Author: Théophile Niyitegeka

Bugesera youth volunteers organization gets new members

{Ninety-four youth in Bugesera have signed up as members of Rwanda Youth Volunteers in Community Policing (RYVCP) and committed to ensuring public safety in their neighborhoods.}

They made the commitment on January 30, during a meeting held at Bugesera District offices and drew over 150 RYVCP members.

The meeting aimed at electing the new committee members at a Sector level.

It also reviewed their performance and partnership with other institutions in fighting and preventing crime through increased awareness campaigns, sharing of timely information, and other activities that would contribute to community and national development.

The District Community Liaison Officer (DCLO) of Bugesera, Assistant Inspector of Police (AIP) Cyprien Uwitonze, while welcoming the new youth crime preventers said that “public safety is the only way to ensure the country’s development.”

To achieve that, he said, youth need first to distance themselves from unlawful acts and remain committed towards contributing to activities that develop both the individual and the nation.

He argued them to put more efforts in whatever they do most especially forming up partnership with residents in their respective communities.

“Ignite community policing initiatives like the concept of neighborhood watch as to overcome any security challenge that can affect someone in the next door and seek to form more cooperation or partnership with security agencies in sharing timely information that would assist in crime prevention, detection and arrests of criminals,” he said.

He emphasized that Rwanda National Police remains committed to supporting their noble cause to preserve and ensure safety and security.

The executive secretary for Rilima sector, Gasirabo Gaspard commended the role played by the youth in equally determining Rwanda’s has a brighter future through supporting vulnerable communities, carrying out crime prevention awareness programs in schools and communities especially against drug abuse, corruption, gender and domestic violence, among others.

Jean Pierre Niyibizi, the coordinator of RYVCP in Bugesera said the youth members resolved to remain committed to ensuring security and safeness in neighborhoods through increased awareness, real time information sharing, and supporting the vulnerable as part of the human security programme.

The youth organisation has about 60, 000 members countrywide.

February 1, 2017
Smoking gobbles up almost 6 percent of global health spend and nearly 2 percent of world’s GDP

{In 2012 this amounted to US$ 1436 billion, nearly 40 percent of which was borne by developing countries.}

Smoking consumes almost 6 per cent of the world’s total spend on healthcare and nearly 2 per cent of global GDP, reveals the first study of its kind, published in the journal Tobacco Control.*

In 2012 the total cost amounted to US$ 1436 billion, with nearly 40 per cent of this sum borne by developing countries, the calculations show.

The detrimental impact of smoking on national health systems and economies has been widely studied since the 1960s, but most of these studies have focused exclusively on high income countries, say the researchers.

They wanted to include low and middle income countries to come up with more accurate estimates of the total global cost. And so they included data from 152 countries representing 97% of the world’s smokers, from Africa, the Americas, the Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Western Pacific.

They used the ‘cost of illness’ approach, first devised in 1960. This divides the economic impact of an illness into direct costs, such as hospital admissions and treatment, and indirect costs representing the value of productivity lost to death and disability in current and future years, for a given year.

The direct and indirect costs are then added up to provide the overall societal cost, usually expressed as a percentage of annual gross domestic product (GDP).

The researchers trawled through four leading research databases for relevant studies on direct costs, finding 33, and covering the 44 countries which account for 86% of the world’s total spend on healthcare.

They estimated the indirect costs, using a validated method (HCM) which calculates the current value of productivity lost to illness/disability and death.

And they used data from sources such as the World Health Organization and the World Bank to uncover information on the proportion of ill health and death attributable to smoking, national employment rates, and GDP for each of the 152 countries, to inform their calculations.

These showed that in 2012, diseases caused by smoking accounted for 12% (2.1 million) of all deaths among working age adults aged 30-69 — with the highest proportion in Europe and the Americas. This figure included 1.4 million adults who would have been in the workforce.

The number of working years lost because of smoking related ill health added up to 26.8 million, 18 million of which were lost to death with the remainder lost to disability.

In terms of health spend attributable to smoking, this totalled US$ 422 billion, equivalent to nearly 6% of the global total, with the highest share in Europe and the Americas. In Eastern Europe alone, the calculations indicated that this proportion was 10% of the total healthcare spend for that sub-region.

