Author: Professor Nshuti Manasseh

Rwanda-Uganda Relations: An Informed Analysis

I have read extensively lots of views by various commentators on the above rather important and serious issue with interest and discernment as a party that claim informed understanding of issues that have characterised Rwanda-Uganda relations since 1997.

Issues as will be argued later that will need be addressed by Ugandan political elite instead of window dressing these which only serves to postpone the solutions at the expense of socio-economic welfare of two sister countries and a people that are bonded by historical underpins, blood relations, and location that defines their fate and thus destiny for generations to come.

This bond cannot be discounted, underwritten, nor demeaned by political machinations for this is very expensive to both countries and should thus be avoided and ironed out as and when these arises.

Trended!

Destabilization of Rwanda by Ugandan top political elite is as trended as it is ill intended strategy that in my opinion has only served to destroyed beyond repair the best ever strategic alliance that had immense economic as well as socio-political, benefits to both countries at least during the current Uganda’s political leadership.

Thus, current support Ugandan leadership has extended to RNC that has publically agitated its intentions to remove a democratically elected government in Rwanda (a myopic elusion at its extreme at its worst) and confirmed by President Museveni’s meeting with its top diplomates Charlotte Mukankusi and Eugene Gasana on 1st March 2019 (no accidental meetings with Presidents that happen anywhere in the world) speaks volumes of Uganda’s intention to destabilize Rwanda, an intention that is not only a political daydream, but one that has served to collaborate other past ill motives against Rwandan government, and Rwandese in general.

As will be argued later, mobilization of FDRL a genocidal out fit in DRC Congo against Rwanda has left many Rwandese dumbfounded with regard to intentions of Ugandan ruling elite, given that this terrorist outfit claimed the lived of over one million of our compatriots in 1994, has left an indelible scar on our conscious as a country and a people that any one, party or country that supports or is even sympathetic with it earns eternal wrath of Rwandans.

However, support of destabilizing forces by Uganda’s ruling elite is not a new phenomenon. What is new though is the form as well substance this support has taken over late. Thus, as way back as 1997/98 support for such negative elements by Uganda, as Major Furuma, Sebarenzi, Sendashonga etc is irrefutable.

Issuing of Ugandan passports to FDRL bigwig of Murwanashayaka, Hyacinth Rafiki, and Wallace Nsengiyunva in 2006 to travel to Europe to conduct their subversive activities against Rwanda shocked many in Rwanda then, but no more.

Facilitation by Uganda given to late Karegeya in 2007 and then to Kayumba Nyamwasa in 2010 when they were going into self-exile is in the know of Rwandans and is trended to earlier subversive activities by Ugandan political elite. As will be pointed out later, some of these so called ‘’dissidents’’ had the blessings of, and are in fact a machination of Ugandan ruling elite in their ill-conceived strategic project of destabilising Rwanda, that has fortunately not succeeded nor ever will, for any such move is known before it is implemented.

And the headache with the Ugandan ruling elite is why Rwandans get to know of such destabilization in real time, instead of the same being bothered as to why this should be done to a potential allay and a sister country. Reasons behind this unfortunate trend will be highlighted in subsequent articles.

Unprecedented

Nonetheless, this trend has reached unprecedented scale of late with dire consequences to the relationship between Rwanda and Uganda. Ugandan political elite have arranged and or organize destabilizing forces RNC, FDRL etc into the so called P5 located in DRC so as to destabilize Rwanda, a project that is dead in the water for Rwanda has more than capacity to deal with these elements despite what Ugandan political elite would have been told to the contrary by their RNC allies of evil.

As pointed out earlier, that Uganda can mobilize FDRL with their genocide ideologue of extermination of Tutsis in Rwanda, an ideologue akin to that ISIS is beyond comprehension whatever differences there may be between Rwanda and Uganda. A country can win a war against rag tag fighters, but not a well-entrenched ideologue.

That any country least Uganda which should understand this better can support this group (s) has baffled many Rwandans. Thus, LaForge Fils Bazeye who was the Spokesperson of FDLR and Lt Col Theophile Abega, who was FDLR Head of Intelligence, were arrested by the Army of the Democratic Republic of Congo at the end of last year.

They were arrested at Bunagana Border on their way from Kampala on 15th December, 2018 from where they had held talks aimed at destabilizing Rwanda’s security. These genocidal elements carried with them lots of information on mobilization of these and others against the government of Rwanda.

