The latter conducts regular evaluations of countries’ financial and credit profiles worldwide. The rating reflects Rwanda’s resilient economic growth, ongoing fiscal reforms to boost domestic revenue, and effective debt management.
The stable outlook acknowledges Rwanda’s challenges, including balance-of-payments pressures, regional security risks, and growing fiscal deficits.
However, access to affordable concessional financing and a favorable debt structure with extended repayment terms help offset these risks.
S&P notes that Rwanda’s debt servicing costs are significantly lower than those of similarly rated peers, with interest expenses projected to average 10% of government revenue from 2025 to 2028.
S&P Global forecasts Rwanda’s economy to outpace many peers over the next five years, driven by substantial public investments in infrastructure, such as the new Kigali International Airport and airline expansion, alongside projects in agriculture, energy, health, education, and tourism. Rwanda’s economy grew by 8.9% in 2024, with an 8% rise in the fourth quarter.
While agricultural growth was sluggish in 2023 and only moderately improved in 2024, favorable weather is expected to enhance output. The services sector’s steady growth is also likely to draw greater private sector investment.
Despite these strengths, S&P highlights Rwanda’s exposure to climate change, weather disruptions, and regional tensions.
The agency commends Rwanda’s revenue-enhancing measures, including higher tax rates, digital tax systems, and an expanded tax base, which are poised to strengthen fiscal stability and narrow deficits in the medium term.
S&P’s reaffirmation underscores confidence in Rwanda’s proactive economic strategies, strong growth potential, and resilience amid challenges.
During a session with Members of Parliament from the Public Accounts and Budget Committee, the ministry presented key priorities for the coming fiscal year. The Ministry of Infrastructure and its affiliated agencies have been allocated Rwf 615.1 billion, which will fund a wide range of projects covering transport, energy, water, sanitation, and housing.
According to Minister of Infrastructure, Dr. Jimmy Gasore, the government plans to continue expanding access to clean water, electricity, road networks, and environmental conservation measures.
A particular highlight is the ongoing construction of the Rusizi port, now 80% complete, with plans underway to initiate works on new ports in Karongi and Nkora following the identification of development partners.
In the energy sector, over 280,000 households are expected to gain access to electricity. The Rwanda Energy Group (REG) revealed that projects such as Nyabarongo II, with a generation capacity of 43.5 megawatts, and the expansion of the Nasho power plant are among those planned for the year.
Additionally, REG aims to replace the transformer at the Mukungwa power station and extend power to residents in Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru districts. The Energy Development Corporation Limited (EDCL) has been allocated Rwf 200 billion to implement these initiatives, including partnerships with the European Investment Bank and the Korean EDCF.
In terms of road infrastructure, the government plans to build 143 kilometres of new roads and rehabilitate 110 kilometres of existing ones. A further 131 kilometres of feeder roads to support agriculture will also be constructed. Major road projects include the Huye–Kitabi (53 km), Ngoma–Ramiro (53 km), and Muhanga–Rubengera (Nyange–Muhanga) routes.
Other urban transport improvement efforts include the Kigali Urban Transport Improvement Project (KUTI) and upgrades to key roads such as Sonatube–Gahanga–Akagera and Nyabugogo–Jabana–Nyacyonga (40 km).
To improve access to clean water, the government aims to provide safe drinking water to 500,000 new households. By the end of the fiscal year, Rwanda expects to have added 25,000 cubic metres of daily water treatment capacity, progressing toward the 2029 target of 180,000 cubic metres per day.
The plan also includes the rehabilitation of 665 kilometres of water pipelines and repair of 122 damaged rural water systems. WASAC Group has been allocated Rwf 110.3 billion to lead these efforts.
Sanitation also features prominently in the budget. The Ministry announced that work on upgrading the Nduba and Musanze landfills will be completed, alongside ongoing efforts to centralise and treat waste from latrines.
In the housing sector, the government aims to relocate 1,500 households from high-risk zones in 2025/2026. By 2029, this figure is expected to exceed 6,000.