Based on all these figures, the researchers calculated that the total economic cost of smoking was US$ 1436 billion in 2012, equivalent to 1.8% of the world’s GDP, overall. But there were substantial regional/subregional variations.

The equivalent proportion of the GDP of Canada and the US combined was 3%, and 2.5% in Europe, and 3.6% in Eastern Europe.

Almost 40% of the global economic cost was borne by low and middle income countries; the four BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — accounted for 25% of it.

The researchers point out that their calculations did not include the health and economic harms caused by second hand smoke or smokeless forms of tobacco, and that their estimates of lost productivity applied only to those who were economically active.

But they emphasise that in 2015 the UN General Assembly adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This includes 17 goals that all member states have signed up to achieve by 2030. Goal 3 includes a target to cut by a third early deaths from non-communicable diseases, such as those caused by smoking, and to strengthen national implementation of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

“Smoking imposes a heavy economic burden throughout the world, particularly in Europe and North America where the tobacco epidemic is most advanced,” they conclude.

They add: “These findings highlight the urgent need for all countries to implement comprehensive tobacco control measures to address these economic costs, while also helping to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of the member states.”

February 1, 2017
How the new hi-tech traffic control devices work

{Following the launch of the hi-tech traffic management system in December last year, Rwanda National Police (RNP) has rolled out the system in the City of Kigali and on major highways.}

The Hand Held Terminal (HHT) and Automated Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) partly replace the old manual system of fining and controlling traffic offenders.

The HHT is a cashless system where penalized traffic offenders can pay using smart card, VISA or telecom banking systems while the ANPR is a computerized camera installed in a traffic vehicle that automatically checks the status of vehicles.

The spokesperson for traffic and road safety department, Chief Inspector of Police (CIP) Emmanuel Kabanda, said that the devices are “one hundred percent operational in Kigali.”

“We are in the process of replacing the old system countrywide in the next coming months,” CIP Kabanda said.

He, however, said that the new hi-tech system has challenged some drivers especially on the process of payment.

“The HHT and the ANPR are part of the wider Information Management System that will predominantly replace all traffic-related services that were previously handled manually, including doing both theory and practical driver’s license tests,” said CIP Kabanda.

How the HHT works

“The Hand-Held Terminal (HHT), among others, replaces the usual paper traffic fine receipt. It scans the driver’s license and the offender receives an instant message indicating the type of offence committed and the fine. It has been made easy that the offender can pay right there using VISA or smart cards, Mobile Money, Tigo Cash or Airtel Money,” said Kabanda.

To pay using telecom banking systems, you go through Irembo (online platform) by dialing *909#, select the preferred language (English or Kinyarwanda), go to option 14 on ‘Amande exhibition and fine management, enter the contravention number, proceed to the option of which fine you are paying for, and send.

The system automatically generates the billing ID, which is used to pay through the normal procedures.

For example, those using MTN Mobile Money will dial *182#, select preferred language, go to option three (pay bills); go to Irembo Services, fill in the given billing ID. You follow procedures.

“With the HHT, there is no more confiscation of the offender’s documents like has been case. It is an easy cashless payment system, as a national policy, that erases all inconveniences the old system was causing in terms of queuing to pay in the bank and the process of reclaiming the confiscated documents, which in some cases required you to further face transport cost burdens to travel from one place to another to collect your permit,” noted CIP Kabanda.

He, however, clarified that the old payment system remains active for whoever wishes, and also for foreigners who have not subscribed to the local systems.

“The offender still has three working days to pay the fines using any of the three means that is convenient to him or her.”

He noted that failure to clear the penalties in three days, the offender is put on the “watch list” and that such defiance adds up to the list to which the conduct of the driver is valued.

“This hi-tech system is built in a way that each offence committed by a driver or vehicle is recorded and can be viewed, and can be the base for further action to defiant driver including suspending the license.”

The Automated Number Plate Recognition therefore recognizes if the vehicle is on the wanted list for certain offences, and can automatically check the validity of the vehicle’s mechanical inspection certificate, insurance, the owner and its crash or traffic offences’ records.

With the new system, owners of vehicles will also be booking online to have their automobiles’ mechanical status checked, and they will be receiving instant messages on where, when and the time the vehicle will be inspected.

