From economic strategies to security concerns, Trump’s policies impacted African nations in ways that left some leaders hopeful for continuity while others are more cautious.
Now, as Trump prepares to re-enter the political arena, African leaders—particularly from Rwanda, South Africa, and other key nations—are closely monitoring the shifts they expect in U.S. engagement with the continent.
{{A shift in approach?}}
Among the most notable African leaders expressing cautious optimism is Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, who has pointed out that while the political transformation in the U.S. is significant, it is likely to bring changes in the approach to African affairs.
Speaking at a press conference on January 9, 2025, Kagame expressed hope that the new administration would take a more nuanced approach to regional conflicts, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
President Kagame acknowledged that U.S. foreign policy would inevitably evolve, with potential shifts in how the U.S. handles African geopolitical issues.
Kagame’s remarks reflect a broader sense of anticipation across the continent. After Trump’s first term, which many African leaders felt was marked by a lack of meaningful engagement, there is now a renewed hope that his second term could recalibrate U.S. policy toward Africa.
While concerns linger about U.S. interventionism, leaders are hopeful that Trump will focus on diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts and enhance economic partnerships, particularly in countries experiencing unrest, like the DRC.
President Kagame has consistently emphasized that Rwanda is not the cause of the ongoing insecurity in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). He points to historical events, particularly the drawing of boundaries and the FDLR terrorist group’s presence in Congo, as the major contributors to the current conflict.
Kagame has often expressed concerns about the DRC’s internal governance, which has led to the persecution of Congolese Tutsis, the rise of the M23 rebel group, and refugee flows into neighbouring countries, including Rwanda. He argues that such internal issues within the DRC contribute to regional instability.
Additionally, the Head of State has raised concerns about the security threat posed by the FDLR terrorist group, which comprises remnants of those who participated in the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi and fled to the neighbouring DRC. Kagame insists that the group, now collaborating with the Congolese government, continue to be a source of instability despite ongoing mediation efforts.
“The FDLR question has to be answered,” he said in a past address, urging the international community and the media to be objective and not to view the crisis through biased lenses.
{{Economic and trade relations}}
One of the areas of greatest interest to African nations is the future of U.S.-Africa trade relations. Trump’s first term saw a push for renegotiated trade agreements, including the U.S.-Kenya Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which was part of a broader strategy to encourage trade over aid.
The Prosper Africa initiative, launched in 2018, sought to increase trade and investment flows between the U.S. and African nations. While these policies were seen as a move away from traditional aid and toward economic partnerships, African leaders are watching to see whether these trends will continue.
Under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), African countries benefit from preferential trade access to the U.S. However, concerns remain about Trump’s “America First” rhetoric, which could impact trade flows.
With rising economic challenges across the continent, African leaders are keen to ensure that U.S. policies do not disrupt vital trade ties. African leaders hope that Trump’s second term will foster an environment that promotes mutually beneficial economic growth, including foreign direct investment in key sectors like infrastructure and technology.
{{Security and counterterrorism}}
Security remains a primary concern for many African nations, especially in regions plagued by terrorism and insurgency. Trump’s first term was marked by a sustained U.S. military presence in Africa, particularly in the Horn and Sahel regions, where the U.S. played a significant role in counterterrorism efforts.
The Trump administration supported African military forces, especially in countries like Somalia, where the Al-Shabaab militant group has been a persistent threat. U.S. military involvement included intelligence-sharing, direct strikes, and training African security forces to combat extremist groups.
Africa’s leaders will be closely monitoring whether Trump maintains or strengthens these security commitments during his second term. Leaders from the East African Community and the Sahel region, will be watching to see if the U.S. continues its counterterrorism efforts and assists African countries with the resources needed to fight groups like Al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, and ISIS affiliates.
Given the ongoing instability in places like Somalia and Mali, African nations are keen to ensure that Trump’s foreign policy continues to prioritize regional security.
{{Health and humanitarian policy}}
Trump’s “America First” stance extended to foreign aid policy, with significant cuts proposed for U.S. development assistance during his first term. His administration’s approach to health aid, particularly the continuation of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), was scrutinized, with critics worried that the U.S. might pull back support for vital health programs across Africa. The global gag rule, which restricts U.S. foreign aid funding for organizations that provide or advocate for abortion services, remains a point of concern for many African nations.
As Trump begins his second term, African leaders, especially those from countries with pressing health challenges, are apprehensive about the continuation or expansion of the global gag rule and whether Trump will reduce U.S. aid further. The implications of such policies on maternal health, HIV/AIDS treatment, and overall healthcare could have serious consequences for African nations already facing health crises.
{{Climate change and international cooperation}}
Trump’s scepticism toward climate change and his decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement during his first term raised alarms, particularly in Africa, where the effects of climate change—such as droughts, floods, and food insecurity—are increasingly pronounced.
African leaders are concerned that a continuation of Trump’s climate policies could further undermine global efforts to address climate challenges. As many African nations are heavily reliant on international partnerships for climate funding and adaptation, Trump’s approach to environmental issues will be closely scrutinized.
In addition to climate concerns, African leaders are paying attention to how Trump will handle international cooperation on global challenges. The growing influence of China in Africa, particularly in terms of infrastructure development and investment, adds another layer of complexity.
Many African countries are navigating a delicate balancing act between U.S. foreign policy, Chinese investments, and their own aspirations for economic development. Trump’s stance on global alliances and international agreements will likely have a significant impact on the way African countries engage with both the U.S. and China.
As President Kagame mentioned in his recent press conference, Africa finds itself at a moment of global flux, with changes occurring at a rapid pace.
While African leaders, including Kagame, remain hopeful that Trump’s second term will bring about meaningful engagement on key issues, they are also pragmatic. The real test will be in the tangible actions the Trump administration takes in relation to Africa.