Rwanda has all this information. This is true to the information of activities of RNC renegades whom have accepted to join hands with FDRL at insistence of Uganda. That these developments have been collaborated by The UN Group of Experts Report published on 31 December last year is only the latest factual indictment of the Museveni regime for its anti-Rwanda activities.

The report details Uganda as a recruitment hub for groups that have declared war on Rwanda’s legitimate government. Denying this by Ugandan ruling elite or even by President Museveni himself “There is no question of Uganda supporting anti-Rwanda elements.” … does not and cannot negate the enormity of this unprecedented situation and on the contrary reinforces its magnitude and consequences.

Obote II antics

The above has led to arrests, detention, and torture of over 800 of innocent Rwandan civilians by Uganda operatives of Uganda’s Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence (CMI) and other Ugandan intelligence services akin to what happened to Rwandese in Uganda some of which were Ugandans by all definitions but were labeled Museveni supporters and spies by Obote II regime, and they were to pay a high price including under documented murders.

Some of us who lived in Uganda at that time have indelible memories of the same. And although this mobilized young Rwandese fighters to join NRA (National Resistance Army now UPDF) in large numbers and as will be argued later contributed fundamentally to President Museveni eventually rise to power in 1985, no Rwandese would have imagined least or expected that this would happen under President Museveni’s regime, a regime that was supposed to stop Obote II torture and murder of real and imaginary “enemies’ of his regime.

That this can now happen under the same President to whom these Rwandese were accused of supporting have left many Rwandese perplexed. Worse still this is done with, and in cohort with RNC renegades who identify innocent Rwandese for arrest by Ugandan intelligence tells it all. An alliance with a ‘’rebel’’ force for intelligence gathering on a neighbouring country is a situation so bizarre and with far reaching consequences.

Testimonies, and evidence of this heinous crime against Rwandese in Uganda abound despite the fact that Ugandans living in Rwanda live in peace and harmony alongside their Rwandese brothers and sisters which is expected for we are bound by fate and destiny that no political system can undo by any means or did whatsoever.

To be continued.

March 28, 2019
2017 Elections: The Moment of Truth

Last Saturday June the 17th , was yet another milestone in our politics, a day in which RPF’s National Congress that brought together over two thousands senior RPF cadres from the whole country all brought together by unity of purpose. Choosing a flag bearer for 2017 elections. This congress endorsed President Paul Kagame as their candidate of choice, a choice that was informed by his exemplary leadership record which was highlighted in the same congress, ranging from security and thus stability that is a rare commodity in most developing countries and of late in a number of developed countries. Economic development that has transformed our country from a failed state it was in 1994, to one of the fasted growing economies in the world and without resource endowment to speak of Social transformation and unity that had been elusive for far too long in Rwanda, and indeed in many post conflict countries, from Burundi to Iraq, CAR to Libya, South Sudan to Syria, name it.

The Venue

The endorsement of President Paul Kagame by RPF and a number of opposition parties was organized in the iconic and magnificent multi-billion RPF headquarters’ conference centre (RPFCC), with capacity to host over 2500 people, and one that gives convention centre a pinch in its architectural design and structure. This is another achievement by President Paul Kagame, in particular and RPF generally, and a sign that RPF is here to stay. This permanent home symbolizes permanency of a party that few other parties whether in the region or even beyond can lay claim. It also signifies the vision of our leadership and where we headed to. The venue did not only symbolize the vision and leadership of Chairman RPF, but also sent serious message like in our other development fit that, the very best for Rwanda is yet to come through RPF leadership. And so opposition party leaders present and who endorsed President Paul Kagame as their candidate of choice for the forthcoming election must have been more than convinced of the decision they had made.

Destiny Defined

The youth and indeed our future leaders were challenged by party Chairman to participate in our country’s politics, which is typical of a leadership that does what says and this was a call of duty above self. Unlike many Africa’s political economies where old politicians are replaced in the event of their death or serious disabilities, and even then by other old guards, ours is fundamentally different. Thus we have youthful Ministers, Mayors, parliamentarians and other bureaucrats who has contributed immensely to the development of our country. The message should have been received by our youth well, given the above assuring political environment in place. As a people and country, we have chosen to define our destiny, and own it up for this is a sustainable model of development unlike many prescriptive models imposed by the west that have failed to deliver to Africa’s political economy as well as to real economic sectors.