“The Information management System will integrate other institutions like immigration, Rwanda Revenue Authority (RRA) and National Identification Agency, which also play a role in traffic management.”

The devices, he noted, will also help to identify forged driver’s license.

February 1, 2017
3 tech habits that inspire trust

{Technology has helped relationships; it has enhanced communication and has helped keep couples together no matter the distance. But then, it has also made cheating and unfaithfulness easily accessible, and has also created a sense of jealousy, competition and rivalry among couples.}

Once jealousy and rivalry starts to enter a relationship, then that relationship is close to facing doom. These habits can help inspire trust in your relationship.

{{1. Sharing each other’s passwords}}

Sharing each other’s passwords across various social media platforms creates this sense of trust and honesty. It passes a message that you both have nothing to hide, and you’re true to each other.

{{2. Posting on each other’s walls}}

Sharing items on each other’s walls helps create a sense of acknowledgement that will pass a message that you are both happy and satisfied with the relationship. This habit will also inspire trust.

{{3. Updating your relationship status}}

Updating your relationship status from single to “in a relationship”, and tagging your partner, will help create a sense of acknowledgement and pride, and will help inspire trust, in that you aren’t ashamed to tell the world that you are hooked up.

Social media and tech can in many ways inspire jealousy and suspicions, but these habits will help breed trust.

February 1, 2017
Rwamagana: About 2000 students sensitized on effects of abusing drugs

{Rwanda National Police (RNP) has urged about 2000 students of GS Gahengeri in Rwamagana District to keep away from illicit drugs to avoid ruining their lives.}

The call was made by the District Community Liaison Officer (DCLO) Inspector of Police (IP) Goreth Uwimana, during an awareness campaign held at the school on January 30.

In her address to the students, Uwimana reminded them that most people get involved in trafficking of drugs as means of getting quick money and in the process cause irreparable harm to many lives.

“The problem with narcotics is that anyone can be a victim irrespective of the age. This, in turn, affects many areas such as education, health, morals and, of course, without forgetting security issues such as domestic violence, robberies and homicides,” she said.

Most drugs registered in Rwanda are cannabis and illicit brew under different brand names such as muriture, bareteta, yewe muntu and ibikwangari, which are brewed locally and other contrabands like Kanyanga, Blue Sky and other banned gin packed in plastic bags that are trafficked from neighbouring countries.

“Fighting drug abuse is one of the priorities of Rwanda National Police to ultimately combat all other crimes that are related to drug abuse,” Uwimana noted.

The DCLO told the students that one of the effects of drug abuse is mistreating and abusing the children in their families and communities by the abusers.

“Normally, a child subjected to any form of abuse can developed psychological trauma especially when parents are acting rudely under the influence of drugs. Whenever you encounter such a situation, report to the police in the quickest time possible.”

She called upon the students to say no to drugs and concentrate on studies which she noted is their primary objective.

“You are the police as well; when you say no to any illegal dealing or report anything unlawful, you are promoting safety, security and stability and that way, you are equally playing a policing role and building your nation as required. Youth are the future of our nation and our country’s development will depend on how healthy you are.” IP Uwimana said.

She reminded the students that drug abuse among the youth is one of the factors that lead to school drop-outs, while it partly threatens their security.

“Drug abuse has an effect on someone’s state of mind. Anyone who consumes such substances can’t perform well in class or even succeed in life. You should ensure you protect your future,” she said.

Uwimana added that “Some students perform poorly in schools because they engage in drug abuse and consume illicit brew. This also results into violence because they are under influence of these drugs; they engage in theft, assault, fornication which results into unwanted pregnancies and dropping out of school.”

The school headmistress, Bernadette Nikuze lauded Rwanda National Police for its awareness programmes and partnership, which builds trust with the people, and subsequently getting positive feedback.