Dr. Gasore noted that slum upgrading efforts have already led to the construction of 688 housing units, with another 879 planned for the next fiscal year. Redevelopment of informal settlements has so far covered 282 hectares, with plans to cover an additional 213 hectares in 2025/2026 and a total of 1,160 hectares by 2029.
In the area of environmental protection, more than 100,000 clean cookstoves will be distributed in 2025/2026, contributing to the national goal of reaching over 800,000 households by 2029.
The City of Kigali has outlined key development projects for the upcoming budget year, starting in July 2025. These include the upgrading of the Nyabugogo Bus Terminal, urban planning improvements in various parts of the city, and initiatives aimed at enhancing the welfare of residents in informal settlements.
The City plans to spend over Frw 251 billion in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, with this figure projected to increase to Frw 263 billion the following year, and Frw 306 billion by 2027/2028.
Upgrading settlements in Mpazi, Nyabisindu, Nyagatovu, and Gatenga
The City of Kigali continues its programme to improve residential areas across the city. Through the RUDPII project, upgrades will be made in Mpazi (Nyarugenge), Nyabisindu and Nyagatovu (Gasabo), and Gatenga (Kicukiro).
The entire project is estimated to cost over Frw 53.9 billion, with Frw 26.9 billion allocated in the 2025/2026 budget. This initiative is jointly implemented with the Ministry of Infrastructure and is expected to significantly improve living conditions in these areas.
Revamping Nyabugogo Bus Terminal
One of the most highly anticipated projects is the revamp of the Nyabugogo Bus Terminal, which includes the creation of a dedicated bus lane.
The total project cost is projected at Frw 288.6 billion, with completion expected by June 2030. Approximately Frw 13 billion is allocated for the 2025/2026 fiscal year.
Though implementation was supposed to begin earlier, the project was delayed due to a funding shortfall, specifically Frw 1.2 billion, or 18% in taxes, which the government has yet to disburse.
Completing road construction under the KIP project
The Kigali Infrastructure Project (KIP), launched in 2020, aims to build 215 kilometres of roads.
Completion is scheduled for 2030/2031, with a total projected cost of $404 million. So far, Frw 299 billion has been spent, and Frw 15 billion is allocated for the 2025/2026 budget.
Challenges facing this project include a $150 million loan and a Frw 88 billion budget gap that the City is still working to cover.
Upgrading settlements in Rwezamenyo and Kagugu
Another significant housing project focuses on upgrading Rwezamenyo (Nyarugenge) and Kagugu (Gasabo) settlements.
The total budget for this project is Frw 92 billion, with Frw 20 billion allocated for the 2025/2026 fiscal year. However, implementation still awaits a Frw 2 billion tax contribution (18% share) from the Government of Rwanda and a Frw 9 billion resettlement compensation fund.
Community-cooperative road construction
The City is also partnering with residents to build community access roads. Under this scheme, citizens contribute 30% of the cost, while the government covers the remaining 70%.
So far, Frw 1.1 billion has been raised for the 2025/2026 budget. However, the project is challenged by the City’s limited capacity to supplement the numerous requests for road construction.
Other planned developments
Improvement of informal settlements in Mpazi and Nyabisindu, with Frw 1.47 billion allocated.
There is also the installation of automated streetlights, with the project expected to cost over Frw 5 billion. The budget for next year includes ¥502 million (over Frw 4.9 billion) allocated for this project.
This was presented on May 8, 2025, by the Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Yusuf Murangwa, during the unveiling of the Budget Framework Paper (BFP) for the period 2025/26 to 2027/28.
The framework is aligned with the National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) and Vision 2050, focusing on sustainable, inclusive development.
The proposed Frw7 trillion budget will support strategic national projects, including the ongoing construction of the New Kigali International Airport in Bugesera, the expansion of RwandAir, and post-crisis recovery initiatives related to COVID-19, May 2023 floods and Marburg disease outbreak.