Prescriptive Destiny?

In 1998, at a conference with the then President of World Bank (Mr James Wolfensohn) in Oxford University, that brought together African academics economists in UK, central bank governors and other renowned African economists (which I attended), he did admit that, the World Bank’s structural adjustment programs (SAPs) which were a set of economic as well as political prescriptive conditions aimed at ensuring development of African countries, had total failed. They failed because they were not owned by Africans, least not designed to fit countries’ specificity, but rather, a one- size- fit all approach to our problems. They also failed because Africa was treated as one country and more insulting “Africans did not know what is good for them” an implied inference from all this.

Time is gone when Africa was ruled by a bunch of illiterates who succumbed to these schemes with consequences that, our next generations will have to contend with for long. This was true in economic matters as in politics, for the two are bed fellows anyway. You cannot disentangle one from the other. We have come along, and the journey is long, but at least we know where we are, and certainly know where we need to go. They are no more lectures; economic or political. The reverse could be true, if only humility prevailed in the west. It is not expected, but so bit. For even China, which was banished by the know it all, is a case study of a new development paradigm that have been called all sorts of terms ranging from modified socialism, controlled capitalism name it. At the end of the day, what is important is that, the model has yielded results to Chinese people. Results that have vindicated even its ardent critics in the west whose silence and collaboration with China, is a sign of admission that, they are bad lecturers least to themselves.

Prudent Lessons

Good news is, in case of Rwanda, our development is defined by ourselves and our friends and partners come on board to assist us. They no longer dictate to us the so called “Washington Consensus” that has nothing to show for it, except for a string of policy failures that have only served to retard the development of a continent that was at the same pace of development as Asian Tigers (some countries such as Kenya, Ghana were ahead of Asian Tigers) four decades ago, but is now said to be rising. Rising with the realization that, our development is our and ours only, and can only come from Africans.

Our development (economic or political) be it Rwandans, or African for that matter, has to be owned. And as long it gives results to our people, this is the ideal model we need and indeed deserve. What it all means is that, we should not allow anybody to lecture us on our political destiny as it has been for our economic destiny, which lectures have only yielded systematic failures that have been pretty expensive in all facets.

This narrative of ownership of our development agenda was a policy choice of President Paul Kagame, when in 2003, he was clear and emphatically that this was best way to go, and one that is sustainable. To some of us who were party to it, this was a tall order given our knowledge of Breton Wood Institutions (World Bank, and IMF) and their rigid prescriptive policies. Yet these institutions did yield to President Kagame’s development trajectory, for their believed in his leadership. I am not sure whether they believed in the success of this model of development at the time.
I am pretty sure they now do, for there is everything to show for its successful pursuit and few failures thereof if any. A fundamental challenge, and indeed negation of the “Washington Consensus” that remains academic.

This is a prudent lesson to other African economies, if only their leadership systems are ready and capable of undertaking such a model. There is no alternative to this model anyway. Own up, or settle for permanent developmental ‘paralysis’.

Professor Nshuti Manasseh is an Economist and Financial Expert

Email: nshutim@gmail.com.

June 23, 2017
2017 Elections: Sustaining a transformational leadership

Last week, Rwanda’s two major political parties namely Social Democratic party (PSD) and Liberal Party (PL) endorsed the candidature of President Paul Kagame as their presidential candidate even ahead of his given endorsement by RPF NEC slated this weekend.

To some observers/commentators this move was misinterpreted for reasons known to them, most of which are distortional of facts and or misinformation.

These observers/commentators allege that, leaders of these parties voted with their stomachs as this endorsement ensures that, they will retain their jobs after August 4th elections. This allegation is simply malicious in that, whether these leaders endorse President Kagame or not, they are assured of their jobs by virtue of the form of government in place where the winner does not take it all.

Our national unity government is such that, even if RPF wins hands off it is bound by political arrangements in place to share in government positions with other parties who have been in the coalition for some time now. In fact RPF cedes 50% of all senior positions to other parties depending on their performance in elections. This is true for ministerial positions, parliamentary, senatorial, ambassadorial and other senior positions in our country. Thus the aforementioned argument is a distortion of facts.

