Category: Politics

  • Gabon election: Security forces storm opposition HQ after disputed result

    {Gabonese security forces have stormed the headquarters of the defeated presidential candidate, Jean Ping, after they accused “armed criminals” of torching the parliament.
    Mr Ping said two people had been killed as live shots were fired.}

    His supporters had been staging protests after official results gave President Ali Bongo a narrow victory in Saturday’s presidential election.

    They accused the government of stealing the election.

    The election result, announced on Wednesday afternoon, gave Mr Bongo a second seven-year term with 49.8% of the vote to Mr Ping’s 48.2% – a margin of 5,594 votes.

    Mr Ping’s camp has said figures from the president’s stronghold showed a 99% turnout.

    He said the election was fraudulent and “everybody knows” he won.

    Mr Ping denounced the raid which happened while he away from the building.

    “They attacked around 01:00 (00:00 GMT). It is the republican guard,” he said. “They were bombarding with helicopters and then they attacked on the ground.”

    Mr Ping has called for international assistance to protect the population and has called for voting figures from each polling station to made public.

    The US and EU have also called for the results to be made public while UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged calm.

    Mr Bongo took office in 2009 after an election marred by violence, succeeding his father Omar Bongo who had come to power in 1967.

    Mr Ping had been a close ally of Omar Bongo, serving him in ministerial roles and having two children with his daughter, Pascaline, a former Gabonese foreign minister herself.

    Smoke and flames poured from the national assembly building in Libreville
  • Uganda:Why NRM beat Opposition in new districts

    {NRM won all the LC5 and Woman MP slots except the Omoro LC5 seat won by a former NRM member.}

    Kampala. The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) won with a landslide in the new districts, lending credence to the long-held argument that new districts are created to further entrench the ruling party’s dominance.

    NRM has more than 300 MPs and added four to these after winning all the Woman MP slots in the new districts.

    In a March, 2015 letter to the Local Government minister, President Museveni argued for the creation of new districts as a way that would help to resolve complicated administration issues, separate various ethnic groups and address poor planning.

    {{NRM takes all }}

    NRM won all the LC5 and Woman MP slots except the Omoro LC5 seat won by a former NRM member. The race was not even close in the majority of the races with the leading NRM candidates sometimes garnering double or more the score of their closest challengers.

    Opposition party Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidates mostly trailed in the third place, with NRM-leaning independent candidates coming second.

    But what helped NRM, which has in the past not done well in bye-elections, to not only win but also for the Opposition to lose miserably?

    “Our performance in past bye-elections has been harmed by internal rivalry. We would face a united front in the Opposition but also a fight within NRM. This time, we didn’t have any division in most of the constituencies,” Dr Tanga Odoi, the NRM electoral commission chairman, said.

    Dr Tanga tagged the party’s success in the elections to “a well-packaged message, the realisation that people have achieved through NRM, a divided Opposition, people getting fed up with Opposition politics based on lies and violence.”

    In an interview with Daily Monitor, FDC publicity secretary for Gulu and Omoro, Mr Wilson Oyat Chagga, said they are “dissatisfied” with the results, adding that they are yet to discuss with their candidates on the next course of action.

    “I personally and FDC party are not satisfied with the polls because of the anomalies. Government vehicles have been used by NRM leaders to ferry people from the districts bordering Omoro to come and vote,” he said.

    Mr Chagga also blamed their loss on FDC party members failing to provide block support to the chosen party flag bearers.

    For example, FDC member and Gulu LC5 chairperson Martin Ojara Mapenduzi, openly backed Independent Peter Okello Okao, who eventually defeated FDC’s Simon Toolit Akecha by a margin of less than 100 votes.

    {{Opposition disunited?}}

    NRM publicity secretary for Gulu and Omoro Christopher Opiyo Ateker says their party capitalised on the disunity within the Opposition.