To fund the budget, the government projects Frw 4,105.2 billion in domestic revenue, comprising Frw 3,628.0 billion in tax revenues and Frw 477.2 billion from other sources. It also expects Frw 585.2 billion in external grants and Frw 2,151.9 billion in loans.
Spending will be split between Frw 4,395.1 billion for recurrent expenses—including salaries and operational costs—and Frw 2,637.4 billion for capital investments that support long-term development.
The full budget for 2025/26 is expected to be formally presented to Parliament in June 2025.
Minister Murangwa highlighted the country’s resilience and growth in the face of global challenges, noting that Rwanda’s economy grew by 8.9% in 2024, surpassing earlier projections of 8.3%.
“Rwanda’s growth momentum remains strong, despite a challenging environment caused by climate change effects, global inflation, geopolitical tensions, trade wars, among other factors. Our economic recovery has been resilient.
“The Government remains committed to maintaining macroeconomic stability and fostering inclusive growth by investing in key areas such as agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, social protection, and education,” he stated.
This growth builds on an annual average increase of 9.4%, reflecting the country’s continued efforts to strengthen and diversify its industrial base.
Among the sectors driving this expansion, electricity production stood out with a remarkable 23.2% year-on-year increase.
This substantial growth highlights the ongoing improvements in energy infrastructure and a rising demand for power, both from industrial users and households.
Electricity alone contributed 4.4 percentage points to the overall annual change—making it the most influential factor behind March’s performance.
Manufacturing, Rwanda’s largest industrial subsector by weight, recorded a 1.7% increase.
Within this category, food processing performed particularly well, growing by 7.8% compared to March last year.
The furniture and other manufacturing segment also saw a strong 19.3% rise, suggesting growing activity in small-scale production and consumer goods.
However, not all segments fared equally—textiles, clothing, and leather goods fell sharply by 11.2%, and the wood, paper, and printing industries declined by 8.2%, signaling possible structural or demand-related challenges in those areas.
Mining and quarrying, another key industrial activity, experienced a 4.1% increase compared to March 2024, while water and waste management rose modestly by 1.4%.
These sectors contributed marginally to the overall index but remained part of the broader industrial expansion.
On a month-to-month basis, March 2025 also showed signs of healthy momentum, with output rising by 3.9% compared to February.
Mining activity was especially dynamic during this period, jumping by 17.2%, while the manufacturing of beverages and tobacco products increased by 11.4%.
This upward trend illustrates Rwanda’s broader push toward industrialization, supported by strategic investments, policy reforms, and a commitment to reducing reliance on imports.
Speaking on the Long Form podcast hosted by Sanny Ntayombya, Murenzi defended the recent findings from the 7th Integrated Household and Living Conditions Survey (EICV7), highlighting a remarkable 12.4% reduction in poverty, while also rubbishing past accusations of data manipulation against Rwanda.
The EICV7 survey, released on Wednesday, April 16, revealed that Rwanda’s poverty rate dropped from 39.8% in 2017 to 27.4% in 2024, lifting approximately 1.5 million people out of poverty over seven years.
“That’s equivalent to 1.5 million people coming out of poverty within a period of seven years,” Murenzi said, describing the reduction as a “surprise” given the stagnation in poverty levels between 2014 and 2017, when the rate only fell from 39.1% to 38.2%.
He attributed the progress to cumulative government efforts and methodological updates, including capturing food consumed outside homes, such as through school feeding programs, and adjusting the calorie threshold for extreme poverty from 2,500 to 2,400 calories per day.
Murenzi strongly defended NISR’s data integrity, addressing a 2019 Financial Times article that accused Rwanda of misrepresenting poverty statistics.
“We don’t give weight to such criticism because of who they are,” he stated, arguing that critics like the Financial Times lack the statistical expertise of authoritative institutions like the World Bank, Iinternatinal Monetary Fund (IMF), and United Nations (UN) Statistics Division, all of which validate NISR’s methodologies.
He stressed Rwanda’s adherence to international standards, noting, “What we do across various statistics… are things done following international standards practices.”