Some of the commentators also argue that, since these parties supported the 2015 referendum that led to the amendment of the constitution that granted President Kagame a third term, they can’t stand against him in the forth coming election. Where as this argument is valid, it nevertheless leaves out facts that led to such parties being party to the referendum. Some of the explanation to this development is informed by the experience of the leaders of these parties with President Kagame.

Hands on Experience:

Some of the leaders have held ministerial and other senior positions in our country and have hands on experience of working with and for President Paul Kagame. If one is open minded and most are, you can’t fail to appreciate the leadership skills and national decision making capacities endowed with President Paul Kagame, that leaves the rest questioning their own. His charismatic leadership style that is idealistic in nature, and yet delivers real results has baffled those who work with him. His ambitious out of text supply driven economics has demystified the laws of economics held very dear..demands creates its own supply. For President Kagame, supply creates its own demand. This is unorthodox in traditional economic theory, but one that has worked in Rwanda mainly due to his high moral authority that spurs this.

Admiration

It is such admiration of leadership qualities rare among most Rwandan leaders that has set him apart and led to his transformational capabilities against all odds unimaginable financial and human. It is this person of President Paul Kagame that these leaders endorsed. Thus their candidate as well. In my opinion, this is a personal endorsement of President Paul Kagame, and not party endorsement (RPF) for even if they are in national unity government each of these parties espouse different ideological agenda. Secondly, their endorsement is as a rational choice as it was for 95% of Rwandans who endorsed him in the 2015 referendum and should not be construed for selfish intent as this would be an insult to the intelligence of majority Rwandese whose endorsement was in national interest and not self interest.

Elite Political Consensus’, and Ideological Maladroitness

Other commentators have argued that, such a vote highlights weakness in these parties and for others a sign of ‘elite political consensus’, and ideological maladroitness. It is unfortunate to misinterpret high sense of discernment and appreciation of a heroic leader by leaders of others parties as sign of weakness or elitist when his transformational leadership has changed the lives of the poor of the poor through such schemes as Girinka, and ubudehe that provides safety nets to our poor folks; to the elite and business men as can evidenced by our urban economic landscape.

In case of elite political consensus, such term defines the opposite of Rwandan politics that are glass-root driven to serve all interests, void of entitlements, cronyism, and ethnic distributive economics that characterized old Rwanda for far too long.

Transformational leadership and Changes

That our country has experiences transformational changes in all sectors of our economy, and by extension in the lives of average Rwandans is not debatable even by the diehard critics of our government, most of whom have not been part of this change, and do not want to accept that it happened, for doing so would be to vindicate the mess they left in our country and with our country. Transformational changes has first and foremost been acknowledged and appreciated by rational Rwandans, and later on put on record by both multilateral as well as bilateral agencies, which have either been party to this change, or watchdogs over the same and have to give reports on such sectors as economy (in particular record poverty reduction levels of uplifting one millions Rwandans out of poverty), social sectors such as health, social security, unit and reconciliation, law and order, orderliness…pick any sector. These have been rated tops by international independent rating agencies

Such changes have been case study for other Africans and beyond, who have dubbed it many forms including ‘miraculous’, un-African (coordination of our activities and orderliness thereof) name it. But theses change have not been self-propelled. Rather, there has been causation process responsible for this. Exemplary leadership by President Paul Kagame which has mobilized and coordinated the underlying causation process that has led to the changes we witness.

Research Evidence:

In his research on development economics and defense, Bellaver (2004) posits that, leaders emerge once in lifetime of a developing nation and leave a developmental record that is unmatched for generations to come. He points out that, it is only strong institutions that can only sustain such transformation record after such leaders have left office, and without which such a record is but, a golden passing cloud. He then argues that, leaders are born and managers trained. That a country with a manager and not a leader, has nothing to show for her transformational agenda. If his theory can be validated in our case, President Paul Kagame, is such a lifetime transformation leader our country has ever had as his actions are hugely trended.
For most part, our institutions/achievements are still work in progress and in fact some are even in their conceptual framework, that, they cannot withstand serious shock, internal or external if these were to be subjected to change in leadership.

We have come from quite far as a people and country, but the journey is much longer too. Disrupting this process by any means and forms for emotive reasons or otherwise has a price tag, we may not afford to pay as a people.

June 15, 2017
2017 elections: sustaining our stability, development

This coming August, three countries namely Rwanda, Kenya and Angola will hold what political pundits have called pivotal elections. Pivotal for different reasons.