    Mr Crispy Kaheru, the coordinator Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda, which deployed observers to all the polling areas, called for the enforcement of the political parties code of conduct, as well as pass a water-tight legislation around campaign financing.

    “We have generally seen a lot of voter bribery incidents and questionable assisted voting, especially in Rubanda. Voters too were being seen soliciting money from candidates’ agents, before they proceeded to their respective polling stations to vote,” he said.

    Ms Noeline Kisembo Basemera (NRM), Kibaale Woman MP and Ms Catherine Lamwaka (NRM), took the Omoro Woman MP seat
  • SADC Chairperson hails Magufuli at summit

    {Outgoing Southern African Development Community (SADC) Chairperson and Botswana President Seretse Khama Ian Khama has toasted President John Magufuli for his victory in last year’s general election.}

    Mr Khama is in Swaziland for the 36th SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government that kicked off yesterday in Mbabane, Swaziland.

    The summit ends today and President Khama, who is the current SADC chairperson, is expected to pass the baton to King Mswati III of Swaziland. President Magufuli was represented at the summit by the Vice-President, Ms Samia Suluhu Hassan.

    The Botswana president said growth of democracy to SADC member states was increasing at high speed and that it was important to boost those efforts.

    President Khama said he had much trust in leaders within the SADC grouping such as Dr Magufuli of Tanzania, who were elected through transparent and peaceful means that would help foster development in the regional bloc.

    Heads of States from SADC witnessed during the meeting presentation of awards to students who won essay writing competition as well as journalists who were recognized for their news and feature stories on various issues in the bloc.

    The leaders at the 36th meeting are today expected to elect the Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson in addition to the Chair for the SADC Organ on Defense, Security and Politics (SADCTroika).

    They are also scheduled to receive drafts on amendments of a number of conventions to be presented by the Ministerial Council.

    President John Magufuli
  • Rwanda to share experiences with EU parliamentarians

    {A delegation of eight European Union parliamentarians from the Women Rights Commission is set to visit Rwanda in September 2016 to learn from the country’s best practices in promoting gender equality and women rights.}

    As preparations are underway, Michael Ryan, the head of European Union Delegation to Rwanda yesterday met the president of Rwanda’s parliamentary chamber of deputies, Mukabalisa Donatille ahead of the visit to hold discussions on preparing for the arrival of EU MPs to Rwanda.

    After the talks, Amb. Ryan told the press that the European Union parliamentarians will hold talks with various sectors to get a proper appreciation of Rwanda’s strategies in the promotion of gender equality and existing projects.

    “ It is a great opportunity to have European Union parliamentarians discussing with their Rwandan counterparts on gender equality promotion and learning from Rwanda’s experiences since it is among the leading countries which have a large number of women in the parliament and other sectors,” he said.

    “They will get to appreciate how the civil society, non-governmental organizations and other associations cooperate in the promotion of gender equality and rights of both sexes. They will also hold talks with individuals,” he added.

    The president of Rwanda’s parliamentary chamber of deputies, Mukabalisa Donatille has said that “the coming of European Union parliamentarians underscores the good cooperation between Rwanda parliament with other legislative institutions.”

    European Union Parliamentarians will be in Rwanda from September 20th 2016 to September 23rd, 2016.

    Today, Rwanda has the largest number of women representatives in the parliament at 63. 8%.

    The 2015 report of ‘Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance’ rated Rwanda at the second place in promoting gender equality in Africa with 87. 6%.

    Michael Ryan, the head of European Union Delegation to Rwanda
    The president of Rwanda’s parliamentary chamber of deputies, Mukabalisa Donatille
  • South Sudan peace deal hangs in the balance as rebel chief Riek Machar flees

    {The peace deal, signed in August 2015 by rebel leader Machar and President Salva Kiir, hangs in the balance.}

    War-torn South Sudan’s slide into chaos resumed last month with fresh fighting in the capital Juba that forced rebel leader turned vice-president and peace deal signatory Riek Machar to flee.