Murenzi also refuted claims of World Bank dissent, highlighting ongoing collaboration, with a senior World Bank economist present at the EICV7 launch to endorse the findings.
The NISR chief underscored the institute’s independence, denying any political pressure to manipulate data.
“There’s no pressure for me because I’m not the one implementing,” he said, explaining that NISR’s role is to measure, not implement, policies.
He pointed to NISR’s transparency in reporting unfavourable trends, such as unemployment rising to 21% during COVID, negative GDP growth, and inflation peaking at 20% in 2022.
Murenzi also cited NISR’s rigorous approach to evaluating local government performance (Imihigo), using evidence-based checks like household sampling and site visits to counter inflated claims.
Beyond poverty, the EICV7 highlighted Rwanda’s inequality challenges, with a national Gini coefficient of 0.37 indicating moderate inequality, while Kigali’s 0.44 reflects a higher wealth gap.
“In Kigali… you have a concentration of those in the country who are well off,” Murenzi explained, noting that provinces show lower inequality (0.27–0.3) due to smaller disparities.
He clarified that this does not mean provinces are uniformly poor, but rather that wealth gaps are less pronounced outside the capital.
Murenzi also addressed Rwanda’s Vision 2035 goal of achieving upper-middle-income status, requiring a GDP per capita of approximately $4,000 by 2035. Acknowledging the ambition, he noted that it demands annual growth of around 12%, far exceeding recent trends.
“There’s no ambiguity that this ambition requires another change in the way things are done,” he said, citing government-wide efforts to enhance efficiency and evidence-based policymaking.
He envisioned an expanded role for NISR, with analysts working directly with ministries like Agriculture to optimise interventions.
“We are saying our role is going to include sending our analysts to work with ministries… to say in your interventions how is evidence,” he added.
On poverty metrics, Murenzi clarified why Rwanda’s poverty line ( 560,000 RWF/year, or $400 at 1,400 RWF/USD) differs from the World Bank’s $2.15/day global benchmark.
“Every country has its poverty line because it is reflecting the context the cost of living,” he said, noting that Rwanda’s line accounts for local costs, unlike the World Bank’s standardized measure for cross-country comparisons.
The extreme poverty threshold, set at 2,400 calories per day, aligns with World Food Programme standards, reflecting Rwanda’s evolving economic activities from subsistence farming to mixed sectors.
Murenzi emphasised data accessibility, confirming that the EICV7 report and anonymised raw data are available on NISR’s website.
“The report is already on our website. We are already tweeting it and sharing a link,” he said, adding that the data’s transparency allows independent verification.
According to a prospectus issued by the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR), the fixed coupon bond, designated FXD 9/2025/10YRS, will be issued on April 23, 2025, and will mature on April 13, 2035.
The proceeds will be directed towards development of infrastructure projects and efforts to deepen the country’s capital markets.
The interest rate will be determined at the close of a book-building process on Wednesday, April 23, 2025 at 4:00 PM Kigali time. Semi-annual interest payments will commence on October 24, 2025.
The bond is open to both resident and non-resident investors with a Central Securities Depository (CSD) account, and the minimum investment is FRW 50 million for competitive bids and FRW 100,000 for non-competitive bids.
“The allotment process will cater to both retail and institutional investors, following EAC common market protocols,” BNR stated. Bids will be accepted from April 21 to April 23, with results expected by 5:00 PM on issuance day. Settlement is scheduled for April 25.
Fitch ratings in November 2024 maintained Rwanda’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘B+’ with a stable outlook, citing strong governance and sound macroeconomic management.
The Rwandan government has doubled efforts to mobilize domestic resources, with treasury bonds increasingly becoming a primary tool for budget support and economic resilience. The economy expanded by 7.6% in 2024, underpinned by growth in services, agriculture, and construction.
Analysts say Rwanda’s continued success in the domestic bond market reflects investor confidence in the country’s long-term economic fundamentals and disciplined fiscal management. Previous issuances, including the FXD 6/2021/7YRS and FXD 4/2020/15YRS bonds, were oversubscribed.