February 1, 2017
Brain-computer interface allows completely locked-in people to communicate

{Completely locked-in participants report being “happy”}

{A computer interface that can decipher the thoughts of people who are unable to communicate could revolutionize the lives of those living with completely locked-in syndrome, according to a new paper publishing January 31st, 2017 in PLOS Biology. Counter to expectations, the participants in the study reported being “happy,” despite their extreme condition. The research was conducted by a multinational team, led by Professor Niels Birbaumer, at the Wyss Center for Bio and Neuroengineering in Geneva, Switzerland.}

Patients suffering from complete paralysis, but with preserved awareness, cognition, and eye movements and blinking are classified as having locked-in syndrome. If eye movements are also lost, the condition is referred to as completely locked-in syndrome.

In the trial, patients with completely locked-in syndrome were able to respond “yes” or “no” to spoken questions, by thinking the answers. A non-invasive brain-computer interface detected their responses by measuring changes in blood oxygen levels in the brain.

The results overturn previous theories that postulate that people with completely locked-in syndrome lack the goal-directed thinking necessary to use a brain-computer interface and are, therefore, incapable of communication.

Extensive investigations were carried out in four patients with ALS (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease) — a progressive motor neuron disease that leads to complete destruction of the part of the nervous system responsible for movement.

The researchers asked personal questions with known answers and open questions that needed “yes” or “no” answers including: “Your husband’s name is Joachim?” and “Are you happy?.” They found the questions elicited correct responses in seventy percent of the trials.

Professor Birbaumer said: “The striking results overturn my own theory that people with completely locked-in syndrome are not capable of communication. We found that all four patients we tested were able to answer the personal questions we asked them, using their thoughts alone. If we can replicate this study in more patients, I believe we could restore useful communication in completely locked-in states for people with motor neuron diseases.”

The question “Are you happy?” resulted in a consistent “yes” response from the four people, repeated over weeks of questioning.

Professor Birbaumer added: “We were initially surprised at the positive responses when we questioned the four completely locked-in patients about their quality of life. All four had accepted artificial ventilation in order to sustain their life, when breathing became impossible; thus, in a sense, they had already chosen to live. What we observed was that as long as they received satisfactory care at home, they found their quality of life acceptable. It is for this reason, if we could make this technique widely clinically available, it could have a huge impact on the day-to-day life of people with completely locked-in syndrome.”

In one case, a family requested that the researchers asked one of the participants whether he would agree for his daughter to marry her boyfriend ‘Mario’. The answer was “no,” nine times out of ten.

Professor John Donoghue, Director of the Wyss Center, said: “Restoring communication for completely locked-in patients is a crucial first step in the challenge to regain movement. The Wyss Center plans to build on the results of this study to develop clinically useful technology that will be available to people with paralysis resulting from ALS, stroke, or spinal cord injury. The technology used in the study also has broader applications that we believe could be further developed to treat and monitor people with a wide range of neuro-disorders.”

The brain-computer interface in the study used near-infrared spectroscopy combined with electroencephalography (EEG) to measure blood oxygenation and electrical activity in the brain. While other brain-computer interfaces have previously enabled some paralyzed patients to communicate, near-infrared spectroscopy is, so far, the only successful approach to restore communication to patients suffering from completely locked-in syndrome.

February 1, 2017
Men’s fashion:6 tips to save money on fashion and remain classy

{It’s hard to be a classy man and save money on fashion; it looks unachievable; I mean being classy comes with a heavy price tag, right? Wrong! You can actually be classy without having to spend massively.}

This is how to do that.

{{1. Buy quality }}

This might not be the kind of advice you’d want to hear, but buying quality is actually less expensive than buying quantity. For example, a good shoe will last for a very long time; it could last years and you wouldn’t still get worn out, but the same cannot be said about poor quality shoes. One quality shoe is way better than three cheap shoes; it’ll last longer, and you will look classy all the same.

{{2.Buy things that match }}

Another good tip for shopping classy and saving your money, is to buy classic items that can match with a lot of things. For example, a very good loafers can be worn with various attires, and even corporate attires, but an Oxford shoe will mostly fit with a formal attire, thus rendering the shoe unimportant when you want to dress casual or even semi-formal.

Buying quality clothes that can be worn for any event is a good way to shop smartly.

{{3. Take care of your clothes and fashion items}}

Maintaining your clothes, shoes, belts and other fashion items is a good way to save money. When they are properly taken care of, they’ll last longer, and you’ll save more money.

