Category: Economy

The latest data shows broad-based growth across all major sectors, with the services and industry sectors recording particularly robust performance.

Services remained the dominant contributor to the economy, accounting for 46% of GDP. The sector expanded by 9% year-on-year, buoyed by double-digit growth in wholesale and retail trade (14%), information and communication services (19%), and public administration (14%).

Financial services rose by 8%, while hotels and restaurants saw a 5% increase. Education grew by 5%, though health services experienced a 1% decline. Notably, land transport expanded by 10%, offsetting a 10% drop in air transport, resulting in an overall 4% growth in transport services.

Industry contributed 23% to GDP and recorded a 9% growth in the first quarter. The construction sub-sector led with a 13% increase, reflecting ongoing infrastructure development. Manufacturing expanded by 12%, driven by strong growth in the production of metal products (up 22%), chemicals, rubber and plastic products (up 15%), and food processing (up 2%).

However, the mining and quarrying sub-sector contracted by 3%, weighed down by an 18% fall in coltan exports and a 12% decline in wolfram exports. In contrast, cassiterite exports increased by 9%, with processed cassiterite exports surging by 90%, even as raw exports declined by 5%.

Agriculture, which contributed 24% to GDP, recorded modest growth of 2%. Food crop production declined by 1% due to lower maize and beans output, down 5% and 1%, respectively, after a strong harvest in 2024.

Conversely, Irish potato and cassava production rose by 3% and 5%, respectively. Export crops posted mixed results: coffee production increased by 16%, while tea production fell by 9%, following a spike of 21% in Q1 2024.

Net taxes contributed the remaining 7% to GDP.

Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Yusuf Murangwa, outlined key adjustments to customs duties and tax rates when he tabled the national budget for the 2025/2026 financial year in Parliament on Thursday, June 12, 2025.

Among the main incentives, electric vehicles, hybrid cars, and electric motorbikes will continue to be exempt from customs duties to promote green mobility and reduce air pollution.

Additionally, luxury vehicles valued above $60,000 will benefit from tax incentives, while those valued at $60,000 or less will pay the standard 25% customs duty and applicable taxes.

The government is also reducing customs duties on several essential goods to ease the cost of living and support the local economy. For example, imported rice will face a 45% customs duty, down from the previous 75%. Wheat will be fully exempt from customs duties, sugar will be taxed at 25% instead of 100%, and cooking oil will attract a 25% rate, down from 35%.

Tax relief also extends to industrial and transport equipment. Road construction machinery and large textile and shoe manufacturing machines will be fully exempt from customs duties, while trucks with load capacities between five and twenty tonnes will have their customs duty reduced to 10% from 25%.

Public transport vehicles with more than 25 seats will be taxed at 10%, and those with 50 seats or more will be exempt.

To encourage digital financial transactions, electronic payment devices such as payment cards and point-of-sale machines will now be exempt from customs duties, a change from the previous 25% tax rate.

Minister Murangwa further explained that goods imported for sale in shops designated for security personnel will be fully exempt from customs duties, previously charged at 25%.

However, to protect domestic industries and support the Made in Rwanda initiative, some duties will increase. Notably, second-hand clothes will now be taxed at a fixed rate of $2.5 per kilogram, replacing the earlier 35% customs duty. Used shoes will be taxed at $5 per kilogram instead of 35%.

The total national budget for the 2025/26 fiscal year is projected at Frw 7,032.5 billion, with Frw 4,105.2 billion expected to be generated from taxes and duties.

The ambitious spending plan, unveiled on Thursday, June 12, by Minister of Finance and Economic Planning Yusuf Murangwa, reflects a strong commitment to strategic investments aimed at accelerating economic transformation and enhancing national resilience.

Presenting the budget to Parliament, Minister Murangwa stressed the importance of aligning fiscal priorities with Rwanda’s National Strategy for Transformation (NST-2), citing the need for sustained infrastructure development, enhanced service delivery, and inclusive economic growth.

“The Government is prioritizing spending to support investments that will help us achieve our NST-2 goals,” said Minister Murangwa. .

“We are also working to manage public finances carefully to reduce our budget deficit, stabilise debt, and make our economy more resilient to external shocks. At the same time, we want to improve household incomes and spending.”

The lion’s share of the budget, Frw 4.42 trillion (62.8%), has been allocated to economic transformation. Key investments include the construction of the New Kigali International Airport, expansion of access to electricity and clean water, modernisation of the transport network, and support for urban and rural settlement development.