And in case of our country a number of commentators have of late been active on what type of elections Rwanda will hold, and nature underlying democratic dispensation in the same. Some have dubbed it done deal for President Paul Kagame as a candidate of choice specifically, and RPF showing in the same generally.

Commentaries have been advanced for all sorts of reasons ranging from the fact on December, 18th 2015, 98.4% of Rwandans voted in a referendum to allow President Kagame run not only for a third term, but also free to lead our country to 2034.

This they say will be repeated in the coming election which is in no doubt. Others allege that, no other candidate cannot beat RPF’s financial muscle and its country wide coverage and popularity and so competing in such a situation is a waste of time, for RPF will emerge a winner anyway. ‘Financial muscle’ per se although necessary in any election is by no means a sufficient condition to win an election, and as such this argument is flawed, for President Kagame’s delivery record is his most critical muscle to Rwandese which is held very dear to all and sundry.

Intentional Distortion of facts:

They are commentators who either have little, distorted knowledge of Rwanda and its environment or both and point out to the fact that, there is no political space for candidates to compete fairly (which is a misplaced attitude for we have over ten political parties in Rwanda).

One may argue that, having many political parties is not synonymous with having political space. Such argument is academic and straight jacket, for our context and history taught us that serious internal debate and consensus thereof serves our purpose and in fact fits pretty well with Rwandan culture that is traditionally void of confrontation. That is why they are no stone throwing and street heckling of opponents typical of most African elections which westerners see as a symbol of ‘African democracy’ never mind that, this does not happen in the west.

No one size fits all democratic Process

Every democratic process draws heavily from underlying historical context/ cultural values and social constructs in place so much that any other imported model is bound to fail. Which is why there are many variants of democratic dispensations world over so much so that, UK’s political systems is not the same as French or Italians etc. But in case of African countries, it is defined by high and mighty in the west otherwise it is not democracy. But this is neo-colonial hegemony that should not have place in modern African political economy given our stage of development.

Most if not all arguments above also comes mainly from detractors outside the country some of which were responsible for the heinous crime of genocide and nothing good comes from our political dispensation for they hold dear to their extremism views of sectarianism which is also backed condoned by their western backers/sympathizers.

These are inconsequential to the new Rwanda, which will move on regardless. In any case, political history shows that, a political party is only good or viable/electable if its chairman or leader of the same party is in the first place.

However, those arguing that, referendum handed President Paul Kagame a ticket for next election acknowledge that, he has transformed Rwanda from a failed state it was in 1994, to a fastest growing economy that is today, and a case study in development economics discourse.

This is evidenced by numerous statistics that rank Rwanda highest, from development, to security, from gender to incredible social transformation. They then argue that, competing with him against such miraculous turnaround is a waste of time. And they are right on this for, for Rwandese who know better than most their country, and its context can’t afford to lose such a transformational leader whose track record and exemplary leadership we can’t afford lose by choice. In any case leadership and management are about delivery. Period.

History has shown that, great leaders/statesmen/fathers of nations such as George Washington of USA, Winston Churchill of UK, and of late Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore among others emerge once in a lifetime of a nation and their exemplary leadership (assuming stable and sustainable environment in place) is not replicated thereafter. This is the case with own President Paul Kagame.

Anti-thesis

The rest of the above arguments are niceties of western media and one size fits all political frameworks advocates who are in themselves in shambles in the west given the popularist movements that have challenged and dislodged some of western democratic narrative of democracy that is at cross-roads. At cross-roads because it has been elite driven political systems that have more often than not benefitted the same elite at the expense of majority.

In fact one reason why President Kagame has delivered against all odds unimaginable is that, he has involved citizens in his development model which is anti-thesis of elitist western democratic order now under threat. And so benefits from miraculous Rwanda’s growth and development under exemplary leadership of president Kagame, has been shared and distributed equitably among citizens and even regions that have worked so hard for the same. The vices of entitlement, cronyism capitalism and opportunism (given in most African political economies and indeed in some western political economies) have been negated in the Rwanda’s development trajectory.

And so our 2017 election is pivotal to sustaining our stability and development. The rest are divisionary/distortional and wishful thinking of parties alien to our context. These are a history.

To be continued…

By Professor Nshuti Manasseh, Economist and Financial Expert

Email: nshutim@gmail.com

June 9, 2017