    With the spike in clashes came a surge of abuse of civilians by armed men including rape, murder and looting.

    A year-old peace deal was only partly implemented and, as July’s battles showed, was insufficient to stop the war — yet regional and foreign powers cling to it as the country’s only hope.

    So where next for hopes of peace in South Sudan and for rebel leader Machar?

    {{Is there still peace agreement with South Sudan?}}

    The deal, signed in August 2015 by rebel leader Machar and President Salva Kiir, hangs in the balance.

    Machar has fled the country and been replaced as vice-president by Taban Deng Gai, who leads a Juba-based faction of the opposition SPLM/A-IO.

    Deng’s appointment has yet to be fully accepted by either Machar loyalists or the international community that forced through the peace deal.

    During a visit to Kenya this month, US Secretary of State John Kerry hinted at US acceptance of the new reality when he described Machar’s ouster as a “replacement of personnel” that was legal under the agreement.

    {{Where is rebel leader Rieck Machar?}}

    Machar fled Juba on foot after fighting in the city ended on July 11.

    He resurfaced in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo on August 18 and then flew to the Sudanese capital Khartoum for unspecified medical treatment.

    Aides say Machar is eager to reassert himself politically as soon as he is fit and well by visiting regional countries that are members of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) bloc which has led successive rounds of peace talks.

    {{WHO BACKS MACHAR AND WHO IS AGAINST HIM?}}

    Machar left a sharply divided (and, in Juba, militarily defeated) former rebel movement in his wake when he fled.

    Deng enjoys the backing of Kiir but field commanders, armed forces and SPLM/A-IO leaders outside Juba continue to back Machar — for now.

    “Machar is still an influential leader as long as he is alive,” said James Okuk, a political scientist at Juba University.

    IGAD has said that Deng should step aside when Machar returns, but the longer Machar is absent the stronger Deng’s claim becomes and he may yet consolidate his position among the former rebels too.

    One way to achieve this, analysts say, would be for Deng and Kiir to move ahead with integrating rebel forces into the national army, effectively disarming Machar while implementing a key provision of the peace accords.

    {{CAN MACHAR STAGE A COMEBACK?
    }}

    Machar loyalists are being rooted out of South Sudan’s parliament and cabinet and being replaced with Deng’s allies, weakening Machar’s influence.

    Five out of 10 SPLM-IO ministers have been replaced along with 25 out of 50 MPs.

    Meanwhile Deng has quickly taken up the functions of the vice-presidency, undertaking official visits to both Kenya and Sudan in recent weeks.

    Machar’s future appears to rest in foreign hands and is largely dependent on whether the international community is willing to move ahead on a peace agreement without him.

    {{WILL THE PROMISED UN ‘PROTECTION FORCE’ BE DEPLOYED?}}

    On August 12 the UN Security Council approved the deployment of a so-called “protection force” in South Sudan to bolster the much-criticised peacekeeping operation there and enable the implementation of the peace agreement.

    Machar has said he will not return to Juba until a “neutral force” is in place and his safety guaranteed, but Kiir’s government has resisted the UN plan, insisting it is a challenge to South Sudan’s sovereignty and that further negotiations over the force’s mandate are needed.

    While South Sudan has stopped short of refusing to accept more peacekeepers, the government has yet to accept them either, and it is impossible to imagine UN soldiers being deployed against the will of the government.

    South Sudan rebel leader Riek Machar (centre) meets with his supporters after landing at Juba International Airport on April 26, 2016. Chaos resumed in July with fresh fighting in the capital Juba that forced Machar to flee.
  • Gabon poll: Ali Bongo rival Jean Ping claims victory

    {Gabon’s main opposition candidate has claimed victory over President Ali Bongo in Saturday’s poll, alleging electoral fraud.}

    Jean Ping, ex-head of the African Union commission, said he was waiting for the president to call and congratulate him.

