest was predicted before the bishops managed to broker the unexpected accord.

The parties agreed that Mr Kabila would retain power, with the opposition to nominate the prime minister of a new interim government that would organise elections by the end of the year. The president would then step down. The deal was seen as a breakthrough in the large, mineral-rich country that has been blighted by years of conflict and instability.

But three weeks later, little progress has been made. Not only are the two sides split on how the prime minister should be appointed, they cannot agree on how the electoral commission should be restructured, let alone set a timetable for the polls.

The opposition has nominated Felix Tshisekedi, son of Etienne Tshisekedi, a veteran politician, for the premiership, while the government insists five candidates should be put forward.

Neither Mr Kabila nor Samy Badibanga, his prime minister, has signed the accord.

Furthermore, promised freedoms have yet to materialise. Many political prisoners remain in custody, Radio France International is among media that are still barred and the activities of human rights groups is severely restricted.

Both sides blame each other for the stalemate.

Andre-Alain Atundu Liongo, a government negotiator, issued a statement last week accusing the opposition of wanting to “create a fractious atmosphere of crisis . . . to realise their plan of chaos and to establish an alternative regime”.

Abraham Luakabuanga, an opposition spokesman, said Mr Kabila’s administration was not committed to achieving a deal.

“They want to keep all the main ministries [in the new government] for themselves — justice, defence, the interior and finance,” he said. “This is nonsense.”

Jason Stearns, director of the Congo Research Group at New York University, said an election this year was “very unlikely”.

“There’s a good chance it will happen in 2018 because everyone’s legitimacy is based on holding elections sooner rather than later,” he said. “But that’s not guaranteed and if it doesn’t the country is in deep trouble because the current fragile consensus will break up.”

Neighbouring countries appear increasingly concerned.

Denis Sassou Nguesso, president of the Republic of Congo, told the bishops on a visit to Kinshasa last week they were “the last bulwark” for peace and like “a dam that must not yield”.

Angola, once a close ally of Mr Kabila, has started distancing itself from the president, while reminding him to abide by the deal.

International pressure was crucial in securing the accord. Mr Stearns believes it will be equally important to prevent the process collapsing amid concerns that Mr Kabila has little intention of leaving office unless pushed.

“His game plan is to play for time and hope that something will turn up,” Mr Stearns said. “His problem is he doesn’t know what that something will be.”