“Putting together all the recent tariff increases, pauses, escalations, and exemptions, it seems clear that the U.S. effective tariff rate has jumped to levels last seen several lifetimes ago,” Georgieva said in a speech before the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings scheduled for next week.
“The complexity of modern supply chains means imported inputs feed into a broad range of domestic products. The cost of one item can be affected by tariffs in dozens of countries. In a world of bilateral tariff rates, each of which may be moving up or down, planning becomes difficult,” Georgieva said.
“The result? Ships at sea not knowing which port to sail to; investment decisions postponed; financial markets volatile; precautionary savings up. The longer uncertainty persists, the larger the cost,” she continued.
The IMF chief noted that rising trade barriers hit growth “upfront,” and protectionism erodes productivity over the long run, especially in smaller economies.
The IMF will quantify these costs in its new World Economic Outlook, to be released early next week.
“In it, our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries,” Georgieva said.
The IMF chief urged policymakers to redouble efforts to “put their own houses in order,” noting that most countries must “take resolute fiscal action to rebuild policy space,” setting out gradual adjustment paths that respect fiscal frameworks.
She also called for “agile and credible” monetary policy, along with strong financial regulation and supervision.
Highlighting the importance of “cooperation in a multi-polar world,” the IMF chief emphasized that trade policy must aim for a settlement among the largest players that preserves openness and delivers a more-level playing field – “to restart a global trend toward lower tariff rates while also reducing nontariff barriers and distortions.”
The 7th Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV7), conducted between October 2023 and October 2024, covered 15,066 households across the country. The report was officially launched by Prime Minister Édouard Ngirente at the Kigali Convention Centre on Wednesday.
The survey shows that the national poverty rate dropped from 39.8% in 2017 to 27.4% in 2024, with approximately 1.5 million Rwandans lifted out of poverty since the last survey.
“These achievements were realized over the seven years of implementing the first National Strategy for Transformation (NST1),” said Prime Minister Ngirente during the launch. “They were driven mainly by strategic investments made by the Government of Rwanda and its partners over the last seven years.”
He added: “The long-standing social protection schemes played an important role in improving the well-being of our citizens. These efforts have also effectively contributed to the creation of income-generating activities and job opportunities in Rwanda, and it is a clear demonstration of the impact that can be achieved through good planning and effective implementation.”
The rural poverty rate now stands at 31.6%, while urban areas report a significantly lower rate of 16.7%. The Western Province remains the most affected, while the City of Kigali reports the lowest poverty levels.
Among the districts, Musanze recorded the most dramatic improvement, with poverty levels falling from 42.3% to 21.0%—a 21.3 percentage-point drop.
Only 14 districts had more than 40% of their population living in poverty in 2024, down from 22 districts in 2017. Meanwhile, 16 districts now report poverty rates below the national average.
Extreme poverty also declined sharply, dropping by 5.9 percentage points compared to 2017. The national extreme poverty rate now stands at 3.1%.
According to NISR Director General Ivan Murenzi, a Rwandan needs at least 560,027 Rwandan Francs annually to meet the basic cost of food and non-food necessities.
The report also highlighted improvements in other socio-economic indicators, particularly in rural areas, where access to electricity, mobile phones, internet, and improved drinking water sources has significantly increased. Household access to electricity rose from 34.4% to 72%; mobile phone ownership increased from 66.9% to 84.6%; and internet access grew from 17% to 30%.
Speaking at the event, Minister of Finance and Economic Planning Yusuf Murangwa described the release of the report as timely, noting that it will support evidence-based policymaking to achieve the goals of the Second National Strategy for Transformation (NST2).
“These results will define where and how the government and partners should invest to get maximum results for NST2 objectives by 2029,” he stated.
The new tariffs are set to take effect from Thursday.
Beijing has called on the international community to unite against Trump’s tariffs, as Chinese exporters face significant challenges from the new levies.
In 2024, the US imported approximately $440 billion worth of goods and services from China, while China imported around $145 billion in goods and services from the US.