    Mr Bongo, whose family has governed for nearly 50 years, has called for calm and for people to wait for official results on Tuesday.

    Gabon is a major oil producer, but still has high levels of poverty.

    The head of the 70-strong European Union election monitoring team in the country has said the polls “lacked transparency”.

    The atmosphere in the capital Libreville was calm overnight, according to a BBC correspondent on the ground.

    The head of the African Union election observer mission in Gabon, Casam Uteem told BBC Focus on Africa that he was not worried by the uncertainty.

    “So long as as the results are not made official, I don’t think anybody can claim victory at this stage,” he said.

    Ali Bongo won disputed elections in 2009, following the death of his father Omar Bongo, who led the small West African nation for 41 years.

    Mr Ping announced his victory to supporters in Libreville on Sunday
  • Burundi Parliament to Review Plan on Scrapping Term Limits

    {Burundi’s parliament is set to begin reviewing a report from a national commission, convened by the president, that says the people are in favor of scrapping term limits. Is this a sign the ruling party has been able to use a year-long political crisis to consolidate power? Or could this revitalize the opposition?}

    In October 2015, the government of Burundi formed a commission to find a solution to the country’s political crisis.

    The crisis began the previous April, when President Pierre Nkurunziza announced a plan to run for a third term, a move that critics said violated the constitution and the Arusha peace agreement that ended the country’s civil war.

    The 15-member committee was tasked with collecting the views of Burundians on the best way to put a stop to the crisis.

    {{Controversial findings}}

    Almost a year later, parliament is set to debate the committee’s provisional report, which says the majority of Burundians favor abolishing the two-term limit from the constitution.

    Vital Nshirimana, the head of Burundi’s Forum for Strengthening Civil Society (FORSC), says the views presented to the parliament do not represent those of all Burundians.

    “From the start, the commission we noticed that the commission was exclusive, because they only listened to people that are members of the CNDD-FDD [the ruling party] and its allies, who from the beginning talked about amendment of the constitution and the cancellation of the term limits because they believed this was an obstacle for Nkurunziza to run the country forever,” he said.

    The opposition group CNARED, whose members are mostly in exile, has accused the government of blocking it from taking part in the political dialogue.

    The government has said it is reluctant to speak to those who were involved in armed conflict in the country. Hundreds of people died in clashes between protesters and security agencies last year.

    The commission’s president, Bishop Justin Nzoyisaba, acknowledges the commission has consulted only a quarter of the organizations with whom they planned to speak.

    “In Bujumbura, we had some groups like journalists and businessmen who we did not speak to… We had 20 groups. We already spoke to six groups, but we will speak to them before the final report,” he said.

    Some opposition members say that if term limits are eliminated, it will be a setback for democracy.

    Vital says the move to change the constitution will create more problems.

    “This is extremely dangerous because this will lead to the same causes that led to the crisis that led to the civil war,” he said.

    More than 300,000 Burundians were killed in the 13-year war, which ended in 2006.

    Burundi's President Pierre Nkurunziza arrives for the ruling Conseil National pour la Defense de la Democratie - Forces pour Defense de la Democratie (CNDD-FDD) party extraordinary congress in Gitega Province, Burundi, Aug. 20, 2016.
  • Kenya:ODM legislators say Raila must be Cord flagbearer

    {As Mudavadi’s ANC deny they are in talks with Mr Odinga to form a coalition.}

    Orange leaders have vowed to ensure party leader Raila Odinga wins the Cord presidential ticket in next year’s General Election.

    This comes as the Amani National Congress (ANC) said its leader Musalia Mudavadi is not engaged in any coalition talks with Mr Odinga.

    ANC secretary-general Godfrey Osotsi said Mr Mudavadi’s priority was to strengthen the party before starting any talks with like-minded outfits.

    ODM national vice chairman Josephat Nanok and seven MPs argued that Mr Odinga stood a better chance of winning the Cord ticket against Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula and any other candidate interested in the coalition.