{{4. Shop clearance sales }}

You’ll be surprised at how many quality items you’ll find on the cheap during clearance sales. You can make use of this opportunity to shop cheap but yet classy items.

{{5. Be adventurous}}

When it comes to fashion and buying smartly, don’t just stick to what you know. There are so many places where you can get cheap but quality items, only if you are willing to be adventurous.

{{6. Forget big name brands}}

If you can’t afford those big name brands, then don’t bother impressing anyone. You can get lesser known brands and still wear quality and look classy.

If you want to be a classy man and save lots of bucks, then these tips are for you.

February 1, 2017
How stressful will a trip to Mars be on the human body?

{Preliminary research results for the NASA Twins Study debuted at NASA’s Human Research Program’s annual Investigators’ Workshop in Galveston, Texas the week of January 23. NASA astronaut Scott Kelly returned home last March after nearly one year in space living on the International Space Station. His identical twin brother, Mark, remained on Earth.}

Researchers found this to be a great opportunity for a nature versus nurture study, thus the Twins Study was formed. Using Mark, a retired NASA astronaut, as a ground-based control subject, ten researchers are sharing biological samples taken from each twin before, during and after Scott’s mission. From these samples, knowledge is gained as to how the body is affected by extended time in space. These studies are far from complete. Additional research analysis is in process.

Mike Snyder, the Integrated Omics investigator, reported altered levels of a panel of lipids in Scott (the flight twin) that indicate inflammation. Additionally, there was an increased presence of 3-indolepropionic (IPA) in Mark (the ground-based twin). This metabolite is known to be produced only by bacteria in the gut and is being investigated as a potential brain antioxidant therapeutic. IPA is also known to help maintain normal insulin activity to regulate blood sugar after meals.

Susan Bailey’s investigation focuses on Telomeres and Telomerase. It is understood that when looked at over many years, telomeres decrease in length as a person ages. Interestingly, on a time scale of just one year, Bailey found Scott’s telomeres on the ends of chromosomes in his white blood cells increased in length while in space. This could be linked to increased exercise and reduced caloric intake during the mission. However, upon his return to Earth they began to shorten again. Interestingly, telomerase activity (the enzyme that repairs the telomeres and lengthens them) increased in both twins in November, which may be related to a significant, stressful family event happening around that time.

Mathias Basner’s study, Cognitive Performance in Spaceflight, is looking at cognition, especially the difference found during a 12-month mission as compared to six-month missions. Following the one-year mission, he found a slight decrease in speed and accuracy post mission. Overall, however, the data does not support a relevant change in cognitive performance inflight by increasing the mission duration from six to 12 months.

In the Biochemical Profile investigation, headed by Scott Smith, there appeared to be a decline in bone formation during the second half of Scott’s mission. Also, by looking at C Reactive Protein levels (a widely accepted biochemical marker for inflammation), there appeared to be a spike in inflammation soon after landing, likely related to the stresses of reentry and landing. The stress hormone Cortisol was low normal throughout the one-year mission, but IGF-1 hormone levels increased over the course of the year. This hormone is implicated with bone and muscle health and was likely impacted by heavy exercise countermeasures during flight.

Fred Turek’s focus is on the Microbiome in the GI Tract — or “bugs” naturally found in the gut to aid in digestion. Differences in the viral, bacterial, and fungal microbiome between the twins were pronounced at all time points; however, this was expected due to their differing diet and environment. Of interest were the differences in microbial species observed in Scott on the ground versus his time in space. One shift was a change in ratio of two dominant bacterial groups (i.e., Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes) present in his GI tract. The ratio of one group to the other increased during flight and returned to pre-flight levels upon return to Earth.

Emmanuel Mignot’s investigation, Immunome Studies, looks at changes in the body before and after a flu vaccine was administered to each twin. Following flu vaccines, “personalized” T cell receptors were created. These unique T cell receptors increased in both twins which was the expected immune response that protects from catching the flu.

Chris Mason is performing Genome Sequencing on the DNA and RNA contained within the twins’ white blood cells with his investigation. Whole genome sequencing was completed and showed each twin has hundreds of unique mutations in their genome, which are normal variants. RNA (transcriptome) sequencing showed more than 200,000 RNA molecules that were expressed differently between the twins. They will look closer to see if a “space gene” could have been activated while Scott was in space.

