The program comes at a critical moment as Rwanda navigates the global economic ripple effects of the ongoing war in the Middle East, declining budget support, and rising domestic inflation. It aims to support Rwanda’s reform momentum, maintain prudent economic management, rebuild financial buffers, and safeguard growth ambitions.
Structured around three key pillars; strengthening coherent economic policies, managing fiscal and debt risks, and promoting private-sector-led growth with transparent oversight of state-owned companies, the program seeks to provide both stability and opportunity for the country’s economy.
“We are pleased with the progress on the ECF program, which will cushion the impact of the Gulf war and declining budget support while sustaining Rwanda’s growth, investment ambitions and structural transformation,” said Yusuf Murangwa, Minister of Finance and Economic Planning.
Rwanda’s economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025, growing by 9.4%, well above expectations. Inflation, however, rose to 9.2% in February 2026, surpassing the central bank’s target.
Strong exports of coffee and minerals improved the country’s external position, while imports, mainly of equipment and business materials, remained high.
Foreign exchange reserves remain comfortable, covering more than four months of imports, and recent tax reforms have strengthened domestic revenue collection.
“Rwanda’s economy remains resilient with strong 2025 growth, but prolonged war in the Middle East and tighter financing could pressure inflation, external balance, and debt. […] The IMF is committed to continue supporting the country in strengthening its policy foundations for advancing its reform and development agenda,” said Albert Touna Mama, IMF mission chief.
The war in the Middle East has contributed to expectations that growth will moderate to 6.8% in 2026. Rising global oil and fertilizer prices, combined with financing needs for strategic investments, continue to pressure the budget and trade balance.
Other risks include volatile commodity prices, weak global demand, and geopolitical tensions. Yet, Rwanda’s sound economic adjustments, ability to attract private investment, and supportive trade flows provide avenues for positive outcomes.
Under the new ECF program, Rwanda will pursue reforms aimed at durable private-sector-led growth, economic stability, external balance, and rebuilding policy buffers.
Key measures include implementing a credible medium-term budget plan, including the Medium Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS-2), tightening control over foreign-funded capital spending, strengthening risk management, and safeguarding social and priority expenditures to maintain debt sustainability.
Given inflation pressures, the National Bank of Rwanda will maintain appropriately tight monetary policy to bring inflation down to the medium-term target of 5%. Enhanced exchange rate flexibility, supported by regular price-based auctions, will help absorb economic shocks and rebuild reserves.
“The Government remains committed to implementing the reforms under this program to protect Rwandans from external shocks while building a stronger, more self-reliant economy,” Minister Murangwa added.
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