    “Raila will be the candidate and ODM will win. Party politics is about taking power democratically in elections,” Mr Nanok told Nation by phone.

    Kitutu Masaba MP Timothy Bosire and ODM treasurer Florence Mutua (Busia woman rep), Chris Omulele (Luanda), Edick Anyanga (Nyatike), Sylvance Osele (Kabondo Kasipul), Rose Nyamunga (Kisumu woman rep) and Opondo Kaluma (Homa Bay Town) said Mr Odinga is the best bet for Cord.

    “Raila has been tried, tested and is trusted. He has a wider constituency across the country and nothing will stop him from clinching the Cord ticket,” Mr Bosire said.

    Mr Odinga is battling it out with Mr Musyoka and Mr Wetang’ula for the Cord ticket and he has indicated in the past he is ready to sacrifice his presidential ambition to beat Jubilee.

    Last Friday, Luo Council of Elders endorsed him, saying his 2017 candidature is not negotiable. Council chairman Willis Otondi said they resolved to have Mr Odinga’s name on the ballot.

    Secretary Owino Nyady said, “We own Raila. Raila does not own us. Therefore our resolution is final. Raila must run for President in 2017 and this matter is not negotiable.”

    On Monday, Mr Omulele said Mr Odinga has both local and international networks and a large financial muscle that no other candidate can match.

    “Our candidate is Agwambo (Mr Odinga) and we are not compromising on that. He cannot be going round the country campaigning only to support somebody else for the Cord ticket,” he said.

    “He is therefore up to the task. Nothing comes on a silver platter. He will fly our flag in 2017. We follow him not just as Mr Odinga but because of what he believes in,” the Luanda MP said.

    Mr Anyanga said Mr Odinga’s record speaks for itself.

    “The flagbearer is a matter of getting a person with numbers hence possibility of winning. If anybody feels he is popular and can win he or she should join Mr Odinga so they win as a team,” the Nyatike MP said.

    He said it is not possible that Mr Odinga will support another candidate.

    HUNTING FOR VOTES

    “Then why has he been criss-crossing the country in hunt for votes?” asked Mr Anyanga.

    Mr Osele said Mr Odinga will not endorse another candidate as witnessed in 2002 when he supported retired President Mwai Kibaki.

    “The political dynamics are currently different. During “Kibaki Tosha” time, the idea of coalition was still new and Mr Odinga’s stature was still rising but today the coalition principles are properly entrenched and Raila’s political stature has risen in Coast, Western, Eastern, North Eastern and Nairobi in addition to Nyanza,” he said.

    (READ: Raila endorsement by elders bad for Cord – Mutula Jnr)

    The stand by the ODM leaders is likely to rub the wrong way their Wiper and Ford Kenya allies who have been lobbying for their leaders to get the Cord ticket. There has also been talk of Mr Odinga disbanding Cord and forming a wider alliance which includes Mr Mudavadi.

    But on Monday, ANC’s secretary general Geoffrey Osotsi said it was premature to speak of formal talks between Mr Mudavadi and Mr Odinga.

    “The strengthening of ANC party across the country is our main priority as we prepare for the 2017 elections. While doing so, we appreciate the strategic importance of partnerships and coalition building with like-minded political organisations including Cord or its affiliate parties.

    Mr Osotsi explained that structured talks on future coalitions which Mr Mudavadi could join will be based on the provisions in the ANC constitution and will not be made by the roadside.

    “The structured process of coalition building is clearly specified in our party constitution and at the opportune time that process will be invoked within the framework of our party constitution and the relevant legislation,” he said.

    Mr Osotsi was reacting to a report quoting MPs Junet Mohamed (ODM) and Ayub Savula (UDF) that Mr Mudavadi’s ANC was one of the parties which were in talks with Mr Odinga to form a super alliance that will garner adequate numbers to defeat the Jubilee Coalition in the 2017 elections.