The government is also focused on stimulating local manufacturing and exports to reduce the trade deficit, boosting the financial sector, promoting job creation, and strengthening climate resilience.

The social transformation pillar will receive Frw 1.53 trillion (21.7%) to improve healthcare and education services, strengthen social protection programmes, support family and gender promotion, and enhance disaster preparedness and nutrition services.

A total of Frw 1.09 trillion (15.5%) is earmarked for transformational governance. This funding will support service delivery improvements, public financial management, justice system reforms, and peace and security efforts, while also bolstering Rwanda’s economic diplomacy.

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The Frw 7.03 trillion budget will be financed through a mix of domestic and external sources.

Domestic revenues are projected at Frw 4.11 trillion, consisting of Frw 3.63 trillion in tax revenue and Frw 477.2 billion from other sources. External grants are estimated at Frw 585.2 billion, while loans, largely concessional, will contribute Frw 2.15 trillion.

Of the total expenditure, Frw 4.35 trillion will go toward recurrent spending, while Frw 2.68 trillion is allocated for capital investments, including equity funding and policy lending.

Rwanda’s budget announcement coincides with similar fiscal year presentations across East African Community (EAC) member states, all delivered under the shared theme: “Inclusive economic transformation through domestic resource mobilisation and resilient strategic Investment for job creation and improved livelihoods.”

According to the IMF, Rwanda’s economy expanded by 8.9 percent in 2024, driven by a rebound in agriculture and continued strength in services and construction. Inflation remained contained within the National Bank of Rwanda’s target range of 2 to 8 percent, supported by prudent monetary policy and improved domestic food supply.

Despite the widening of the current account deficit, mainly due to a surge in consumer and capital goods imports, the country’s foreign exchange reserves remained adequate, covering 4.7 months of imports by the end of 2024.

The IMF warned, however, that Rwanda’s fiscal position faces growing pressure, particularly from large-scale investments in the new Kigali International Airport, the expansion of national carrier RwandAir, and recent pension reforms. Public debt is now projected to peak in the 2025/26 fiscal year, with the PCI debt anchor expected to be reached by 2033.

“Sustaining fiscal consolidation remains vital to preserving macroeconomic stability and ensuring debt sustainability,” said IMF Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, Bo Li.

“The recently adopted tax reform package is a welcome step toward broadening the tax base and enhancing equity and efficiency.”

The Fund emphasised the importance of accelerating domestic revenue mobilisation and maintaining a credible path to fiscal consolidation. It also urged vigilance over fiscal risks, especially those stemming from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), increasing debt service costs, and limited access to concessional financing.

Monetary policy was credited for helping to keep inflation in check, but the IMF stressed that a data-driven approach would be essential moving forward, especially in light of potential inflationary pressures from fiscal loosening and tax reforms. Greater exchange rate flexibility and ongoing improvements to the foreign exchange market were identified as key to external adjustment.

The Fund also highlighted the need for enhanced oversight of credit growth, including in the microfinance sector, and closer monitoring of large exposures to safeguard financial stability.

Rwanda was praised for strong program implementation under the PCI, having met all quantitative targets and completed most structural benchmarks. Notable achievements included advancements in SOE governance, public financial management (PFM) digitalisation, and monetary statistics.

IMF noted that the two remaining structural benchmarks, approval of a comprehensive tax policy package and rollout of the Global Master Repurchase Agreement, were completed with delays.

On climate-related reforms, the IMF acknowledged Rwanda’s continued momentum, noting significant progress in climate budget tagging, green taxonomies, and the development of a climate finance agenda. The Fund encouraged further work in developing a pipeline of viable green projects to attract climate finance and support the country’s sustainability goals.

“Continued commitment to reform and strong engagement with development partners will be critical to sustaining progress and supporting Rwanda’s ambitious development agenda,” the IMF stated.

The IMF Executive Board statement comes two months after the conclusion of a two-week mission, led by Ruben Atoyan, that assessed the country’s reform progress under the fifth review of the Policy Coordination Instrument.

Speaking at the 2025 Astana International Forum, Nduhungirehe hailed the strategic potential of Rwanda-Kazakhstan relations, noting the opportunity to leverage Kazakhstan’s central geopolitical position and infrastructure projects to enhance trade and connectivity with Africa.

“I believe that the relations between Kazakhstan and Rwanda—and Kazakhstan and Africa in general—are entering a new era,” he said.

“Kazakhstan has a very high trade volume with countries and blocs in the region, with trade with the EU at $50 billion, China at $ 45 billion, and Russia at $ 28 billion. But with Africa, it’s only $1 billion, which is still low, but it’s increasing,” he added.