Andy Feinberg studies Epigenomics, or how the environment regulates our gene expression. In the DNA within Scott’s white blood cells, he found that the level of methylation, or chemical modifications to DNA, decreased while inflight — including a gene regulating telomeres, but returned to normal upon return. On the ground, Mark’s level of methylation in the DNA derived from his white blood cells increased at midpoint in the study but returned to normal in the end. Variability was observed in the methylation patterns from both twins; however, this epigenetic noise was slightly higher in Scott during spaceflight and then returned to baseline levels after return to Earth. These results could indicate genes that are more sensitive to a changing environment whether on Earth or in space.

Through further research integrating these preliminary findings, in coordination with other physiological, psychological, and technological investigations, NASA and its partners will continue to ensure that astronauts undertake future space exploration missions safely, efficiently and effectively. A joint summary publication is planned for later in 2017, to be followed by investigator research articles.

February 1, 2017
Autism may begin early in brain development

{Brains of mice with autism-like symptoms develop neural defects when first circuits take shape.}

Autism is not a single condition, but a spectrum of disorders that affect the brain’s ability to perceive and process information. Recent research suggests that too many connections in the brain could be at least partially responsible for the symptoms of autism, from communication deficits to unusual talents.

New research from the University of Maryland suggests that this overload of connections begins early in mammalian development, when key neurons in the brain region known as the cerebral cortex begin to form their first circuits. By pinpointing where and when autism-related neural defects first emerge in mice, the study results could lead to a stronger understanding of autism in humans — including possible early intervention strategies.

The researchers outline their findings in a research paper published January 31, 2017 in the journal Cell Reports.

“Our work suggests that the neural pathology of autism manifests in the earliest cortical circuits, formed by a cell type called subplate neurons,” said UMD Biology Professor and senior study author Patrick Kanold. “Nobody has looked at developing circuits this early, in this level of detail, in the context of autism before. This is truly a new discovery and potentially represents a new paradigm for autism research.”

Subplate neurons form the first connections in the developing cerebral cortex — the outer part of the mammalian brain that controls perception, memory and, in humans, higher functions such as language and abstract reasoning. As the brain develops, the interconnected subplate neurons build a network of scaffolding thought to support other neurons that grow later in development.

“The cortex is a very important region in the adult human brain that undergoes a complex, multi-stage development process,” said Daniel Nagode, a former postdoctoral researcher at UMD and lead author of the study. “Because our findings implicate the earliest stages of cortex circuit formation in a mouse model, they suggest that the pathological changes leading to autism might start before birth in humans.”

To study the relationship between autism and subplate neuron development in mice, Kanold, Nagode and their collaborators began with a well-established mouse model of autism. The model involves dosing mouse embryos with valproic acid (VPA) on day 12 of their 20-day gestation period by injecting the drug into the mother mouse.

VPA has a known link to autism in humans and also induces autism-like cognitive and behavioral abnormalities in mice. For example, normal newborn mouse pups will emit frequent, high-pitched noises when they are separated from their littermates, but VPA-treated pups do not.

The researchers used a technique called laser scanning photostimulation to map the connections between individual subplate neuron cells in the brains of the mouse pups. Within the first week after birth, the VPA-dosed mice showed some patches of “hyperconnected” subplate neurons. In contrast, control mouse pups dosed with plain saline solution showed normal connections throughout their cortical tissue.

Ten days after birth, the patches of hyperconnected subplate neurons had grown more widespread and homogeneous in the VPA-dosed pups compared with the control pups. Because subplate neurons help lay the foundation for cortical development in all mammalian brains, a thicket of hyperconnected subplate neurons in the developing cortex could result in permanent hyperconnections.

“Subplate neurons form critical developmental structures. If their early progress is impaired, later development of the cortex is also impaired,” Kanold explained. “In a developing human fetus, this stage is a critical gateway, when subplate neuron circuits are the most abundant.”

If the same dynamic plays out in human brains, hyperconnections in the developing cortex could result in the neural pathologies observed in human autism, Kanold said. In mice as well as in humans, the critical window of time when subplate neurons develop is very short.