    He argued the fact that ANC has a commonality with the Cord coalition on policy issues should not be used to claim that Mr Mudavadi was in talks to join the opposition coalition.

    Cord leader Raila Odinga (behind microphones) flanked by Turkana Governor Josphat Nanok (second left) and other ODM lawmakers in Kalokol, Turkana Central, on August 28, 2016 when they campaigned for an ODM candidate for ward representative in a by-election scheduled for October.
  • Colombia ceasefire ends half-century-long war

    {Government and FARC fighters declare end to 52-year-old conflict, with a peace deal expected to be signed in September.}

    A ceasefire to end the 52-year-old war between the Colombian state and FARC fighters has gone into effect, with a full peace agreement expected to be signed in September.

    The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) has issued the order for its men to observe the ceasefire from midnight (05:00 GMT Monday).

    Juan Manuel Santos, Colombia’s president, said on Twitter: “This August 29 a new chapter begins for Colombia. We are putting down our weapons. We’ve ended the war with FARC!”

    Hundreds of thousands of Colombians have died since 1964 as government forces and FARC fighters battled in the jungles in what is considered Latin America’s last major civil armed conflict.

    On the government side, Santos on Thursday ordered the Colombian national armed forces to halt military operations against the FARC.

    “The end of the conflict has arrived!,” he said on Twitter.

    In a declaration before the media on Sunday in Cuba, where peace talks were held, Timoleon Jimenez, top FARC leader, said: “I order all our commanders and units and each one of our combatants to definitively cease fire and hostilities against the Colombian state from midnight tonight.

    “We noted with excitement the president’s order to the army. Consequently we are proceeding to give the same order to our troops.”

    The FARC declared a unilateral ceasefire in July 2015. But Sunday night’s ceasefire is the first in which both sides have committed to a definitive end to the fighting.

    “The ceasefire is really one more seal on the end of the conflict. It is the test of fire,” said Carlos Alfonso Velazquez, a security expert at the University of La Sabana.

    Santos and Timochenko are due to sign a final, full peace agreement sometime between September 20 and 26.

    The ceasefire and definitive end of hostilities will be followed by a six-month demobilisation process.

    From Monday, the FARC’s estimated 7,500 fighters will start heading to collection points to give up their weapons under UN supervision.

    Guerrillas who refuse to demobilise and disarm “will be pursued with all the strength of the state forces,” Santos told El Espectador newspaper.

    Before the demobilisation, the FARC will convene its leaders and troops one last time before transforming into “a legal political movement,” according to a statement published on Saturday.

    Peace referendum

    On October 2, Colombians will go to the polls to cast ballots in a referendum that Santos hopes will endorse the peace agreement.

    “A victory for the ‘Yes’ vote will be a mandate from citizens for future governments,” Santos was quoting as saying by El Espectador.

    “The plebiscite will grant the political legitimacy that is needed.”

    He said the exact question that will be posed to voters in the referendum would be announced “in the coming days.”

    “We are on the verge of perhaps the most important political decision of our lives,” Santos said in a speech on Saturday

    The territorial and ideological conflict has drawn in various left- and right-wing armed groups and gangs.

    It has left some 260,000 dead, 45,000 missing and 6.9 million people uprooted from their homes.

    Efforts to launch peace talks with a smaller rebel group, the National Liberation Army, have yet to bear fruit.

    But with the country’s biggest rebel group, the FARC, ordering a definitive ceasefire, the conflict appears to be reaching an end.

    Both sides have committed to a definitive end to the fighting
  • Gabon election: Jean Ping lays claim to presidency win

    {Jean Ping claims victory as incumbent President Ali Bongo says he is “calmly” awaiting Tuesday’s official result.}

    Gabon’s opposition presidential candidate Jean Ping has claimed victory over incumbent President Ali Bongo, whose family has ruled the oil-rich African nation for nearly half a century.