Nduhungirehe highlighted Kazakhstan’s investment in infrastructure corridors such as the Trans-Caspian and the Trans-Afghanistan routes, which he said could connect Central Asia to Africa via the Indian Ocean, enhancing trade in key sectors including agriculture, mining, ICT and industry.

The minister’s remarks came as Rwanda and Kazakhstan recently signed a series of strategic cooperation agreements during President Paul Kagame’s official visit to the Central Asian nation.

The agreements, witnessed by President Kagame and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the Aqorda Presidential Palace, cover key sectors including ICT, education, finance, mining, agriculture, and diplomatic relations.

During the visit, President Kagame praised Kazakhstan’s developmental achievements and its growing stature on the world stage.

“Kazakhstan has made remarkable strides in national development, matched by a growing and constructive role on the world stage. This speaks to your leadership, Mr President, and to the determination of the Kazakh people,” he said.

Tokayev, in turn, lauded Rwanda’s institutional strength and 8% economic growth, describing the country as a model of resilience. He reiterated Kazakhstan’s commitment to deepening ties with African nations.

Both leaders agreed to prioritise trade, investment, digital transformation, e-governance, and sustainable agriculture as key pillars of future cooperation. The new agreements are expected to pave the way for increased private sector engagement, knowledge exchange, and coordinated policymaking.

The Astana International Forum, held under the theme Connecting Minds, Shaping the Future, convened over 5,000 delegates from around the world to address pressing global challenges, including climate change, energy insecurity, and economic volatility.

During a session with Members of Parliament from the Public Accounts and Budget Committee, the ministry presented key priorities for the coming fiscal year. The Ministry of Infrastructure and its affiliated agencies have been allocated Rwf 615.1 billion, which will fund a wide range of projects covering transport, energy, water, sanitation, and housing.

According to Minister of Infrastructure, Dr. Jimmy Gasore, the government plans to continue expanding access to clean water, electricity, road networks, and environmental conservation measures.

A particular highlight is the ongoing construction of the Rusizi port, now 80% complete, with plans underway to initiate works on new ports in Karongi and Nkora following the identification of development partners.

In the energy sector, over 280,000 households are expected to gain access to electricity. The Rwanda Energy Group (REG) revealed that projects such as Nyabarongo II, with a generation capacity of 43.5 megawatts, and the expansion of the Nasho power plant are among those planned for the year.

Additionally, REG aims to replace the transformer at the Mukungwa power station and extend power to residents in Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru districts. The Energy Development Corporation Limited (EDCL) has been allocated Rwf 200 billion to implement these initiatives, including partnerships with the European Investment Bank and the Korean EDCF.

In terms of road infrastructure, the government plans to build 143 kilometres of new roads and rehabilitate 110 kilometres of existing ones. A further 131 kilometres of feeder roads to support agriculture will also be constructed. Major road projects include the Huye–Kitabi (53 km), Ngoma–Ramiro (53 km), and Muhanga–Rubengera (Nyange–Muhanga) routes.

Other urban transport improvement efforts include the Kigali Urban Transport Improvement Project (KUTI) and upgrades to key roads such as Sonatube–Gahanga–Akagera and Nyabugogo–Jabana–Nyacyonga (40 km).

To improve access to clean water, the government aims to provide safe drinking water to 500,000 new households. By the end of the fiscal year, Rwanda expects to have added 25,000 cubic metres of daily water treatment capacity, progressing toward the 2029 target of 180,000 cubic metres per day.

The plan also includes the rehabilitation of 665 kilometres of water pipelines and repair of 122 damaged rural water systems. WASAC Group has been allocated Rwf 110.3 billion to lead these efforts.

Sanitation also features prominently in the budget. The Ministry announced that work on upgrading the Nduba and Musanze landfills will be completed, alongside ongoing efforts to centralise and treat waste from latrines.

In the housing sector, the government aims to relocate 1,500 households from high-risk zones in 2025/2026. By 2029, this figure is expected to exceed 6,000.

Dr. Gasore noted that slum upgrading efforts have already led to the construction of 688 housing units, with another 879 planned for the next fiscal year. Redevelopment of informal settlements has so far covered 282 hectares, with plans to cover an additional 213 hectares in 2025/2026 and a total of 1,160 hectares by 2029.

In the area of environmental protection, more than 100,000 clean cookstoves will be distributed in 2025/2026, contributing to the national goal of reaching over 800,000 households by 2029.