“The timing of the effects is important. The hyperconnectivity in VPA pups occurs only in small patches a few days after birth,” Nagode said. “But after 10 days, the hyperconnectivity becomes much more widespread.”

In mice, subplate neuron development takes place mostly after birth. Eventually, the subplate neurons die off and disappear, their job done, as other neural circuits take their place. In humans, however, the first subplate neuron connections form in the second trimester. By the time humans are born, most of their subplate neurons have already disappeared.

“Our results suggest that we might have to interfere quite early to address autism,” Kanold said. “The fetal brain is not just a small adult brain, and these subplate neurons are the major difference. There may, in fact, be other developmental disorders we can tackle using this information.”

February 1, 2017
Prediction of large earthquake probability improved

{As part of the “Research in Collaborative Mathematics” project run by the Obra Social “la Caixa,” researchers of the Mathematics Research Centre (CRM) and the UAB have developed a mathematical law to explain the size distribution of earthquakes, even in the cases of large-scale earthquakes such as those which occurred in Sumatra (2004) and in Japan (2011).}

The probability of an earthquake occurring exponentially decreases as its magnitude value increases. Fortunately, mild earthquakes are more probable than devastatingly large ones. This relation between probability and earthquake magnitude follows a mathematical curve called the Gutenberg-Richter law, and helps seismologists predict the probabilities of an earthquake of a specific magnitude occurring in some part of the planet.

The law however lacks the necessary tools to describe extreme situations. For example, although the probability of an earthquake being of the magnitude of 12 is zero, since technically this would imply the earth breaking in half, the mathematics of the Gutenberg-Richter law do not consider impossible a 14-magnitude earthquake.

“The limitations of the law are determined by the fact that the Earth is finite, and the law describes ideal systems, in a planet with an infinite surface,” explains Isabel Serra, first author of the article, researcher at CRM and affiliate lecturer of the UAB Department of Mathematics.

To overcome these shortages, researchers studied a small modification in the Gutenberg-Richter law, a term which modified the curve precisely in the area in which probabilities were the smallest. “This modification has important practical effects when estimating the risks or evaluating possible economic losses. Preparing for a catastrophe where the losses could be, in the worst of the cases, very high in value, is not the same as not being able to calculate an estimated maximum value,” clarifies co-author Álvaro Corral, researcher at the Mathematics Research Centre and the UAB Department of Mathematics.

Obtaining the mathematical curve which best fits the registered data on earthquakes is not an easy task when dealing with large tremors. From 1950 to 2003 there were only seven earthquakes measuring higher than 8.5 on the Richter scale and since 2004 there have only been six. Although we are now in a more active period following the Sumatra earthquake, there are very few cases and that makes it statistically a poorer period. Thus, the mathematical treatment of the problem becomes much more complex than when there is an abundance of data. For Corral, “this is where the role of mathematics is fundamental to complement the research of seismologists and guarantee the accuracy of the studies.” According to the researcher, the approach currently used to analyse seismic risk is not fully correct and, in fact, there are many risk maps which are downright incorrect, “which is what happened with the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, where the area contained an under-dimensioned risk.” “Our approach has corrected some things, but we are still far from being able to give correct results in specific regions,” Corral continues.

The mathematical expression of the law at the seismic moment, proposed by Serra and Corral, meets all the conditions needed to determine both the probability of smaller earthquakes and of large ones, by adjusting itself to the most recent and extreme cases of Tohoku, in Japan (2011) and Sumatra, in Indonesia (2004); as well as to determine negligible probabilities for earthquakes of disproportionate magnitudes.

The derived Gutenberg-Richter law has also been used to begin to explore its applications in the financial world. Isabel Serra worked in this field before beginning to study earthquakes mathematically. “The risk assessment of a firm’s economic losses is a subject insurance companies take very seriously, and the behaviour is similar: the probability of suffering losses decreases in accordance with the increase in volume of losses, according to a law that is similar to that of Gutenberg-Richter, but there are limit values which these laws do not take into consideration, since no matter how big the amount, the probability of losses of that amount never results in zero” Serra explains. “That makes the ‘expected value of losses’ enormous. To solve this, changes would have to be made to the law similar to those we introduced to the law on earthquakes.”

February 1, 2017