    “The decision taken by the population is known now by everybody,” Ping told Al Jazeera on Sunday. “Gabon is a small country so it is possible to know all the results right now,” he said.

    Ping, 73, said that he declared himself winner to prevent 57-year-old President Bongo from manipulating the results.

    “They are going to re-make the same thing which happened in 2009,” he said, referring to Bongo’s contested victory in the presidential poll seven years ago.

    “That means to cheat. Not to proclaim the results right now but to continue to try to manipulate the results. We don’t want such a situation to happen. That’s why we are trying to prevent,” Ping said.

    Earlier on Sunday, Ping had told supporters in the capital Libreville that he was winning the presidential vote.

    “The general trends indicate we’re the winner of this important presidential election,” Ping said according to Reuters news agency.

    The opposition leader made his victory declaration despite warnings by the country’s interior minister against candidates giving results ahead of their official announcement on Tuesday.

    Responding to Ping’s claims, Bongo said that he was “calmly” waiting for the results, while his campaign said they were confident he will hold on to power.

    “We respect the law … so we are waiting calmly for Cenap (the national election commission) to announce the results of the election,” Bongo told a crowd of supporters on Sunday, according to AFP news agency.

    Official results from Saturday’s vote are not due out until 1600 GMT on Tuesday and candidates are prohibited by law from making announcements on the likely outcome.

    Igor Simard, Bongo’s spokesman, said that nobody could claim victory when votes were still being counted by the authorities.

    “The fight is tight but we are confident our candidate will win,” Simard told Al Jazeera.

    “What gives us confidence is that the remaining constituencies to be declared are traditionally our strongholds,” he said.

    The head of the Pan-African Democracy Observatory, an NGO based in neighbouring Togo, downplayed the significance of Ping’s declaration.

    “We should not be surprised if one or the other declare victory. It’s all part of the game,” Djovi Gally told reporters.

    Gabon’s one-round electoral system means the winner simply requires more votes than any other candidate.

    In 2009, Bongo won with 41.73 percent of the vote.

    Oumar Ba, a political analyst, told Al Jazeera that a Ping victory would be “a major shift in Gabon” and also for African politics in general, particularly if Bongo accepts defeat and hands over power.

    Bongo is also capable of holding on to power, Ba said.

    “If Bongo wants to hold on to power he has the machine that will allow him to do so,” said Ba, explaining that the country’s electoral commission is not entirely independent, and the constitutional court, which would adjudicate challenges to the result, is made up of judged appointed by Bongo.

    Ping and Bongo family ties

    A former foreign minister and African Union Commission (AUC) chairman, Ping was a close ally of the incumbent president’s father, Omar Bongo, who ruled for 42 years until his death in 2009.

    Ping and the younger Bongo worked for years together under Bongo senior, who was responsible for getting the current opposition leader his job as chairman of the AUC.

    Ping also has close family ties to the Bongo dynasty: he was formerly married to Omar Bongo’s eldest daughter with whom he had two children.

    But, Ping turned on Bongo junior in 2014, and in March he told French daily Le Monde that “Gabon is a pure and simple dictatorship in the hands of a family, a clan”.

    On Sunday, the streets of Libreville were almost deserted. Fearing a repeat of the violence that followed Bongo’s contested victory in 2009, many residents, who had stocked up on food, stayed indoors. Shops and stalls usually open on Sundays were shuttered.

    In the clashes that followed Bongo’s 2009 victory, several people were killed, buildings were looted and the French consulate in Port Gentil, which saw the worst of the violence, was torched.

    An oil producer with a population of less than two million, Gabon is one of Africa’s richest countries.

    However, declining oil output and falling prices have resulted in budget cuts and provided fodder for opposition claims that average people have struggled under Bongo’s leadership.

    Official results from Saturday's vote are not due out until 1600 GMT on Tuesday